I stared at the two options for a long time.
Russell Martin as a 21st-round pick.
Dee Gordon as a 3rd-round pick.
I referred to my projections for each, the replacement level at their position, the surplus value over the expected return in each draft slot. I stared. I went for a run. I came back, stared.
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We are doing our March ranking updates. You can follow each position here:
We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league. If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments. We can also be reached via Twitter:
There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?! Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. The chart is sortable. If a ranker didn’t rank someone that the others did, he was given that ranker’s last rank +1.
3/14/16
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!
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Strategy Section: John Smoltz on Pitching
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• It is an extra-long MASH Report today because I spent last week in Costa Rica. Much of the older injury news I will just give a small mention.
• Jhonny Peralta will be out 10-12 weeks with a torn thumb ligament.
It’s uncertain when Peralta will be able to return to normal baseball activities, but it likely won’t be for at least two months or more.
“I haven’t heard an exact date that I feel comfortable passing around, but that’s been kind of the earmark date, 10-12 weeks,” Cardinals manager Mike Matheny said Wednesday, prior to the Cardinals’ 7-2 loss to the Mets at Tradition Field. “There’s been some people who said even less, so we’ll wait and hear what the doctor says, when he thinks he can get back into activity and when he could likely be back to play.”
Keeper leagues are fun. But one of the hardest things to predict is rookie pitching performances because there are so damn many moving parts on a big league staff. Below are three arms that have very high ceilings but no clear path to a big league job this April. Still, their talents suggest they could be impact players for their respective clubs in 2016.
Jose Berrios, RHP, Twins: Minnesota is loaded with young bats but the club has yet to see the fruits of its (development) labor on the mound. That could change if Berrios impresses the coaching staff enough to break camp with the big league club. Just 21, the Puerto Rico native made 12 starts in Triple-A during the second half of the year. In total, he threw 166.1 innings — a fairly large number for a young arm so he could shoulder a respectable workload in his freshman year. Although he has a modest frame and solid control, Berrios should not be confused with a soft-tosser or command artist. He has a firm fastball and could be an impact player for the Twins in short order. ETA: May
Fantastic news folks, it’s Bold Prediction season. The premise is simple – we make 10 aggressive, fantasy-related predictions about specific players. Then, in the comments, you tell us they aren’t bold enough. Shall we?
1. Socrates Brito will be a top 60 outfielder
I was ready to go all in on Aaron Altherr this season, but he broke his wrist. Luckily (for me), Brito has been turning heads in the Diamondbacks camp. He has the tough job of beating out big money Cuban Yasmany Tomas, but I have little doubt Brito is the better overall talent. The potential for plus-plus defense, above average base running, and a league average bat easily exceeds Tomas at his best.
While Brito isn’t a finished product at the plate, I’m predicting a decent batting average to go with 10 home runs and 20 stolen bases. I see him as a poor man’s Christian Yelich.
Last year, I performed this very exercise, in which I compared FANS projections — projections generated by fans — to the Depth Charts projections — a composite of Steamer and ZiPS with playing time allocated by generally informed FanGraphs staff. I intended to highlight the largest discrepancies and offer a quick take on them.
I explain my interest in FANS during the inaugural of this exercise. Said interest pertains largely to anticipated versus most likely outcomes for a player and how those disparities manifest themselves in price distortions on draft day.
This time around, instead of discussing five National League outfielders at length, I’ll focus on the largest differences between FANS and Depth Charts projections in playing time, home runs, stolen bases, wOBA and WAR for a couple of players per category. I’ve set a personal goal for no more than three sentences per player so I don’t spend all day doing this. Because I could, and nobody wants that.
The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X 2.0, and the process continues to evolve and improve.
After a breakout 2014 performance, Jeff Samardzija followed up with a stinker of a season. His ERA spiked by nearly two full runs, his SIERA jumped by more than a run, and his strikeout rate plummeted, as did his ground ball rate. It’s no surprise then that the RotoGraphs ranking crew don’t exactly agree on his 2016 value. His individual ranking ranged from a bullish 25 to a bearish 69, but a “split” (difference between high and low ranking) of 44, the highest mark among the top 45 consensus pitchers.
Despite his poor 2015 results, the Giants gave him a five-year contract. Let’s find out if a return to the National League and calling the most pitcher friendly park in baseball home can spark a rebound.
The Roto Riteup has returned for another season on the hallowed pages. Joining me this year will be Blake Murphy and Justin Mason, and we’ll be warming ourselves up over the next couple weeks to ensure we don’t pull a muscle when the season commences.
If you have any new features/ideas you’d like to see in this year’s Riteup, please do let us know in the comments.
3/13/16
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!
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Moves/News/Injuries/Rumors
Strategy Section: SP Guide, Tout, SXSW
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