Today’s Roto Riteup is on the fence about shorts. They’re not pants, but they also are.

On the agenda:
1. Say goodnight to Luis Severino
2. Various News and Notes
3. Streaming Pitcher Options

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Agenda

1. MLB Standings Chatter
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

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So the Phillies bullpen is becoming a strength after a rough start, as Hector Neris and Jeanmar Gomez were perfect in the 8th and 9th, each striking out one. Neris continues to impress by not allowing a run in 17 of his 20 appearances, posting a 1.64 ERA (3.32 FIP). The FIP is high probably because of the 3 home runs he has given up, but outside of that he has looked very strong and also earned his ninth hold of the year for those of you counting. Gomez has also been such a pleasant surprise, despite really only a slight uptick in both his K/9 and K%. The ERA is down from last year (3.01 to 2.61), but the FIP has gone up (3.25 to 3.63). Still has been an excellent closer so far, but the question is how long will this last?
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We’ve seen a paradigm shift in fantasy baseball the last couple of years as starting pitchers are being trusted more and more as early round, bankable assets. There has been a sharp change in offensive environment across the league as the “PED era” has given way to “Strikeout era” and fantasy managers don’t want to get caught without a premium ace or two, similar to how you needed at least a couple 30+ HR bats in the early-2000s to have any chance in the offensive categories.

This year is the most confident I’ve ever seen the market be in starting pitching as the top 20 were all drafted within the top 70 picks overall. Another six after that still made the top 100. Taking it a step further, 18 of those 20 were top 50 picks compared to just 10 pitchers elected as such in 2015. We are now a month and a half into the season and a whopping 60% of the top 20 starters are underwhelming against expectations. Some are lagging in a category and feel just a click off from dominating. Others are just flat out bad. Over the next couple of weeks, I’ll be investigating what’s going on with those in the top 20 who are underperforming. Today, let’s look at of the biggest laggards compared to expectations: Max Scherzer.

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The weird part of this is that the updates come with the back half of one week and the front half of the next. So these current stats recap the tail of a strong week four (5-0, 2.45 ERA, 9.4 K/9, 1.19 WHIP, 3.5 K/BB and six (!!!!!!) QS) and leads us into a murky week five (0-2, 5.68, 5.2, 1.53, 1.8 and just one QS). Here’s what we’re working with so far:

12-8 record
3.60 ERA
8.0 K/9
2.9 K/BB
1.29 WHIP
16 quality starts

I can’t really complain. It’s a lot better than last year. Anyway, one thing I feel good about this week — even in a lean week where I didn’t really like many of the options — is that all six starts will come at home for these guys. Here are this week’s recs (with team wRC+ in parentheses):

RHP Jerad Eickhoff – 19% ESPN – v. MIA (100), v. ATL (58)

Admittedly I don’t love Eickhoff here, but the Braves offense on the road (54 wRC+) is just too juicy of a matchup to ignore. Strangely, the Marlins are actually much better on the road — 113 wRC+ — though their home park might take some of the surprise off that. Eickhoff has had his moments this year; he’s fanned seven or more batters three times in seven starts. He’s got a couple games with double-digit groundballs. He’s kept the walks in check (36-8 K/BB ratio in 40.2 innings) and he’s only really had one huge blowup. I’ll take my chances here on a guy that is obviously talented. Read the rest of this entry »

A few weeks ago, I joined a league after an owner dropped out last minute. The only reason I joined was because I thought the previous owner did a nice job compiling this squad, or else I wouldn’t have touched it. It’s a 14-team head-to-head points league where you play three different owners at once. There are some funky rules in the league (which I’m always game for), but there is one that caught me by surprise regarding position eligibility.

To start the season, players have traditional positional eligibility (20 games at a position). So when I took over this team, I had Anthony Rendon at 2B and Edwin Encarnacion at 1B. No problem. Then on Sunday, the day after waivers run mind you, somebody informed me that both these players would not be eligible for those positions next week, which confused the hell out of me. After much research and a bunch of clarifying questions, I discovered this crazy rule I have never encountered. By May 1^st, positional players must play ten games at a position in order to continue to receive eligibility at that position. Since Rendon hasn’t played any second base, he lost second base eligibility. Encarnacion also lost 1B eligibility because he has played less than 10 games at first, but he still has a chance to regain that (he now has ten games at 1B).

In honor of this new format I encountered, and the craziness that is Friday the 13^th, I am going to look at other first baseman who may have lost 1B eligibility in leagues similar to this one, as well as looking at players who did not have 1B eligibility, but are on their way to gaining that eligibility. I intentionally left off catchers because you probably shouldn’t be starting more than the required amount, and if you are, go to your waive wire and find an actual first baseman.
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If you’ve been following along you’ve probably discovered that the game of Ottoneu is a mathlete’s dream.  It’s an advanced economic system built for fantasy baseball that only gets better over time.  And while the Roto options will feel very familiar, the “points” scoring options (FanGraph Points and SABR) have become popular to the point where they are almost synonymous with the game itself.

Ottoneu is especially designed for the FanGraphs audience, but even the most sabermetrically-inclined fantasy players will find their first season or two of Ottoneu “points” to be a (worthy) challenge.  Navigating a full auction draft, understanding the relationship between player scoring and player values (salaries), and trying to build a roster flexible enough to maximize games and innings over the course of a long season are just a few of the early lessons that need to be learned quickly.  But few things are more puzzling to new owners than interpreting early season league standings, so today we’ll review the Standings Dashboard, a custom tool built to dig deeper into your league’s standings so you can properly evaluate whether you’re a contender or pretender.

Ottoneu Standings Dashboard

Using a first year Ottoneu league (“Brinksmanship“) as our benchmark, here’s a glance at the league standings through May 12th, 2016:

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I love young players. This week’s piece will allow me to indulge my love of young players. The first highlighted player is highly owned, but his ownership rate at one of the major fantasy baseball providers is insanely low. He’s joined by a pair of players in the Triple-A International League who should all reach the majors in the coming months. If recent performance is an indicator, they’ll be getting a look sooner rather than later. Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 156 – Live With Brad Johnson

The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!

In this episode, Dylan Higgins and Brad Johnson do a live recording to discuss picking against Shelby Miller and Justin Verlander, Ryan Zimmerman’s diminishing reputation giving him improved DFS value, a comparison of Chris Carter and Jackie Bradley Jr., the red-hot Red Sox, some of many issues surrounding the Minnesota Twins, Brad being a Brandon Guyer guy, the viability of some very cheap pitcher options, Brad trying out fantasy golf, and The Daily Grind Invitational.

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Agenda

1. Obligatory Advertisement
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets

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