Am I the Only One That Feels This Way?

Do you suffer from early season regret? Or is it just me?

I’m a value-based drafter. I don’t go into the draft with a plan. I have my values and I sit back, watch the draft unfold, and let the opportunities come to me. I’m also an accountant. I love Excel.

In other words, I’m boring.

The old guys. The boring guys. The “cool” players from two years ago or maybe even ten years ago… That’s the type of player that usually ends up on my teams. Certainly not the fun new toys. I’m told it’s the smart way to play the game. I’m stock-piling value. Increasing my chances of winning.

And I hate it.

I’m also pushing 35. So maybe I’m experiencing early onset mid-life crisis. But I’m second guessing my way of doing business. You might have seen a little bit of the second guessing here. And then I went through a 10 team AL-only draft and it really sent me into a tail spin. Take a look at what’s causing me to question my purpose in life:

Look at all those shiny toys to play with on the other guy’s team! Well, maybe one day he’ll get to play with them. But still! Look at all of that mouth-watering and potentially game-changing production on the sexy team.

And outside of Pineda (who is a little bit exotic?), look at that boring group of minivan driving Dads with side parts on my team.

I’m comforted by the excess value my calculations show. But owning that other team looks like so much more fun.

Is There a Weakness in My Game?

The real reason for this anxiety is that I have been flat out crushed in the standings by the sexy team the last two seasons. Players like Danny Salazar, Kole Calhoun, Josh Donaldson, George Springer, Corey Kluber, Garrett Richards, and Mookie Betts have slaughtered my Prince Fielder, Robinson Cano, Evan Longoria, Brett Gardner, Billy Butler, and Howie Kendrick.

Hindsight makes it easy to look at the boring names of the last few years and laugh. And to still get excited about the popular or flashy picks. But at the time, I was able to secure the boring guys at discounts and those trendy picks were going at above market prices. The problem is that to some extent the overpays paid off.

I can’t help but feel that there are weaknesses in the steady and boring approach. Or maybe it’s not a weakness. Maybe I’m adhering to it too strictly and leaving myself open to the knockout punch? Maybe I’m drafting too much for the projected value and not considering upside enough?

Or maybe I’m overreacting. Maybe I’ve just had bad luck the last two seasons on my big investments and I shouldn’t change my process. I keep hearing from the DFS community that I shouldn’t necessarily change my process due to bad outcomes. But it sure gets tough.

My Second Issue

Tell me if this story sounds familiar. I do the diligent thing. Draft solid players that are definitely ownable (above replacement level) and would be hard to drop… While some others walk away from the draft with names that are well below replacement level and should not have been drafted.

This is a clear advantage for me, right? Then why am I so envious of those that have obvious players to drop in the early weeks of the season?

A few of my leagues drafted weeks ago. Since then, I’ve felt handcuffed with guys I’m hesitant to drop and had to watch names like Trevor Story, Juan Nicasio, Socrates Brito, Jeremy Jeffress, Shane Greene, Keon Broxton, and Tyler Goeddel get picked up. This week I’ve seen Luke Gregerson (argh, I should have seen that coming!), Tony Zych, Jake Lamb, and Sam Dyson get snagged. Are many of them likely to stick and be long-term contributors this season? Probably not. But a few of those players are “going to pop”. Big. And I won’t have them.

Should I?

Stop Whining and Do Something About It

This turns out to be great advice to my seven year old and a mantra I can use to improve at fantasy sports.

Before I come up with a plan of action, let’s reflect on why this is a problem and what could be going wrong. I can think of three things that could be happening here.

The first is that I’m not being aggressive enough on upside. How much “upside” does one need to win a league? I need to investigate this further. These players getting snagged early in the season are all upside. They’re essentially free and they appear to have been bestowed with significant amounts of playing time. The only cost they have is the opportunity cost of having to drop a player. Which brings me to my next point.

The second possibility is that I’m overvaluing my own players. I’m sure this is part of it. I want to be right about the players I drafted. This is probably a cognitive bias that I’m susceptible to (maybe we all are?). And it’s easy to dismiss these hot pickups as the flavor of the week that won’t pan out. I have a sense that I overvalue my own players when working through trades with others. So it only makes sense that I’d do that when considering adds and drops. I need to work on a way to be more objective about things and remove this bias.

