The Change — Updating Eno Sarris’ Ranks

by
March 22, 2016

Time to update the pitching ranks, as we’ve received more information and depth charts are starting to sort themselves out.

There are velocity changes to report. Jeff Samardzija hasn’t averaged 93 in a start yet, so that’s not good. Scott Kazmir is under 90 for a couple starts now, also not good — but it turns out those were cutters! So maybe he’s fine. Doug Fister is up! Around 90. Jacob deGrom was down to 92 in the last start, but was fine the one before, so that’s less worrisome. Garrett Richards is up! He was always up. So is Dylan Bundy though. He probably doesn’t have a starting role, though. Cody Anderson is up and now he looks like Matt Harvey. Adam Conley is up and I still like him, now a little more.

There are injuries of course! The Dodgers have most of them, but even the guys coming up behind are injured, and the group at the back isn’t very exciting to begin with. Matt Cain’s injury might push him back enough to give Chris Heston a shot to start the season at least. Or maybe not. Surely there will be a few more before spring ends.

And then there are depth chart movements that have already been made. Trevor May is a reliever. Erik Johnson was sent down. Brandon Maurer is a reliever, meaning Colin Rea and Drew Pomeranz and Brandon Morrow are fighting for two spots.

Throw them all in the blender and update your ranks. Eno’s Ranks, 2.0.

