Hector Santiago has historically been the type of pitcher I won’t roster in fantasy. The lefty has a track record of smashing his ERA estimators (3.51 ERA for his career compared to a 4.51 FIP, 4.67 xFIP and 4.26 SIERA) with underwhelming strikeout rates, mediocre stuff and below average control. No, I don’t blindly regress a pitcher like Santiago to his ERA estimators. It appears some skill or skills he possesses allows him to post an ERA that’s better than them. That said, I’m usually leery of the gap between the ERA and the ERA estimators closing, and with the bulk of the lefty’s fantasy relevance tied to posting a helpful ERA, any slippage would cripple his value. This isn’t the same Santiago anymore, though, and I now roster him in all three fantasy leagues I’m in this year. Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 141 – Live With Scott Strandberg 2: Electric Boogaloo

The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!

In this episode, Dylan Higgins and Brad Johnson are joined by Scott Strandberg in a live recording to discuss Jon Moscot sounding like a woodland creature, Scott’s concerns about streaming against Jon Gray, general stacking and DFS GPP strategies, the remarkable price differences between DFS sites, not being able to resist Nolan Arenado even when he seems like an obvious pick, the very slow starts for Luis Valbuena and Logan Morrison, choosing runners against Jon Lester, concerns about a number of aces, and the train next to Dylan’s house making another return.

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Agenda

1. Price Discrepancies
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

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Raise your hand if any of these statements are true.

1. You have a hard time remembering all the players on your various fantasy teams.
2. You remember the players, but you have a hard time remembering exactly which team the players are on.
3. You get alerts that one of your players is out of the lineup and you need a quick way to find all the teams that player is on to swap him out.
4. You have more than four fantasy teams (… but maybe not this many).
5. You like to look at more than the base stats provided to you about each player on your league hosting site (R, HR, RBI, W, and SV are nice but you want K%, OPS, FIP, etc.)
6. You would like an easier way to research your own players on various sites like Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball, and Baseball Savant (the official MLB version!).

I have a poor understanding of the “fantasy baseball demographics” of our readership, but hopefully the majority of Fangraphs readers can relate to at least one of the issues above. Many believe that duct tape fixes all problems. I believe they’re wrong and that spreadsheets are the superior panacea.

I’ve been working on a prototype spreadsheet that will help keep track of all the players on your fantasy teams, provide easy access to all of your league sites, free agent listings, and standings pages, help you easily determine what teams a specific player is on, and will also let you easily research players on Fangraphs, see pitch velocities and usage mixes at Brooks Baseball, and see exit velocity data at Baseball Savant. Read the rest of this entry »

When it comes to fantasy baseball, not all prospects are created equally. In keeper leagues and dynasty leagues it’s important to have strategies around your prospects; you don’t want to just randomly grab a Top 10 or 20 prospect and hope for the best.

Along with skill, knowing a player’s ETA is key. Is the player advanced enough to help in 2016… or is he headed for a 2019 debut? Toronto’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a talented dude but he’s not likely to visit the Great White North until 2020. Chicago (AL) drafted Carson Fulmer in 2015 with the eighth overall pick but he’s considered advanced enough to perhaps help the club in ’17. And then there’s Colorado’s Trevor Story, who is likely to turn the Jose Reyes soap opera and a strong spring into a ’16 starting gig.

As a result, your strategy around acquiring prospects should vary. If you’re grabbing a guy earmarked to help in 2017 or later, you should look at them like a stock — an investment that you hope to see increase in value before you cash out (either by adding to your active roster or by trading for an opportunity to win sooner). You also have to consider if you’re truly committed to a long-range prospect and willing to commit a roster spot to someone who may not help for three or four years — if at all. Prospects with a ’16 or ’17 should be viewed as players that can be valuable (albeit potentially inconsistent) contributors to the current makeup of your roster at a reasonable cost.

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After a breakout 2015 campaign (2014 wasn’t a legit breakout, as it required a 6.9% HR/FB rate), this was not the start Chris Archer owners were expecting. He has posted an ugly 7.32 ERA and a rather hilarious 2.08 WHIP. That’s not a typo — his WHIP is above 2.00! It has only been four starts, but since he has already allowed six runs in half of them, it’s logical that there would be some concern. So let’s try to figure out what, if anything, is wrong.

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Some days are great. Some days you just have it, everything is clicking, and the weight of the world is lifted from your shoulders. Other days, life kicks your butt, and this is all you can muster.

RECAP: #Reds draw four walks vs. Cubs. pic.twitter.com/PSY5I3DyBB

— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) April 22, 2016

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Back on my old beat! The ‘Report team needed a pinch hitter, and they gave me the keys to the chart so watch out. Bet I don’t even make a single change, but it is early in the season, and things change rapidly, so let’s see.

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• I added quite a few updates on players in the spreadsheet like Tyson Ross’s setback. It seemed like the MLB.com beat reporters were each required to write and injury related article over the past couple of days.

• Joe Kelly is on the DL with a shoulder impingement.

“That was all I got right there,” said Kelly. “It was as hard as I could throw the ball at that time. It didn’t feel that great, obviously. Hovering around that 89-90 [mph] range was what I had, and I tried to push through it and got the last pitch up to 94 luckily for the strikeout, obviously. It didn’t feel very good.”

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See the transcript below:

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