Or third, maybe I’m not quick enough or accurate enough in adjusting my projections and values of these players. Related to this, I have a hard time distinguishing between the immediate benefit of adding a guy like a Socrates Brito and a longer term speculative play like a Tony Zych or Sam Dyson.

Counterpoint!

Is there really a problem here? Why am I so convinced that my process is flawed? Because I had two bad seasons? Maybe things are working fine and it’s been bad luck. Could my process be so flawed that spending $40 to get $60 of value is an inferior strategy to spending $60 to get $40 of value?

That seems pretty stupid. Maybe I need to tweak things a little bit. BUT MY PROCESS CAN’T BE THAT FLAWED.

When I read this great article by Renee Miller (see tweet below, it’s the “Don’t derail your draft” article), I felt quite a bit better. It seems like my current strategy is insulated from the effects of group think and the availability heuristic (read that article if you don’t know what these are!), and maybe I need to stick to my guns.

Two #FantasyBaseball strategy articles @ESPNFantasy
Don’t derail your draft https://t.co/GIiq2l5uqE
&
Cognitive Biashttps://t.co/HddFyE6bU3

— Renee Miller (@reneemiller01) March 26, 2016

I’ve Calmed Down. Now I’ll Act.

Alright. I’m no longer going to jump off the bridge. I don’t need to go full on sexy. But I do feel like a tweak is needed.

Now that you’ve made it this far, I’ll admit that I have lied to you a little bit.

I’ve been presenting these doubts and feelings to you as if they’re new. But I also experienced these doubts and feelings the last few years. These aren’t new. And I adjusted slightly during this draft season. Here’s what I did:

1. I Splurged on Top Level Players – I even admit to overpaying. A little. Not a lot. I have investments in Mike Trout, Clayton Kershaw, and Paul Goldschmidt. It can be argued that overpaying is a poor idea, but I wasn’t stupid about it. I’m comfortable with it because of the stability, reliability, and proven track records of these players. I think that’s worth something. And we don’t attempt to quantify it. Shouldn’t stats from a player that’s done it repeatedly be worth slightly more than the same stat projection for the player that’s done it once?

   Even if you answer no to that question, the other reason I’m comfortable with it is the flexibility it opens up in my roster. If I think I have an edge over my competition by being more in-tune with league news and trends, then I need to open up roster space so I can exploit that edge during the season. Squeezing more of my budget into the top tier players allows me extra room at the bottom of my roster to speculate. I shouldn’t have to sit there this year with my hands tied. Maybe I’m wrong, but I think I can snag a gem out of the early season turmoil that will more that make up for the slight overpay.

2. I Pursued Selectively Chosen Under-Publicized “Toys” – One reason going after the “popular” pick up is a bad idea is the competition inherent in securing that player. Demand drives up prices. So you’re probably going to have to overpay. The trick is to search for the unheralded toys. While I don’t have any shares of Socrates Brito, A.J. Reed, or Lucas Giolito, I was able to secure shares of guys like Hunter Strickland, Joe Ross, Vincent Velasquez, and even Byung-Ho Park (who seems to be under the radar in my circles?). I consider these types to be a bit trendy, but not all out.
3. I Drafted Injured Players (where I had DL spots to accommodate) – No really an advanced strategy here. But it fits with my desire to open up roster space for early season speculation. This is a double-edged sword (too many injured players can clog up a roster), but the benefit here is even more flexibility to pursue some of the early season wonders. The trick is differentiating Chris Shelton, Emilio Bonifacio (06010!), and Willie Bloomquist from those with legitimate staying power.

   I tried to be reasonable here, too. I stayed away from mid-season Tommy John returns and went with the seemingly safer Michael Brantley, Anthony Desclafani, and Josh Hamilton types.

We’ll see how this plays out. But hopefully I was able to identify strengths and weaknesses of mine and have compensated accordingly.

Thanks for the therapy session and listening to me talk to myself.