Spring training is mercifully drawing closer to a conclusion, but it’s just about to pick up for yours truly. I arrive in Sarasota this weekend for a few days, so if you have any must-dos or, more importantly, must-eats in the area, please let me know.

It was a bit of a quiet Wednesday, so I’ll try to be more brief than I was in my RR debut last week. Let’s get this money.

On today’s agenda:
1. Troy Tulowitzki takes one on the hand
2. Drew Pomeranz impresses again
3. So does Tyler Naquin
4. Carl Crawford and Scott Van Slyke to platoon
5. Matt Bush and Justin Masterson

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Julio Teheran wasn’t great last year, especially from a fantasy standpoint. His 4.04 ERA and 1.31 WHIP were very different from the 3.03/1.12 he put together in 2013-14. He looked like an emerging star on the mound and was treated as such, going 20th among starting pitchers in 2015 drafts. He finished just 63rd on ESPN’s player rater and now has many running for the hills, but I’m not sure it’s all doom-and-gloom for the 25-year old righty.

First off, he stayed healthy and took his 33 turns in the rotation. Additionally, I think his struggles are overstated and primarily confined to a handful of hideous starts as opposed to sustained mediocrity (or worse). Bill James’ Game Score stat is hardly perfect, but it gives us a general idea of how a pitcher fared in a given start. You want at least a 50 score and anything below a 40 is awful.

He had as many 40 or worse Game Scores in 2015 as he did in 2013 and 2014 combined. Meanwhile, he was in line with his output of 50+ Game Scores. To put it another way, Teheran’s five starts of 6+ ER were tied for the third-most with a large group. It should come as no surprise then, that as he cut down the implosion outings, he looked more and more like himself. From July on, he posted a 3.23 ERA in 106 IP with just one of those 6+ ER outings on his ledger (an 8 ER demolition at the hands of the Yankees).

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3/23/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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• @sporer
• @enosarris
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Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles

• Andre Ethier out 10-14 weeks w/broken tibia (3:14)
• A.J. Pollock bum elbow, not expected to need DL (10:45)
• Tyler Naquin on track to start in CF (12:24)
• Kevin Gausman shoulder tendinitis (16:20)

Strategy Section

• Spring Standouts – Changing Your Outlook?
  • Keon Broxton (.914 OPS, 6 SB) (19:45)
  • Maikel Franco (7 HR) (25:25)
  • Danny Valencia (5 HR, 1.471 OPS) (32:27)
  • Jean Segura (.525 AVG, 5 XBH) (36:24)
  • Daniel Nava (.500 AVG, angling for starting role in LAA) (42:42)
• Eno’s updated ranks
  • Biggest movers
    • Matt Moore (49:42)
    • Vincent Velasquez (54:08)
    • Adam Conley (55:14)
    • Kyle Gibson (56:36)
    • Wade Miley (59:40)
  • Biggest fallers
    • Jeff Samardzija (1:05:40)
    • Rich Hill (1:08:42)
    • Yu Darvish (50:58)
    • Scott Kazmir (1:16:56)
    • Julio Teheran (1:18:14)

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Here we go! It is time for the first installment of America’s favorite game: AL Outfielder Tiers! This is my first attempt at doing this, so while I don’t expect any sympathy, please don’t crush my hopes and spirit if I forget a name. Remember, ranks and tiers tend to be subjective and we are in this together for the next six to seven months. Read the rest of this entry »

Successfully “rebuilding” your fantasy team into a contender is an epic challenge that requires vision, skill, patience, and a little bit of luck.  Since there is no perfect blueprint that ensures success (some people say never rebuild), it’s not surprising that owners take a lot of different routes to the same ultimate goal.

I recently polled a group of savvy, successful fantasy owners to get their advice for rebuilding in Ottoneu, asking five key questions that are related to the idea of effective rebuilding.  Regardless of whether you play Ottoneu, much of the (anonymous) feedback below should be relevant to a wide variety of fantasy baseball leagues and may be helpful if you find yourself in a rebuild this season.

What is the best advice you would offer an Ottoneu owner who is rebuilding their roster for the future?

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How’s that for a clickbait headline? (Not so good). Yesterday’s post on the interaction between keeper values and inflation generated a lot of great discussion. If you’re interested in that sort of thing, I recommend wading into the comments.

As one commenter noted, when calculating inflation, the industry standard is to use pre-inflation price times the sum of one plus the inflation rate. Or written another way: Post-inflation price = Pre-inflation price * (1 + inflation %). Said commenter thought I preferred: Post-inflation price = Pre-inflation price ^ (1 + inflation %).

