Let’s go deep down into the depths of your free agent pool. It’s where the risks are great and hidden treasures may emerge. Today’s theme is speculating on two guys that could remain worthless, but will cost you next to nothing to find out.
Believe. Even when the odds seem wildly stacked in your favor, believe. The struggle itself toward the heights is enough to fill a man’s heart.
Thanks to some comments we have updated a few down ballot spots on the grid. The closing chairs all remain the same but the Marlins bridge to A.J.Ramos (David Phelps and Kyle Barraclough) along with a few other situations have been changed. As always – continue to let us know where we have done you wrong.
Onto the games…
• Tony Cingrani entered the game against the Mets with one out in the seventh, suggesting there is a closer carousel in Cincinnati. Cingrani allowed a triple to Curtis Granderson and gave up the go ahead run after David Wright hit a two-out single, knocking in the Grandy Man. Caleb Cotham then entered in the bottom of the eighth and struck out two batters. It’s really anyone’s guess who will receive the next save chance but it looks like Caleb Cotham, Tony Cingrani, J.J. Hoover, Blake Wood and even Ross Ohlendorf could be in line. I would stay away unless you’re desperate for saves and if you do roster one of the Reds options, I would recommend stashing them on the bench as waiting for this situation to figure itself could hurt your ERA.
• In mop-up duty in the eighth Drew Storen came on and allowed four hits and three earned runs, raising his ERA to 9.39. Woof. Storen won’t continue to have a 22% HR/FB ratio and a 53.3% LOB% all year but he can’t keep this up if he wants to see important innings. Brett Cecil hasn’t been much better of late either with a 5.19/4.12/4.39 ERA/FIP/xFIP pitching line of his own. I think the Blue Jays will allow these two a chance to redeem themselves but if the free fall continues, look for Jesse Chavez (2.35 ERA and a 12/1 K/BB in 7.2 innings) to move into a setup role.
• A day after recording a one-out save, Alex Colome only needed to get two outs for his fifth save of the year. Erasmo Ramirez threw a perfect seventh and eighth, handing the ball off to Xavier Cedeno (L) to get out the tough lefty, Chris Davis before letting Colome finish the job. The Rays have allowed Cedeno to pitch crucial innings, calling him on to get tough lefties but he’s never been as effective against right-handed hitters (.332 wOBA against righties and.222 wOBA against lefties in 2015) so I would still put Erasmo Ramirez ahead of him for now. However, with Brad Boxberger cleared to resume baseball activities, it won’t be long (mid-May) until everyone is moved down the chain.
• Jepsen blew a one-run lead against the Indians on a Mike Napoli homer and now has three blown saves on the year. Glen Perkins is still on the shelf with a sore shoulder but hopes he can begin throwing in a week. Until Perkins is actually throwing on the side, it’s tough to give a timeline on his return but with a sore shoulder and his checkered injury past, I wouldn’t rely on a quick return. I still expect Jepsen to see the ninth but the seat is getting warmer. Alex Meyer isn’t near saves as he was just called up but if he does well in the pen in Minnesota he could make some late inning noise.
• On a positive note for Jepsen owners, Cody Allen gave up four baserunners and an earned run giving Jepsen a win for the second night in a row. Cody Allen had an ERA north of 11 last April and didn’t lose his job but he was also still striking batters out and largely getting unlucky. Allen’s swinging strike rate is still above average, but down from last year’s mark as is his average fastball velocity which isn’t a good sign. The sky isn’t falling, especially after a clean save last night but Allen doesn’t have the same wiggle room as he did before or last year.
• Jeanmar Gomez gave up a two-out hit but finished the scoreless inning for his fifth save on the year. Hector Neris pitched a clean eighth with two strikeouts and he might be the new setup man in Philly. On the year Neris has a 0.75/2.08/1.89 pitching line with an impressive 20 strikeouts against four walks in his 11 innings pitched. Whether or not Neris will keep up a 22.8% swinging strike rate, he still seems like a solid resource for strikeouts and the occasional hold for the Phillies.
