Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat – September 22nd, 2016

Paul Sporer: Good afternoon, everyone! We will get started in just a minute!

Ceej: Some think Shaw and company will be bad enough that Moncada is up early, while others think he’ll spend most of next year in the minors. What say you?

Paul Sporer: I think it’s mostly wishful thinking

Paul Sporer: It’s certainly possible, but I’m targeting a mid-season call up for him

JD15: How was the Kayne concert? I’m going in Minneapolis in October. Can’t wait.

Paul Sporer: Soooo good. I had a great time. Snapchatted a ton of it (psporer), although they were pumping the fog machines hard and the lighting was low so it all looks hazy, but just a great, great show. Third time seeing him for me

JD15: Musgrove (LAA), Estrada (NYY), and Cotton (Tex), which 2 do you prefer for Sunday

Paul Sporer: Still gotta go Estrada. I know he’s been shaky lately, but still has some really nice starts mixed in, including his last one. it’s harder to pick between Musgrove & Cotton, but I’ll lean Musgrove

Buck: Okay, admittedly non-roto, BUT – let’s say Vin Scully gets bored of retirement in a few months and decides he wants to come back, but this time in coaching and/or operations. What’s the highest job you think he could get? And who’s hiring him?

Paul Sporer: Best I could see is some special advisor if it happened (it won’t)

Daniel: What are your preferred 6×6 stats?

Paul Sporer: 5×5 plus UZR or pitcher double plays induced?

Paul Sporer: just kidding, I’d probably add OBP and holds? kinda vanilla, I know

Tomas: One waiver add left in a keeper, which hitter has the best chance of being productive in 2017? Drury, Toles, Gregorious or H Perez

Paul Sporer: Didi

Hannah Hochevar: Hi Paul. A month ago you thought Raul Mondesi II might have some value next year. What say you now?

Paul Sporer: Still a big prospect. Hasn’t done much this year, but he’s 20 so my outlook remains the same

Hannah Hochevar: Now that he’s with Searage, over/under 25 wins for Phil Coke 2017

Paul Sporer: Over by the All-Star break 🙂

TP for my Byung Ho: Please rank deez doods as keepers for next year. Ignore keeper costs please. 16 team keep four league. Myers, Desmond, Fulmer, Kluber, Lester and Kinsler. Thanks CHURCH

Paul Sporer: Myers, Des, Kluber, Kinsler, Lester, Fulmer

Reggie: Hear me out before you get the bouncer – I think I will draft Pineda next year, is there a reason to believe his periphs will meet his production or can you talk me out of having hope for him?

Paul Sporer: :puts a finger up as if to tell the bouncer, “no no, it’s ok, he’s fine”:

Paul Sporer: There’s certainly a chance and I plan to deep dive him more this offseason because despite my outspoken anti-Pineda stance, I remain intrigued. You may recall, I was a big Pineda believer for years, quitting him was new this year.

I’m curious if maybe he might be better served to walk MORE. Not as a purposeful thing like “oh I need to walk 4 today to win”, but maybe stop giving in to hitters and instead walk a guy to limit the damage and get the next batter. I think Joe Musgrove has had some of that this year

JD15: What are your thoughts on Fulmer and JBJ going into next season? I’m planning on keeping both, but part of me is thinking about trying to sell high on them (18 team, keep 12 for up to 5 years). Acquired both this year and they are very cheap. Do you think this is smart, or am I suffering from recency bias (neither have been stellar the past month+).

Paul Sporer: I would be inclined to keep both, but obviously if you can BETTER your team with selling, it has to be entertained. Don’t sell just to sell, though.

Minty: 10 team OBP dynasty. Baez seems like a great cheap keep as an infield backup. Do you think that he’ll breakout or just keep doing more of the same?

Paul Sporer: I think there is definitely the potential to breakthrough. He’s still just 24 next year, really improved his strikeout rate, shines on defense, and could be a legit 20-20 guy in the near future

Bart: Not to sound too pessimistic, I have a strange feeling that a pitcher is going to accidently or intentionally hit Gary Sanchez because of his hot streak. Hopefully causing no injury. I saw it happen to Trevor Story and others who are hot. Some end up on the DL. Am I paranoid?

