The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for April 26

Agenda

1. Pitcher Wins
2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
3. Daily DFS
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets
6. Factor Grid

1. Pitcher Wins

Let’s talk about pitcher wins and how they affect DFS decisions. On FanDuel, wins are extremely valuable – they’re 12 points apiece. The top pitcher on a given day usually scores about 60 points. The win accounts for one-fifth of the pitcher’s total value. Chasing easy victories is a smart and important part of playing on FanDuel.

On DraftKings, wins are worth four points. Top pitchers usually score about 25 points. Wins typically account for a little less than one-sixth of a pitcher’s value. That may not sound like a big difference. Let’s frame it another way. On FanDuel, a win is the same as a home run (less the corresponding run and RBI). On DraftKings, a double is worth five points. Yes, a hitter double is worth more than a win.

DraftKings also deducts points when a pitcher allows a hit, walk, or earned run. Further, points are rewarded for complete games (2.5 pts), shut outs (2.5 pts), and no-hitters (5 pts). It makes a lot more sense to select pitchers without regard to the win. Instead, you’re maximizing innings pitched and minimizing base runners.

Since you’re aiming for a high quality pitcher, you should still stand a good chance to snag the win anyway. You’ll just be less wary of matchups between aces. On FanDuel, Kershaw-Bumgarner games are hard to use because you want to be relatively sure of the win when you pay $12,000+ for a pitcher.

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

Several people let me know they missed the cut for yesterday’s DFS contest. Continue to inform me when that happens. I’m still trying to figure out the right league sizes for different days and time slots. Tonight, we have another evening contest – this time with all 15 games. We’re doing a $2, 40 player shindig on DraftKings. As always, ping me in the comments or on Twitter if you need a referral link. We both get a free $20 ticket.

Yesterday’s winner was the creatively named mm12345. Congrats on Chris Archer and Michael Conforto-ing your way to victory! The TDG Leaderboard is updated. Shockingly, we’ve yet to have a double winner on DK.

3. Daily DFS 

Yesterday’s Grind

Well…it sure looks like a day for pitchers. Pay out the nose for Clayton Kershaw, Chris Sale, Max Scherzer, Dallas Keuchel, David Price, or Johnny Cueto. I’d avoid Gerrit Cole at Colorado. Maybe you’re not me and want to gamble on an easy win. Carlos Martinez also has borderline ace pricing at a haven for offense.

Digging beyond the aces, you’ll find inconsistent Edinson Volquez opposite the Los Angeles Trouts. Most recently, the West Fish received a positive contribution from Albert Pujols (in the form of two home runs yesterday; after my bed time). The non-Trout/Pujols faction of the lineup is unintimidating.

If Rich Hill follows the same rules as the San Francisco Giants, he’ll flop tonight. It’s an odd outing. While a matchup against the Tigers is far from ideal, they also take their fair share of strikeouts. Hill once again offers near-ace upside with a terrifying floor. I flew that mission last week. I think I’ll take the ace layup today.

Bartolo Colon (Cincinnati) and Kyle Hendricks (Milwaukee) have solid matchups with a very good chance to earn a victory. Even though the win stat is so much more important on FanDuel, I see both of these guys as better fits on DraftKings. Bartolo the Great is a bargain at $6,400.

Beware! The Rangers game is a postponement risk tonight. Storms be a-lurkin’

Stack Targets: Jorge de la Rosa, Mike Pelfrey, Matt Wisler, Cody Anderson, Tom Koehler, A.J. Griffin, Shelby Miller, Jered Weaver, R.A. Dickey, James Shields

4. SaberSim Observations

The first eight pitchers listed by SaberSim include seven aces (mentioned above) and Jake Odorizzi. Personally, I prefer to avoid pitchers against the Orioles. Nate Karns has a shockingly high rating at 10th best for the day. I don’t buy it. SaberSim doesn’t think much of Bartolo the Great. Both Colon and his nemesis of the day, Brandon Finnegan, have a mid-tier projection. Although I like Volquez today, SaberSim hates him.

Go stack hitters at Coors Field, ya big ol’ galoompus.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets – Wright, Cosart, Raburn, Pillar

Pitchers to Start: No matter the quality of the matchup, you can never fully trust a knuckleballer. Steven Wright draws a terrible Braves offense tomorrow, but that doesn’t automatically mean they’re terrible against the knuckler. Wright stands a very good chance to earn a win. The rest of the stat line is anyone’s guess.

Also consider: Josh Tomlin, Nick Tropeano

Pitchers to Exploit: Jarred Cosart may be over his vertigo, but that leaves him with 98 other problems. His velocity is down 1.5 mph this season. He’s producing a terrible whiff rate, still has lousy command, and continues to lack an out-pitch. With his grounder heavy tendencies, he could make a decent setup guy. That’s the upshot for Cosart.

The Marlins are already drowning in the NL East – even the Phillies are outplaying them. Cosart is a big part of the problem. Oh, and he’ll face a tough Dodgers lineup tomorrow.

Also consider: Bud Norris, Jon Moscot, CC Sabathia, Martin Perez, Taylor Jungmann, Kyle Gibson, Jon Niese, Jon Gray, Chris Young, Collin McHugh

Hitters (power): Ryan Raburn would like your attention if you please. The platoon man is hitting .333/.367/.667 through 30 plate appearances with three home runs. He also has a painful 30 percent strikeout rate. Raburn will face lefty Jon Niese at Coors tomorrow. The spacious park and a sky high hard hit rate explain why he has a .375 BABIP.

Also consider: Martin Prado, Chase Utley, Seth Smith, C.J. Cron, Jake Lamb, Mark Reynolds, David Freese, Joe Mauer, Eddie Rosario, Aaron Hicks (?), Michael Taylor

Hitters (speed): Kevin Pillar is actually 55 percent owned – too high for inclusion here. He’s trending down quickly, and I’ve already written plenty about the alternative speed threats. Pillar is a hyper-aggressive hitter. If you aren’t in an OBP league, you can count on regression to a good batting average with some power and speed mixed in. He’s a good buy low candidate too.

Also consider: Nori Aoki, Jarrod Dyson, Coco Crisp, Angel Pagan

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Link.

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