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Eno’s Pitching Ranks, 2.0
Eno Sarris Player ES 2/16 RG 3/8 Diff% Tier
1 Clayton Kershaw 1 1 100 1
2 Max Scherzer 2 2 100 1
3 Chris Sale 3 3 100 1
4 David Price 4 4 100 1
5 Jake Arrieta 5 5 100 1
6 Madison Bumgarner 7 6 100 1
7 Matt Harvey 9 8 114 1
8 Zack Greinke 8 12 150 1
9 Stephen Strasburg 10 11 122 1
10 Jacob deGrom 6 10 100 1
11 Jose Fernandez 11 9 82 1
12 Corey Kluber 12 7 58 1
13 Chris Archer 13 17 131 1
14 Carlos Carrasco 14 15 107 1
15 Gerrit Cole 15 14 93 1
16 Noah Syndergaard 16 19 119 1
17 Felix Hernandez 17 13 76 1
18 Danny Salazar 18 22 122 2
19 Johnny Cueto 19 20 105 2
20 Jon Lester 20 18 90 2
21 Dallas Keuchel 21 16 76 2
22 Sonny Gray 22 24 109 2
23 Adam Wainwright 25 29 126 2
24 Masahiro Tanaka 23 25 104 2
25 Cole Hamels 24 21 84 2
26 Michael Wacha 26 30 115 2
27 Tyson Ross 27 23 85 2
28 Michael Pineda 28 31 111 2
29 Francisco Liriano 29 26 90 2
30 Garrett Richards 30 27 90 2
31 Marcus Stroman 33 28 90 2
32 Yordano Ventura 32 39 122 2
33 Raisel Iglesias 34 47 142 2
34 Carlos Martinez 36 33 97 2
35 Jose Quintana 38 32 91 2
36 Drew Smyly 37 46 128 2
37 James Shields 39 40 108 3
38 Luis Severino 42 53 139 3
39 John Lackey 43 45 115 3
40 Patrick Corbin 46 51 128 3
41 Justin Verlander 48 42 102 3
42 Steven Matz 41 55 131 3
43 Taijuan Walker 44 36 84 3
44 Lance McCullers 40 48 109 3
45 Yu Darvish 35 50 111 3
46 Wei-Yin Chen 45 34 74 3
47 Hisashi Iwakuma 47 38 81 3
48 Jordan Zimmermann 53 43 90 3
49 Carlos Rodon 49 63 129 3
50 Jake Odorizzi 50 35 70 3
51 Collin McHugh 51 41 80 3
52 Mike Fiers 54 60 115 3
53 Jaime Garcia 56 67 126 3
54 Kevin Gausman 55 64 119 3
55 Shelby Miller 57 56 102 3
56 Anthony DeSclafani 58 71 127 3
57 Kenta Maeda 62 75 132 3
58 Jeff Samardzija 31 37 64 3
59 Scott Kazmir 52 44 75 4
60 Eduardo Rodriguez 59 76 127 4
61 Jason Hammel 60 58 95 4
62 Gio Gonzalez 61 49 79 4
63 Aaron Nola 63 61 97 4
64 Joe Ross 66 69 108 4
65 Anibal Sanchez 65 70 108 4
66 Andrew Cashner 67 57 86 4
67 Nathan Eovaldi 69 83 124 4
68 Kyle Hendricks 70 54 79 4
69 Jerad Eickhoff 78 97 141 4
70 Julio Teheran 64 52 74 4
71 Ian Kennedy 68 62 87 4
72 Clay Buchholz 72 59 82 4
73 Hyun-Jin Ryu 71 90 123 4
74 Matt Moore 98 95 128 4
75 Rick Porcello 74 73 97 4
76 Nate Karns 77 93 122 4
77 Andrew Heaney 75 72 94 4
78 Jesse Hahn 84 87 112 4
79 Kyle Gibson 97 78 99 4
80 Alex Wood 76 81 101 5
81 Kris Medlen 89 102 126 5
82 Jimmy Nelson 81 66 80 5
83 Vincent Velasquez 102 120 145 5
84 Rubby de la Rosa 90 99 118 5
85 Mike Leake 82 68 80 5
86 Jake Peavy 83 85 99 5
87 Hector Santiago 85 92 106 5
88 Trevor Bauer 86 89 101 5
89 Marco Estrada 88 74 83 5
90 Rich Hill 73 65 72 5
91 Adam Conley 110 #N/A #N/A 5
92 Derek Holland 88 84 91 5
93 Phil Hughes 91 77 83 5
94 Erasmo Ramirez 92 86 91 5
95 Wade Miley 111 82 86 5
96 Robbie Ray 95 96 100 5
97 CC Sabathia 94 112 115 5
98 Edinson Volquez 96 80 82 5
99 Ervin Santana 99 88 89 5
100 Chris Bassitt 103 132 132 5
101 Matt Shoemaker 116 126 125 5