Paul Sporer: I mean, we’ve seen some dumbass reasons for hitting guys (looking at you, Cole Hamels — remember his Harper horseshit a few years back) so it’s not outlandish, but even if you have the concern, it’s not really actionable

Tomas: What would be a reasonable expectation for Jharyl Cotton next year? Useful in 12 teamers?

Paul Sporer: I could see him being 12-team useful, but he’ll enter the season as more of an AL-only, deep mixer kind of target. Deep arsenal, good park, some prospect pedigree, and impressive cup of coffee will likely land him on sleeper lists, too

Jimmy: Edwin Diaz is a top __ RP next year?

Paul Sporer: 5

Lars: Which one would you NOT keep in a basic, no-salary keeper league: Sano, Dahl, Darvish, Benintendi, Bregman?

Paul Sporer: Embrace the youth movement and punt Darvish. The chances of all four youngsters hitting peak projection is low, but I’d be willing to be 2 of the 4 are star-level players. Since it’s hard to accurately guess which two, hold all four. I see something like 2 stars, 1 starter, and 1 utter disappointment. Not a bad return on four keepers, IMO

Leites: Thoughts on Alex Meyer for 2017?

Paul Sporer: He’ll finally be put in the pen

Matt: Paul, I’m in the finals of my H2H, ESPN points league, and had a little bad luck in terms of SPs for this week. My top 2 only get one start, Scherzer and Arrieta, and I just lost Carrasco. I snagged the best available SPs today based off their matchups (Fiars vs LAA, Anderson vs Pitt). Do I trust Archer tomorrow against Boston (which firmly goes against my Boston fandom and scares the shit out of me) or should I drop him for Paxton vs Twins?

Paul Sporer: Damn, that’s tough, I know it’s risky, but he has allowed 3 or fewer in 10 of 12 second half starts (3.20 ERA, 91 Ks in 78.7 IP) including starts at COL, at BAL, and v BOS. Can you cut someone else for Pax? I’m inclined to keep Archer even w/the risk

MarinerDan: Is Carlos Correa a first rounder next year?

Paul Sporer: he was in a mock I did: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/an-early-1st-round-for-2017/

Hannah Hochevar: Hi Paul. Given the cost of bullpen arms, do you think any setup men with closer experience (ala Grilli, Gregerson, Boxy) get dealt such that they end up closing again?

Paul Sporer: Ya I think it’s a safe bet that there is some RP shuffling, but I’d have hard time speculating on who, tbh

Gest: I tread lightly with taijuan walker but I am tempted to pick him up for min or oak. Would you advise? Has he turned a corner?

Paul Sporer: I would advise picking him up. I’m not sure he’s turned a corner, but he’s a solid pitcher with big talent facing a weak opponent

MarinerDan: Which non-injured player do you think slips the most in next year’s draft as against where he went this year? Bautista?

Paul Sporer: Perhaps Keuchel

Toki: Is Contreras a top 6-8 catcher next year?

Paul Sporer: I can get behind that. Without fully analyzing the position, I feel comfortable saying he’s no worse than top 10

Travis: I’m in a 12 team h2h 5×5 + OPS, keeper, $260 budget. Virtually no elite bats available in the auction next March, is Encarnacion a viable keeper at $43?

Paul Sporer: Probably need to see where he winds up, but if bats are super scarce then I can see that being perfectly reasonable once accounting for inflation

MarinerDan: Is Raisel Iglesias going to start next year or will he be the Reds closer?

Paul Sporer: I think he’s still considered a starter going forward

Cat: Trade my Thor for his Donaldson? Thor is young and amazing but I’m scared his arm is going to fall off. On a similar note, do you suggest trading pitchers for slightly lower-valued hitters to mitigate pitcher risk?

Paul Sporer: I do suggest that. I love Thor, but keeping pitchers is always nerve-wracking. Donaldson’s counting numbers could diminish if EE & Bautista go elsewhere, but he’s still a total stud

Jomaha: Hey Paul, thanks for helping me get to the championship this year! Volquez @ DET or Gsellman vs PHI to end the season?

