We’ve started our annual Depth Chart Discussions, re-branded as Playing Time Battles for 2016. You can catch up on every team we’ve covered in the Playing Time Battles Summary post or following along using the Depth Chart Discussions tag.

I know what you’re thinking about the Miami Marlins rotation, you’re all “Jose Fernandez and IDGAF about the rest!”, but there’s a chance for some sneaky upside behind the undisputed ace and top-10 (at least… he’s 6th among SPs in NFBC draft data) arm in Fernandez. The Marlins got just 64.7 innings from their ace last year so they were unsurprisingly below average as a unit. They finished 18th in ERA and FIP, 27th in K-BB%, and 17th in WHIP. A full season of Fernandez will go a long way toward improving those numbers, so the guys you so callously discarded will be instrumental to any success the Marlins have in 2016.

The battles such as they are in the Miami rotation are at the backend, but let’s talk about their #2 starter first. Wei-Yin Chen come over on a 5-year, $80 million dollar deal and while he was a nerve-wracking pitcher to have on your roster as part of the Baltimore Orioles, his outlook greatly improves in the NL and Miami, specifically. As an Oriole, he posted a 3.72 ERA in 706.7 innings with 31+ starts in three of the four seasons. Chen doesn’t miss a ton of bats and has home run tendencies, but he doesn’t walk guys which helps minimize the longball damage.

Camden Yards exacerbated the home run issue, but the AL Beast ensured that homers were an issue everywhere (1.3 at home, 1.1 on the road). His new home park alone is a massive upgrade on that front. Yeah, I know they moved the fences in and lowered them, but they aren’t turning it into a bandbox by any stretch of the imagination:

The big change will be to the right of the home run sculpture where the distance from home plate is being reduced from 418 to 407 feet.

Camden Yards has a three-year factor of 128 for lefties, 107 for righties on homers per StatCorner. Marlins Park is at 70/77, respectively, so even a big change (which I doubt is forthcoming) would still make it a much better environment for Chen. And that says nothing of the rest of the division which only has one HR-friendly park (Philly) compared to the AL East which only has one HR-suppressing park and that’s Fenway which severely curbs lefty homers, but is still hitter-friendly in runs.

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• Lance McCullers will start the season on the DL with a sore shoulder.

“There’s just not going to be enough time to build him up for the role in which we anticipate him doing,” manager A.J. Hinch said Wednesday morning. “I told him that this morning so he’d be assured he’s not trying to hit a deadline of Opening Day trying to impress anybody. We want him back healthy as soon as possible, but it’s not going to be Opening Day.”

McCullers has been sidelined since a March 6 throwing session. He reported soreness the following day, and when it didn’t subside quickly, an MRI was done. That MRI was clean, but McCullers still has some soreness and doesn’t know when he’ll resume throwing.

“We’re kind of taking it day by day,” McCullers said. “I’m feeling a lot better. It’s just up to the training staff and the team. They have my best interests in mind. We have the long-term goals in mind. I’m taking it day by day and going off what they say. It’s just getting all the soreness out.”

I am not surprised McCullers has an arm injury with four major injury factors (throws hard, throws a ton of breaking balls, unestablished starters, previous injury). I like his potential, but I may look to be selling once he comes back healthy.

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1. Tyler Duffey is the Twins best starter

I was a bit late to the party on Duffey as I had not heard much about him until reading a Keith Law chat last year in which a Twins fan asked why he has improved so much in the minors. The details Keith gave caused me to look deeper into Duffey and I came away with confidence that he can perform in the upper levels and in the majors. Last year he was great in double-A, triple-A, and in the majors and has a quality most Twin starters lack – strikeout potential. To say I am bullish on Duffey would be an understatement.
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When your leaguemates start paying too much for closers, there’s only one thing to do – queue up your closer sleepers. The following is quick analysis of my favorite closers-in-waiting. You can use these guys as elite sources for holds or handcuffs to unstable closers. We’ll do the NL today and the AL tomorrow.

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I’m the Jose Molina of Bold Predictions. Sure, I can’t hit my weight, but you can still read about me on FanGraphs.
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Last week, we kicked off updated rankings season. Several years ago, I began a series that has become an annual tradition – Pod’s Picks. When I manually project players for my Pod Projections, I rarely look at what the other systems are projecting. So I typically have little idea as to whether I’m bullish or bearish on a player, or my expectations are similar to everyone else’s. Outside of the projections, we all use different valuation systems. Even given the same projected line, two fantasy owners could potentially arrive at drastically different values for the same player. All this is a way of me saying that I never know who I like and who I dislike, compared to the market, until I see my rankings or dollar values directly compared to other sets.

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Hey there.

So, I kind of feel like this is my first day, or if not my first official day, the day you show up to get your course calendar and wander around campus aimlessly, hoping you don’t trip on a raised piece of sidewalk or get your headphone cord caught on a bike’s handlebars or anything. I’m not new here, but I was absent last season, and this is my first foray into the Roto Riteup. I’m excited to be joining Zach Sanders and Justin Mason, two people far better suited for it, in this role.

But mostly, I’ve gained a great sense of inflated importance, like a returning Y2J here to save you all from the shoehorned pop-culture references of my predecessor. And yes, these are big shoes I’ll aim to fill. Well, probably not. The outgoing David Wiers – on to big, big things – strikes me as a small-footed sort. What he lacks in foot size, he made up for in heart, humor, and intelligence, and while I can’t promise to match him on any of those measures, I can at least promise I have similarly easy to make fun of taste in music.

Nice fellow that he is, Wiers sent the following as a sort of transitional message to his faithful readership:

Legend says White House Press Secretaries pass down a flak jacket from one to the next. Within the fabled jacket is quips, advice and jokes from prior Press Secretaries. Unfortunately for the Roto Riteup, no such tradition exists, just a brutal trial-by-fire from the comment section that I never truly pass, but merely endured until the readers got used to me. Don’t worry, both Justin and Blake are more than capable, especially compared to myself and that grump Sanders.

He did not, however, tell me how to turn off getting emails for every single comment on an article. Anyway, please be gentle, and let’s get on with it.

On today’s agenda:
1. Love the Drake or Hate the Drake?
2. No suspension for Yasiel Puig
3. Bronson Arroyo tears labrum
4. Ruben Tejada released
5. Blue Jays’ fifth-starter race heating up

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3/16/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles

• Lance McCullers to DL
• Yasiel Puig no suspension
• MIL not naming a closer
• Juan Nicasio turning heads in PIT

Strategy Section: Good Guys Off Bad Years

• Yasiel Puig
• Carlos Gomez
• Troy Tulowitzki
• Ian Desmond
• Hanley Ramirez
• Anthony Rendon
• Jacoby Ellsbury
• Yan Gomes
• Victor Martinez

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I am a huge San Francisco Giants fan. However, if you have followed my work prior to joining Rotographs, you know I hate Gregor Blanco. I will explain further. Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 3 of OttoGraphs is here and we have a special guest- Chris Mitchell, creator of KATOH! We discuss the development of KATOH and the types of players the prospect model prefers, and Chris was also gracious enough to answer some questions we had about some specific prospects including Alex Verdugo, Clayton Blackburn, Blake Snell, and Joey Gallo.

Feel free to comment with any questions or suggestions you may have about this episode or future topics, and we can be reached individually on Twitter:

@OttoneuTrades

@JustinVibber

@TomHasOpinions

@Fazeorange

Lastly, special thanks to Treemen who provided our intro and outro music. If you like what you hear, please check out their other work at http://treemen.bandcamp.com/

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