The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for April 20
Agenda
- Daily DFS
- SaberSim Observations
- The Daily Grind Invitational
- Tomorrow’s Targets – Karns, Danks, Park, Rollins
- Factor Grid
Agenda
The early season is the trickiest part of the year for fantasy players. How much do you react to any given start for a pitcher? Is Vincent Velasquez really awesome? Is Adam Wainwright all of a sudden trash? While we can’t know definitively on any of it this early, we can start looking for signs that will help us make our decisions going forward. Today, we’re going to look at two really intriguing arms off to solid starts and see how they’re attacking their biggest flaw: walks.
Moore entered 2016 with an 11% career walk rate, just too many walks to find consistent success. As is often the case when someone is struggling with walks, it is fastball command for Moore. He has never had lower than a 10% walk rate with the pitch. So when I see the 4% walk rate for Moore through three starts, it instantly jumps off the page for me. Once you see a stark difference in a skill like that, you want to investigate it further and not just accept it at face value.
The season is only a little over two weeks old, and all the rote small sample size caveats apply, but some hitter performances in the early going have been enough to move the needle when looking at rest of season projections. I’m specifically going to be looking only at hitters in this article, mostly because rest of season projections aren’t quite as quick to adapt to changes in talent for pitchers. I’m also going to be presenting this information through the lens of ottoneu Fangraphs points leagues, which utilize linear weights scoring.
This week we look at two hitters available in deep leagues whose uncharacteristically good contact thus far warrants a closer examination. Obviously, as should be stated with almost any analysis at this point in the season, small sample caveats apply. And now that we are disclaimed, let’s irresponsibly dig for upside!
Preston Tucker (2% Yahoo, 2.8% ESPN, 8% CBS) – Tucker burst onto the scene last year in Houston posting a .243/.297/.439 slash line. Wait, that’s not very good. Why did I say burst? Oh right, because Tucker actually posted a 120 wRC+ through July before tanking in just 83 plate appearances the rest of the way. Tucker’s decrease in playing time obviously coincided with the arrival of Carlos Gomez.
But even beyond the trade deadline’s roster crunch ramifications, Tucker just stopped making good contact. His soft% increased to an alarming 32% from August onwards. He also stopped taking walks, reaching base via the free pass just 3.6% of the time.
Episode 139 – Pulling This Train Back On Course
The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!
In this episode, Dylan Higgins and Matthew Dewoskin discuss Mat Latos’ inevitable regression, Logan Morrison’s ice-cold start, remembering when Tommy Milone was a useful streamer, a random Kevin Pillar fun fact, trying to make sense of Ian Kennedy, Robin Ventura’s interview skills, Dylan giving Matt a reverse Sophie’s Choice, and failing to really pay attention to other sports.
Podcast (field-of-streams): Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: RSS
Somehow, this became an all-Twins edition of the deep league waiver wire. It wasn’t intended that way, but it does support the idea that struggling teams produce more waiver wire gems as they move around the deck chairs and try to figure out what setup leads to better performance.
Live from a coffee shop at 6 a.m. because I just moved and don’t have the internet set up yet, it’s the Roto Riteup! Have you ever tried to exist for three days without the internet? I don’t recommend it. I’ve been hiding out at coffee shops, spending far too long around the Raptors’ facilities, and killing my data with hot-spots.
Sure, you could say, “Just use the internet less,” but in 2016, that’s akin to telling a pitcher to “just get Bryce Harper out,” or, “Just make good contact” off Stephen Strasburg. Some things are easier said than done.
• Kevin Jepsen entered the ninth inning in a tied game this afternoon but a Yadiel Rivera double (who advanced to third on an error) and a Scooter Gennett RBI single gave the Brewers the lead and the eventual loss for Jepsen, his third of the year. It’s only been a few games but Jepsen has been about as effective as he was last year (3.81 xFIP in 2016 and 4.04 in 2015) but his 4.05 ERA doesn’t look as shiny as the 2.33 ERA he had last year. This wasn’t a particularly bad outing for Jepsen so no change is coming but if he continues to have a few more outings like today – Trevor May is someone to keep an eye on.