Paul Sporer: You’re welcome! Gimme deGrom Jr. I hope you win

Toki: Is Alex Reyes a legitimate 1-2 starter next season?

Paul Sporer: No

Paul Sporer: We gotta stay measured on these kinds of guys. A 1-2 starter is a REALLY high bar. He has 35 MLB IP, mostly in relief and he’s walked 4.6 per nine

MarinerDan: Danny Duffy – a top 25 SP next year?

Paul Sporer: Si! Posting my early top 24 SPs after this chat (which is why we can only go until about 3:30 CT)

Lenny: I’ve been stashing Giolito all year, which obviously hasn’t worked out that great. Is he worth holding onto in an 11 keeper league? I have a number of more stable players I could keep but always intrigued by upside.

Paul Sporer: It’s definitely a league-specific thing. I can understand wanting to gamble on him. I thought he’d be fantasy viable this year and I’m certainly not quitting on him yet. Hit me with a few of the other stable guys though just to be sure

Fantasy Ethicist: How do you feel about helping other people during the draft? I don’t mean doing so strategically for your benefit; one of my friends in our league was new to fantasy and I wanted to help him out a little (not necessarily telling him who to draft, just like answering “X or Y?” questions), but my leaguemates wouldn’t allow it. Any thoughts on this?

Paul Sporer: I kinda get why they’re annoyed, but at the same time they need to chill. I’m always the guy who will point out if someone takes an out-for-the-year injured guy or answer the kinds of questions you’re talking about. I don’t see an issue with it. It’s similar to trade vetoes in that everyone is looking out for #1 so if you answer that either/or question with a player the whiner wanted, THAT is why he’s whining, not bc of any ethics but just bc he wanted that player

Jon: Pick one player to keep for just next season: JD Martinez ($6), Gary Sanchez ($2), Jon Gray ($2), Danny Duffy ($2)

Paul Sporer: JD. Love what the three $2 guys have done this year and Sanchez is close, but JD is bona fide 30 HR hitter and a freak injury is the only reason he won’t reach that plateau this year.

MarinerDan: I was burned by taking Miguel Sano in late third round this year. How do you view him for 2017? Bounce-back candidate or “he is who we thought he was”?

Paul Sporer: I’m gonna be a little dickish and say you should’ve listened to me on that one. It’s not just hindsight, I was always blown away by his gaudy draft price w/that K%. At any rate, he’s still got transcendent power and I’m actually going to be more apt to get him in ’17 with the price lowered… well, assuming it lowers enough. There will definitely be some leagues willing to keep his price high for the potential

Bart: Please rank these keepers for 2017, Harper, Cespedes, Carrasco, Sanchez, Villar, Freeman. Thanks.

Paul Sporer: Harper, Yo, Villar, Sanchez, Freeman, Carrasco — went Sanchez over Freeman for the positional scarcity, I would have no gripes if someone preferred the proven track record of Freef intsead

Paul Sporer: instead*

Bill: Look at Pineda’s monthly splits. Let someone else draft him, then trade for him or pick him up after the atrocious Aprils.

Paul Sporer: I don’t think it’s quite that. He has a 4.61 ERA since May 1st.

Paul Sporer: J UP, baby, let’s goooooo!!!

Paul Sporer:

Ceej: Thanks on the Moncada mid season guess. I was feeling that too.

Paul Sporer: No problem! It’s easy to get drunk on the Bryants and Seagers of the world and expect that of a Moncada, but I try to stay measured in my approach while also acknowledging that he has the talent to do something like that

Paul Sporer: It’s a delicate balance and you can’t play it safe with EVERY prospect, but I think they have enough talent to be able to take their time with him

Bassitt of Deplorables: Higher chance of being a top 5 1B next year – Myers or Abreu? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Ooh good question. I gotta go Myers because of the speed. Doesn’t even need another 26 if the offensive production around it improves, but it’s been nice to see Abreu surge toward the finish line

Toki: For next season: Mazara, Renfroe, Margot, Meadows, Frazier, JD Martinez, Adam Jones, Inciarte, Benintendi, Dahl, Schwarber

Paul Sporer: JD and Dahl are my faves there

Daniel: So, now are we considering Porcello a legit top 15/20 pitcher? He’s not going to strike out the side any time soon, but he’

Paul Sporer: he didn’t quite make the aforementioned top 24 coming out, but I’ve ALWAYS been a big Porcello believer.