102 Aaron Sanchez n/a #N/A #N/A
103 Henry Owens 104 147 101
104 Brandon Finnegan 105 130 101
105 John Lamb 79 131 125
106 Lucas Giolito 133 127 125
107 Jose Berrios 134 109 125
108 Nicholas Tropeano 101 #N/A #N/A
109 Chris Tillman 106 101 97
110 Homer Bailey 108 135 98
111 Chase Anderson 93 128 84
112 Chris Heston 107 117 96
113 Matt Cain 109 137 96
114 Tyler Duffey 112 140 98
115 Jonathan Gray 113 108 98
116 Brandon McCarthy 114 #N/A 98
117 Alex Cobb 115 122 98
118 Juan Nicasio n/a #N/A n/a
119 Daniel Norris 117 115 98
120 Zack Wheeler 118 123 98
121 Mat Latos 119 105 98
122 Drew Hutchison 100 119 82
123 Robbie Erlin 137 129 111
124 Cody Anderson 196 #N/A 158
125 Kendall Graveman 139 134 111
126 Jesse Chavez 122 111 97
127 Roenis Elias 123 #N/A 97
128 J.A. Happ 124 79 97
129 Bartolo Colon 126 110 98
130 Chad Bettis 127 133 98
131 Chris Young 151 116 115
132 Jorge de la Rosa 128 106 97
133 Drew Pomeranz 129 #N/A 97
134 Sean Manaea 154 #N/A 115
135 Yovani Gallardo 130 104 96
136 Doug Fister 177 #N/A 130
137 C.J. Wilson 131 98 96
138 Mike Foltynewicz 132 138 96
139 Zachary Davies 135 #N/A 97
140 Jeremy Hellickson 120 107 86
141 Martin Perez 136 118 96
142 Jarred Cosart 138 145 97
143 Josh Tomlin 140 103 98
144 Archie Bradley 141 #N/A 98
145 Tyler Lyons 142 #N/A 98
146 Charlie Morton 143 #N/A 98
147 Colin Rea 174 #N/A 118
148 Tom Koehler 144 136 97
149 Marco Gonzales 145 #N/A 97
150 Ubaldo Jimenez 146 94 97
151 Julio Urias 180 #N/A 119
152 Adam Warren 147 #N/A 97
153 Taylor Jungmann 148 139 97
154 Joe Kelly 149 143 97
155 Tyler Glasnow 150 144 97
156 Brett Anderson 80 125 51
157 Dan Straily 170 #N/A 108
158 Brandon Morrow n/a n/a n/a
159 Zach Lee n/a n/a n/a
160 Yusmeiro Petit 152 #N/A 95
161 Blake Snell 191 #N/A 119
162 Shane Greene 153 #N/A 94
163 Matt Boyd 155 #N/A 95
164 Frankie Montas 165 #N/A 101
165 Tanner Roark 156 #N/A 95
166 James Paxton 178 121 107
167 Michael Lorenzen 157 #N/A 94
168 Matthew Wisler 158 124 94
169 Jon Niese 159 100 94
170 Jered Weaver 160 141 94
171 Dylan Bundy 161 #N/A 94
172 R.A. Dickey 162 91 94
173 Jameson Taillon 163 #N/A 94
174 Miguel Gonzalez 164 149 94
175 Jeff Locke 166 113 95
176 Vidal Nuno 167 #N/A 95
177 Matt Garza 168 148 95
178 Tyler Skaggs 169 142 95
179 Mike Bolsinger n/a #N/A n/a
180 Ryan Weber 172 #N/A 96
181 David Phelps 173 #N/A 96
182 Danny Duffy 121 114 66
183 Trevor May 125 150 68
184 Williams Perez 175 #N/A 95
185 Henderson Alvarez 176 #N/A 95
186 Mark Buehrle 179 #N/A 96
187 Carlos Frias 198 #N/A 106
188 Kyle Lohse 181 #N/A 96
189 Jordan Lyles 182 #N/A 96
190 Wily Peralta 183 146 96
191 Scott Feldman 184 #N/A 96
192 Ryan Vogelsong 185 #N/A 96
193 Alfredo Simon 186 #N/A 96
194 Aaron Harang 187 #N/A 96
195 Justin Masterson 188 #N/A 96
196 Colby Lewis 189 #N/A 96
197 Tommy Milone 190 #N/A 96
198 Ivan Nova 192 #N/A 97
199 Erik Johnson 193 #N/A 97
200 Brett Oberholtzer 194 #N/A 97
201 Ricky Nolasco 195 #N/A 97
202 John Danks 197 #N/A 98
203 Manny Banuelos 199 #N/A 98
204 Tyler Matzek 200 #N/A 98