• Quick Hits: The Mets won their fifth game in a row and for the third straight day, Jeurys Familia recorded the save. Expect Familia to have the night off if a save chance arises tomorrow and look for Addison Reed or Hansel Robles to get the opportunity in his place. Hector Rondon (4) recorded a save as well.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
Going into the season, we had two young fireballers with straight fastballs and meh results in their rear view mirror. Kevin Gausman and Nate Eovaldi both have good walk rate totals but bouts with homeritis and bad balls in play results that hint at bad command, or perhaps hanging secondary pitches. They’ve had incomplete arsenals, but they’ve recently added a pitch that threatens to make them whole. They’re in the same division, in ballparks that are better for hitters! They even had good starts last night! So… which one you got?
Here’s today’s transcript:
| 1:44 |
: My rotation this season is was supposed to be headlined by Greinke &Waino. I’m currently pooping my pants. Should I not be doing that yet?
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| 1:45 |
: I do think they’ll recover, but the damage is already done. You’ll need to get lucky streaming high end relievers to make up for it
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| 1:45 |
: Schoop or Wong, which 2B can dig out of his early season struggles?
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| 1:46 |
: I’ll guess Wong. There’s more to his skill set than swinging very hard.
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| 1:46 |
: Is this Porcello fool’s gold? I’m debating dropping some OF depth to grab him to bolster my staff. Yahoo H2H categories.
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| 1:46 |
: Porcello made some pitch usage adjustments late last year. No reason he can’t sustain those and remain useful. He won’t be a stud or anything, but he could win a bunch of games with decent rates
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Agenda
Episode 143 – Break Up The White Sox
The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!
In this episode, Dylan Higgins and Matthew Dewoskin discuss the weird end to the White Sox game on Monday, the dominance of the Chicago teams so far, Tyler Collins flippin’ the bird, Rick Porcello and Kevin Gausman looking good, remembering John Rodriguez and other ‘Rods, trying to believe in Edinson Volquez, trying harder to believe in Yonder Alonso, and a very controversial discussion on Rich Hill. Again.
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The biggest challenge writing for deep league managers is trying to cover the broad continuum of league depths in a limited space each week. In response to last week’s column, one commenter lamented that both of the players recommended had been rostered in his 20-team league since the start of the season. So for you masochists out there languishing in the bowels of waiver wire obscurity, I present you with this special Über Deep League Waiver Wire edition.
In this episode of OttoGraphs, Tom, Trey, and Justin discuss the Standings Dashboard, a tool that helps you analyze your team’s performance and compare it to the league. Later, we talk about how to handle a hot or cold start from your team, and our strategies for buying and selling in April.
Here’s a link to the standings dashboard. Save the file to your own google drive, then open it up, enter your league number and check out how your team stacks up against your competitors! Right now the standings dashboard only works for Fangraphs Points leagues, the most common format – we’ll be sure to let everyone know when we have an upgraded version that works for SABR points as well.
Editor’s note: We’ve gotten some good feedback about the audio quality, and I hope it’s been getting noticeably better the past couple episodes as we improve our on-air and editing skills. Thanks for bearing with us as we work to get better (and sorry in advance for a little audio hiccup in this episode)! Feel free to continue letting us know how we’re doing, and to comment with any other questions or suggestions you may have about this episode or future topics.
We can be reached individually on Twitter:
Lastly, special thanks to Treemen who provided our intro and outro music. If you like what you hear, please check out their other work at http://treemen.bandcamp.com/
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Yesterday, I shared a list of the 11 hitters who have enjoyed the most sizable improvement in strikeout rate versus last season. If sustained, there’s a good chance that each of the hitters produce a sweet profit for their owners. On the other side of the coin are the hitters whose strikeout rates have increased the most. This is the danger zone. Let’s dive in.