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“Be bloody, bold, and resolute.” The approach didn’t work out for Macbeth, but these are nonetheless words to live by for the Birchwood Brothers. As we’ve often mentioned, we’re no better than Joe Fan at predicting the value of upper- and mid-tier players. We like Kole Calhoun, for example, but we have no idea whether he’s worth $15, $20, or somewhere in between. We leave the task of determining that to our Fangraphs colleagues.

We nonetheless find most of said colleagues’ Bold Predictions for the season a trifle, ah, timid. And, insofar as we are vessels of enlightenment, it is because we occasionally identify cheap players who might do something compelling. Remember, we’re the guys who last year urged upon you Jose Ramirez, T.J. House, Jordan Schafer, and Todd Cunningham. We operate at the intersection of the statistical and the anecdotal, and try to separate signal and noise. So, passing lightly over the recent news that–have we got this right?–Goose Gossage is retiring in order to home-school Adam LaRoche, we offer our Genuinely Bold Predictions for 2016. And, to quote a sign we once saw in the window of a discount shop, Everything One Dollars or Fewer. Although now that we think about it, some of the stuff in that shop, though undoubtedly cheap, cost more than a dollar. So let’s start with some guys who will probably cost you only that much, but whom we regard as worth $2 if someone says $1 before you get around to it.

Two Dollar Players

1. Keone Kela will lead the Rangers in saves. Contemplating Kela and Shawn Tolleson, the incumbent closer, we are reminded a bit of the situation before last season with Luke Gregerson and Chad Qualls. Qualls was ostensibly the incumbent, but a trifle long in the tooth and coming off an unusually successful season that was going to be hard to duplicate. Meanwhile, by any conceivable metric, Gregerson was a better pitcher. And so it is with Tolleson and Kela, with the additional fillip that Tolleson has a lot of trouble staying healthy. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s another day of picking and panning, and today we move onto the shortstop position. A discrepancy in ranking could really only be for one of two reasons (or both) — either a difference in projected performance or a difference in converting that projected performance into a ranking or dollar value. It’s not always easy to figure out what is causing the gap, but it is always interesting to discover who I am more bullish and bearish on than the gang.

For the shortstop position, my Picks will only include those in my top 20 and my Pans will only include those in the Consensus top 20.

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It’s been a long day without you, my friend. And I’ll tell you all about it when I own you again.

We’ve come along way from where we began with Carl Crawford as a fantasy baseball asset. Once one of the premiere outfielders in the game thanks to double-digit power, a .300 average, and 50-steal wheels, Crawford’s fallen on harder times since he landed with the Boston Red Sox in 2011. This is further proof that the Red Sox are evil and you should divest all shares of David Price.

Speed and defense don’t always age gracefully into a player’s 30s, and now 34, Crawford’s best days are decidedly behind him. But someone has to eat up the plate appearances that Andre Ethier, out 10-to-14 weeks with a fractured right tibia, is abandoning in the Los Angeles Dodgers’ outfield.

It’s crazy to think, but a guy who once had his fantasy value debated against that of Moises Alou or Gary Sheffield may now be relevant once again.
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Time to update the pitching ranks, as we’ve received more information and depth charts are starting to sort themselves out.

There are velocity changes to report. Jeff Samardzija hasn’t averaged 93 in a start yet, so that’s not good. Scott Kazmir is under 90 for a couple starts now, also not good — but it turns out those were cutters! So maybe he’s fine. Doug Fister is up! Around 90. Jacob deGrom was down to 92 in the last start, but was fine the one before, so that’s less worrisome. Garrett Richards is up! He was always up. So is Dylan Bundy though. He probably doesn’t have a starting role, though. Cody Anderson is up and now he looks like Matt Harvey. Adam Conley is up and I still like him, now a little more.

There are injuries of course! The Dodgers have most of them, but even the guys coming up behind are injured, and the group at the back isn’t very exciting to begin with. Matt Cain’s injury might push him back enough to give Chris Heston a shot to start the season at least. Or maybe not. Surely there will be a few more before spring ends.

And then there are depth chart movements that have already been made. Trevor May is a reliever. Erik Johnson was sent down. Brandon Maurer is a reliever, meaning Colin Rea and Drew Pomeranz and Brandon Morrow are fighting for two spots.

Throw them all in the blender and update your ranks. Eno’s Ranks, 2.0.

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