• Jeremy Jeffress needed only seven pitches for another scoreless inning today keeping his ERA at 0.00 and saving his fifth game on the year. Jeffress kills worms quite well with a career 57.6% ground ball percentage and although his K/9 sits at a less than stellar 6.75, his swinging strike rate is 14.3%, up from last year (11.4%). It’s certainly a small sample but if Jeffress can generate more whiffs while keeping the ball on the ground he could have a sneaky solid season. I wouldn’t expect a league leading save total on the Brewers but he’s hitting on a lot of the bullet points you would want to see.
• Jumbo Diaz was demoted today with Robert Stephenson getting the call up to the big leagues. J.J. Hoover hasn’t been effective at all this year and gave up another two earned this evening, but the competition behind him hasn’t been stiff enough to replace him, yet. I’ve upgraded the grid below to include Caleb Cotham who came over from New York in the Aroldis Chapman trade and hasn’t allowed a run in eight appearances this year, including a perfect inning today. I’ve also upgraded Tony Cingrani, who started the ninth inning tonight getting the first out before handing it over to Hoover, as the next-in-line. This pecking order, including J.J. Hoover, remains red hot especially with Bryan Price saying that he will sleep on the decision about J.J. Hoover as closer. I would go for Cingrani then Cotham if you’re looking to grab a quick save as I think Hoover will be removed from his role, but it’s really close to a toss-up.
• Quick Hits: Cody Allen gave up one run but earned his fourth save of the year. After a day off due to a blister issue, Roberto Osuna was back in form for a four-out save. Wade Davis walked and struck out a batter for his sixth save. Alex Colome closed his second door of the season, throwing a perfect 10th with two strikeouts. Ryan Madson was called on in the 11th to secure the lead for the A’s and it certainly looks like he’s becoming the full on closer. Sean Doolittle threw a scoreless eighth in a tie game and I’ve upgraded the A’s to yellow on the grid. John Barbato allowed the first run of his season in his two innings of work but he still looks like a keeper in the Yankees pen. He won’t be able to leap frog Dellin Betances or Andrew Miller who both threw scoreless innings tonight (continuing their perfect seasons ERA-wise) but he’s another ratio and strikeout helper to rely on. The Yankees might have the best bullpen in the league even if Aroldis Chapman never throws a pitch.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
We are lost in the sea (puddle?) that is the small sample size portion of the season. We’re trying to find a mooring, some stat that we can really use to identify believable results. This is where I link you to the pieces about stabilization of stats, wipe my hands demonstratively and end the piece with a leaderboard.
Wait, I am going to do something like that, but with a few words of caution and analysis as well. For one, it seems to get lost that stabilization is merely the point at which the stat itself is more meaningful going forward than the league average. In other words, league average regression is still meaningful after this point, and the stat itself is still meaningful before that point. It’s all a continuum.
Instead, use the list as a way to judge the relative importance of stats. Easy enough. We’re past the point of stabilization for swing rates — not for reach rates or contact rates — and we’re not at the point where ground ball and fly ball rates stabilize. And yet, we can use swing rates, and ground ball and fly ball numbers, to judge players, because those stats are more meaningful than the others.
There’s also a second level here that shouldn’t be swept aside. Swinging less and hitting more fly balls is not — by itself — the greatest marker for improved performance. Some players should swing more and hit more grounders, of course. But here we’re going to look for guys that could benefit from better plate discipline and who could gain more power from more fly balls.
In this episode of OttoGraphs, Tom and Trey interview Niv Shah, the creator of Ottoneu.
We discuss a wide variety of topics, including, but not limited to:
If you haven’t yet, be sure to check out Episode 5 of OttoGraphs as well, in which we’ve re-released an older interview with Niv from about a year ago. Joe and Trey covered some of the same topics that we’ve discussed in this episode, and it’s really fascinating to see how much Ottoneu has changed over the course of just one year.
Feel free to comment with any questions or suggestions you may have about this episode or future topics. We can be reached individually on Twitter:
Lastly, special thanks to Treemen who provided our intro and outro music. If you like what you hear, please check out their other work at http://treemen.bandcamp.com/
Podcast (ottoneu-podcast): Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: RSS