When it comes to fantasy baseball, not all prospects are created equally. In keeper leagues and dynasty leagues it’s important to have strategies around your prospects; you don’t want to just randomly grab a Top 10 or 20 prospect and hope for the best.
Along with skill, knowing a player’s ETA is key. Is the player advanced enough to help in 2016… or is he headed for a 2019 debut? Toronto’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a talented dude but he’s not likely to visit the Great White North until 2020. Chicago (AL) drafted Carson Fulmer in 2015 with the eighth overall pick but he’s considered advanced enough to perhaps help the club in ’17. And then there’s Colorado’s Trevor Story, who is likely to turn the Jose Reyes soap opera and a strong spring into a ’16 starting gig.
As a result, your strategy around acquiring prospects should vary. If you’re grabbing a guy earmarked to help in 2017 or later, you should look at them like a stock — an investment that you hope to see increase in value before you cash out (either by adding to your active roster or by trading for an opportunity to win sooner). You also have to consider if you’re truly committed to a long-range prospect and willing to commit a roster spot to someone who may not help for three or four years — if at all. Prospects with a ’16 or ’17 should be viewed as players that can be valuable (albeit potentially inconsistent) contributors to the current makeup of your roster at a reasonable cost.
Over the course of the next few weeks we’ll have a look at the expect time frames for key prospects in each organization. So far we’ve looked at:
Dodgers/Padres
Giants/Rockies
Diamondbacks/Angels
Rangers/Athletics
Seattle Mariners
2016 Sleeper: D.J. Peterson, 3B/1B: Peterson had a nightmare 2015 season at the double-A level. The former first rounder stopped hitting for average and his power dried up. He’s back at the same level for ’16 and will look to show the pop that allowed him to slug 31 dingers in 2014. Peterson also struggled at third base, which could cause him to shift to first base — although his strong arm would be wasted there. If he can get off to a quick start in ’16, he could offer the Mariners a power jolt in the second half of the year — although it could take an injury to a veteran player to give him that opportunity.
2017 Stud: Edwin Diaz, RHP: Originally considered more of a command/control kind of guy due to his slight frame, Diaz has added velocity as a pro and can now hit the mid-90s with his heat. Add in a plus slider and you have the makings of a potential stud starter if the changeup comes around. He made 20 starts at double-A in 2015 but returned there to begin the ’16 season. If his first start of the season is any indication of the year to come (9 Ks, 2 hits in 6.0 IP), his return trip to the Southern League will be a short one.
Long-term Investment: Luiz Gohara, LHP: Still just 19, Gohara seems to have been around forever. He’s actually entering his fourth pro season already but has yet to open the year in a full-season league and was once again held back in extended spring training in 2016. Gohara throws from the left side but he possesses outstanding stuff with a mid-90s fastball and power breaking ball. He’s still very raw but he has the skill to develop into an impact starter or reliever if the Mariners can find a way to tap into the potential.
Houston Astros
2016 Sleeper: Joe Musgrove, RHP: Musgrove battled through injuries during the early stages of his pro career but he’s finally been healthy for a good stretch of time. He made up for lost time last year when he played at three levels. The club assigned him to double-A to begin the 2016 season but he could be one of the first two or three pitchers promoted to the Majors this year. He has a heavy mid-90s fastball that induces a lot of ground balls. Musgrove isn’t flashy but he could be a solid innings-eating starter for the Astros.
2017 Stud: Alex Bregman, SS: Taken at the top of the 2015 draft like Daz Cameron (below) Bregman is on a much quicker development track. The college product spent his debut season in ’15 split between two A-ball leagues. He showed enough in spring training this year to earn an opening-day assignment to double-A. A shortstop, Bregman will likely shift to third base thanks to the presence of stud shortstop Carlos Correa, himself a recent first rounder. Don’t be shocked if this young infielder appears in The Show at some point this season.
Long-term Investment: Daz Cameron, OF: The son of former Mariners’ outfielder Mike Cameron, Daz possesses a better hit tool and a similar potential for plus defence. All his other tools grade out as at least average and he should have 10-15 home run power, if not a little more. He has the speed to nab 20-30 bases in a full season, which would make him a pretty tantalizing fantasy outfielder. He’ll open the 2016 in full-season ball (low-A) and is just 19 years old.