Dumpster Fiers: Jordan Zimmerman return to top 40 form next year?

Paul Sporer: Ya I think he’ll be better (assuming health, obv). I think he’ll be one of those who doesn’t get enough leeway for being injured and instead this’ll be seen by many as his new level

Avi: Must keep 6 (1 RP, 1 SP, 1 Hitter required). 8×8 H2H (CG, 3B, Holds, GS, Losses, OBP are additional categories). I have currently in mind to keep Harper, Correa, Sale, MadBum and Jansen. My 6th could be: D. Gordon, Kang, Gurriel, Brach, Alex Reyes, Darvish, Matz. Which way would you lean?

Paul Sporer: I’ll go Kang

Duda Abides: trea turner tho

Paul Sporer: <3 <3 <3

Minty: Should the Dodgers throw Urias for 4 IP starts in the playoffs? I’d love bonus innings to build him up, but isn’t he also at least a healthy quality SP for them?

Paul Sporer: That’d be cool or at least multi-inning RP appearances.

Leites: Does post-injury Shae Simmons still have closer upside for 2017 or beyond?

Paul Sporer: Yeah he’s got some filthy stuff (95-96 heater, dirty breaker)

Paul Sporer:

MarinerDan: Has any modern MLB player gone out on top the way Big Papi will this year?

Paul Sporer: No, I think it’s the best final season ever, espec. at this age

Duda Abides: Would you keep Sano @ $13 in a 12 teamer that counts OBP and slug (no average)?

Paul Sporer: Ya, that definitely changes his value

John: Hey man, since you are both a hip hop fan and a baseball fan, can you finish this Fab lyric for me…”Yankee game, better seats than Rudy got…

Paul Sporer: I believe he says something about Matsui next………

FGM: JD will be the answer to any dynasty/keeper question he’s involved in with Sporer….you homer! Ha, I quite like JD too.

Paul Sporer: LOL, I definitely thought about that, but I feel confident that most would go JD there

Minty: J Gray or Alex Reyes in a dynasty? Coors vs walk issues

Paul Sporer: Ya that’s the conundrum, huh? I’m going Gray, but that’s personal preference pick

MarinerDan: Double by Sano — he’s back! 🙂

Paul Sporer: LOL

Toki: pick 6 please 🙂

Paul Sporer: JD, Dahl, Maz, Beni, Schwarbs, and AJones

MarinerDan: Rank these pitchers for 2017: Walker, Maeda, Keuchel, Gray, and Taillon.

Paul Sporer: Maeda, Gray, Walker, Taillon, Keuchel (Taillon/Keuchel v. close so I’m going w/NL guy in better park)

TeamGrover: 12 teams, 10 keepers, keep players forever. Rendon or Bregman? I don’t have room to keep both…

Paul Sporer: I’m going Rendon, but I don’t think it’s a slam dunk to the pt where a Bregman pick would be insane. Not hedging, just saying it’s close. Love Rendon, though

Gest: What’s going on with Miranda? Does he have legit redeeming qualities or is he flukey to you?

Paul Sporer: Eno has had some positive things to say. I haven’t seen him pitch, but the profile gives me a little Roenis Elias feel, which isn’t necessarily a negative thing

MarinerDan: Who are your AL and NL Cy Young winners?

Paul Sporer: Kluber and Max, but still pretty open on both sides, IMO

the butcher: in a 2 week H2H final w/ a hole at 1B. I’m rotating Joseph, Sean Rodriguez, Zimmerman and Alvarez based off daily matchups. Should I start considering plugging and playing Joseph or S-Rod?

Paul Sporer: I’d roll out Joseph full time rest of the way

Hannah Hochevar: How many members of this Twins bullpen could you pick out of a lineup?

Paul Sporer: 4

Minty: Dunno how you do all of the podcasts and the marathon chats, but thanks for killing it. Much appreciated.

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much!

Paul Sporer: We’ll end on that. Look for my 2017 Top 24 SPs out within an hour or so!

Paul Sporer: Take care, y’all.