 

With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.

32 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Dave McDonaldMember since 2024
10 years ago

Love the velocity info, Eno! Where can we find this? Or do you just scour through write-ups from beat reporters and the like?

1
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
10 years ago
Reply to  Dave McDonald

Just from watching games and twitter.

0
davep
10 years ago

Is there a chance to get a downloadable version of this?

-1
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
10 years ago
Reply to  davep

copy paste into excel works pretty well…

11
Owen S
10 years ago

Thanks for the ranks Eno! Been meaning to ask this question for a long time, but now that it’s more relevant to me, I’ll go ahead. Just drafted Tanaka for $8 in a standard 12 team 5×5 mixed league roto (Yahoo!). I wasn’t targeting him at all but I just assumed he’d go higher. Now I find myself regretting the pick. That said, I don’t understand why he’s so high on your (and everyone else’s) rankings. I don’t get the appeal.

He’s never started more than 28 games (including Japan). So his realistic best case scenario is 28 starts, as you can be sure the Yanks will give him extra rest every opportunity they get. He’s also probably a top 5 injury risk in all of baseball. I really think the odds of him making it through the season without taking at least a month off via a DL stint is around 50%, probably less.

And if everything goes right health wise, he’s still no ace. He has serious HR problems and plays in the HR happy AL East. His K% is good but not great. His ERA is probably average to slightly above. He doesn’t pitch long in games which limits his opportunity for Ws. The one thing he has going for him is a good WHIP, which can be kind of fickle.

Anyway, I’d appreciate your take on him as I’d much prefer Hamels, Wacha, Ross, Liriano, Richards, etc.

0
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
10 years ago
Reply to  Owen S

We haven’t seen enough years to believe that he will give up 15% HR/FB when the rest of the league gives up 10%. Even his first year number (.99) wouldn’t be as much of a problem as last year, and he doesn’t have such a bad fastball that he should have a HR/FB 50% worse than the league average.

Tanaka has the ninth best swinging strike rate in the league since he came in (starters, 250 IP). and the 11th best strikeouts minus walk rate. Those things are way more sticky year to year than home run rate, and way better than anyone on your list (Hamels is closest at 19th in K-BB).

As for injury risky, Ross has terrible mechanics and has been pegged as an injury risk due to those mechanics and his slider usage, Liriano once couldn’t get through a season to save his life, Wacha has a shoulder injury in his recent past, and Richards blew up his knee and has one good season on his resume. It’s everywhere.

As for Hamels, sure. He’s one lower. Depending on my first guy, I might pick Hamels over Tanaka second. There’s obviously a little more risk with Tanaka. But the upside is great.

4
Owen S
10 years ago
Reply to  Eno Sarris

Alright, makes sense. Thanks for the analysis

0
jbona3Member since 2016
10 years ago

Great info, as always Eno. I’m interested in your thoughts on a couple guys in the 80’s: Rubby de la Rosa and Vincent Velasquez. A good amount of data that I’ve looked at suggests Rubby may be ready to breakout, but his BB numbers are concerning – wondering what your POV is on him. As for Velasquez, just wondering if you think he sticks in the rotation all year, or ends up in the ‘pen. Thanks!

0
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
10 years ago
Reply to  jbona3

I’d rather have VV because that Rubby command is terrible. I do think he’ll be able to fake going inside enough to make the change work, and he has good stuff, but minus command. VV doesn’t have as bad command and has a good selection of pitches. He has to beat out only Adam Morgan for the fifth starter role in Philly, so I gave him a good rank based on the fact that I think he’ll win that battle.

0
scotthferris
10 years ago

I’m a Braves fan desperately seeking something to look forward to this year. Are these changes based on the updated velocity data? Just wondering why the drop for Teheran.

0
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
10 years ago
Reply to  scotthferris

For me it was actually a would you rather game that he kept losing. I don’t like that he’s not using his changeup as much any more and he suddenly looks like a two-pitch pitcher with less gas.

0
33legend
10 years ago

Eno,
Thanks so much for the great list. I have a question for you on a few of the big name prospects (Giolito, Berrios, Urias, Glasnow).

I know there is always big uncertainty on how these players will develop or how much opportunity will be given them. I always thought they might be rated higher simply based on half a season of their upside would be much more valuable than a full season of a player in the same range. I understand the pitchers in the 100+ range have a lot more value in the deeper league than a more standard league. But I just wanted to hear your thoughts on how you rank the young guns. Also, what your upside would be for the 4 I mentioned above for 2016.

Thanks for your great work.

0
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
10 years ago
Reply to  33legend

Guys like Snell and Urias I just don’t see getting even 50 IP this year. The teams will use them sparingly, I feel. Gio and Berrios are closer, but even them I see teams pulling the July trick at the very least and keeping them around 100 IP. You would never do it, but what rank would you give a guy like Anibal Sanchez in 100 innings? Because that would be a great outcome for a young pitcher. So I might not have a lot of shares of those guys in redrafts, but i just don’t prefer to draft guys that will sit on my bench for months. I want to get information about my players quickly so I can move on. Adam Conley will tell us, with MLB PFx data and results, if we should hold on to him. Quickly!

0
BassDefenseMember since 2020
10 years ago

I see you moved Matt Moore up the list a decent amount from last time. I think you made some unfavorable comments about him during one of the podcasts. Is this bump up over spring performance, and could you elaborate what your current view of Moore’s prospects are?

0
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
10 years ago
Reply to  BassDefense

Someone convinced me to look at it him harder and he did find his old velocity and rise on the fastball, so I think that’s a really good sign. And on upside, he deserved to be higher. He’s a really good final pitcher in any league.

0
CasonJolette
10 years ago

What is an optimal area to draft Darvish? In a shallow 10 team league, his Yahoo ADP is around 150. Guys like Smyly, Corbin, and Verlander all all have similar ADP but rank higher on your list. Does a shallow league make you want to be less risk adverse?

0
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
10 years ago
Reply to  CasonJolette

I think he’s going to miss half the season. Teams are going with 15 month timelines now. so I’d give him about 100 IP at the very most.

0
lostatlimboMember since 2017
10 years ago

Heston looking more likely to get a starting gig (at least to start – and let’s be honest, odds of Peavey & Cain both staying healthy for much of the season seem… slim), yet you drop him in rankings and now he’s well behind guys like Shoemaker, who’ve been having horrid ST and also have only a tenuous hold on a starting gig.

Just curious what you’ve seen that would drop him down instead of up?

0
CasonJolette
10 years ago

Couple questions while we have your attention. BTW I just want to say that your love of pitching is contagious. I’m probably not the only one, but I actually love the second half of drafts when it comes to finding good pitchers.

How do you project Wacha? He had such a crazy year last season. The first couple of months he was outperforming his metrics and not striking anyone put. Then he started pitching like an ace for a couple months and really upped his K% until he finally just got lit up in September, likely from fatigue. Is there a change he made in the second half that we can believe in that hopefully he can sustain with better conditioning?

Also, in respect to Stroman,do you think he has further strike out upside and how many innings do you think they’ll let him pitch this year?

0
Jasper FranciscoMember since 2017
10 years ago

What accounted for Bassitt’s decline?

0
baltic wolfMember since 2016
10 years ago

I don’t understand why Dylan Bundy is on this list. In a dynasty league, sure, I could understand that.

But Showalter and the Orioles have made it clear: under no circumstances will he make more than a handful of starts. If he can stay healthy, he’ll work in long relief. The Orioles still believe in his future and they will protect that arm.

You might as well rank Wright or Worley for starters then. Those are the the two most likely candidates to replace any of the five starters currently slated to be part of the rotation.

Also, a word in defense of ranking Tillman higher: in 2015 he made 6 starts vs. the Blue Jays. ERA was over 11.00 when facing them. Half of all the home runs he yielded last year were against the Jays. Sit him when he’s slated to pitch against the Jays and he probably won’t hurt your team. Unless of course you’re expecting a lot of flyballs to head towards Trumbo. But Rickard has a very good chance of making the club and he will replace Trumbo in late innings situations if the Orioles have a lead.

0
Gball
10 years ago

Very intrigued by Ian Kennedy in the late rounds this year – mostly because of the better defense he’ll have behind him, and the better catcher he’ll have in front of him.

Any idea why the projections aren’t giving him the big bounce-back in BABIP or WHIP I was expecting from the move to KC? they’re also giving him -4% K rate from what he put up the last 2 years… I don’t mind being on an island, but I don’t want to be there without a key piece of info.

1
JJ17Chi
10 years ago

Amazing writeup!
A couple of questions…
Word is that Bauer has added serious velocity. Any thoughts on him?
Rich Hill obviously had as dominant a four game stretch last year as there is. Any thought that he could be legit? How much of the worry is health related vs performance?
What about Kenta Maeda? Do you think the past Japanese pitchers provide good comps?

0
baltic wolfMember since 2016
10 years ago
Reply to  JJ17Chi

I can’t speak for Eno but I decided to take a flier on Rich Hill in the later rounds of a 16 team 12 keeper league.
Unfortunately, if you’re looking for guidance based on his spring training performance, he’s been dreadful—apparently Rich Hill has become Rich Hill again. He has walked a ton of batters and during his last start (vs. a minor league team) he hit three batters.
I can only hope that he gets on the phone to Brian Bannister, the coach in the Boston system who turned his career around, and discuss what he’s doing wrong with his mechanics. Otherwise, no apparent reason to believe he’ll repeat—or even get close to—what he did late last season.

0
JJ17Chi
10 years ago
Reply to  baltic wolf

Agreed, its been an ugly spring. Last year his first 21 IP in AAA he had 8.72BB/9. Maybe he just needs to get in the groove? I think it is a long shot, but when going for long shots at the end of the draft, why not take upside? While we don’t want to put a lot of stock on spring stats (or even four starts last year), his spring has been pretty atrocious. I watched two of his games last year and he was incredible. Obviously would love to see his perform for the A’s.

0
Dave McDonaldMember since 2024
10 years ago
Reply to  baltic wolf

Personally I’d rather take a shot on Juan Nicasio than Rich Hill. Nicasio never had a chance in Colorado, battled injuries, and now could be the next reclamation project of the Pirates… he’s got good stuff. You can’t lean on ST stats, but what DOES matter is K/BB rate – it’s been shown to portend to how they pitch that year. Now, we’re still talking LATE pick here, but I’d take a flier on Nicasio.

As an Indians fan I get to see Bauer a lot… the kid has talent, but he hasn’t refined his approach enough yet – control issues won’t go away. Fine to take a later flier on him, but I’m not pegging him for a breakout.

If you want more info on projecting Maeda, this is a good place to go –

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/projecting-byung-ho-park-hyun-soo-kim-and-kenta-maeda/

looks like mid 3s ERA, 1.15ish WHIP and 8 K/9… pretty good

0
RainmakerMember since 2016
10 years ago

Do you buy the hype of your esteemed colleague on Cody Anderson?

On first blush, the velocity is great, but he looks to be missing swing-and-miss stuff — 4.3 K/9 isn’t very exciting. Looking at 2015, it also seems like he was buoyed by .237 BAPIP which was extremely low for the league and not in line with his MiLB numbers, though the 15% IFFB rate (if sustainable) is interesting. I just don’t see more than a guy with velocity….which isn’t enough to get by at the MLB level

0
Grant GilmoreMember since 2016
10 years ago

What do you think about Verlander this year? Do you buy this recent 87-94 FB velo report?

0
xavier
10 years ago

Hi Eno,

Curious about two Padres you have ranked here in Erlin and Rea. I own both in a 12-team NL-only. Erlin at $10 and Rea at $8. I was leaning toward keeping Rea until I saw your rankings. I confess Erlin was just an afterthought for me because he has never impressed at the major league level. Are you seeing something in him, or are they just both pretty bad or meh pitchers?

Thanks!

0
jeurys
10 years ago

Seems like your Tier 2 has expanded considerably. In a ten-team H2H, how many 1’s and 2’s should I reach for?

0
Dave McDonaldMember since 2024
10 years ago

So you mentioned Samardzija was down in velocity, but the Spring Training velocity changes post has him up 0.8 MPH… which is it?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Jg67sqoaBgi8mWOfnUmBDr7dPtVxzwu_zijxA3DyxsI/edit#gid=0

0
Dave McDonaldMember since 2024
10 years ago

The velocity readings for the Indians are all up – Cody Anderson +3.4 MPH, Trevor Bauer +3.1 MPH, TJ House +1.5 MPH… I wonder if the guns are hot. If so, Cody Allen (-0.9 MPH) might be in trouble

0