It’s cliche, but January is as good a time as ever to consider changing some behaviors (probably in response to learning from our mistakes).  Let’s dive into how this annual opportunity to manufacture inspiration can help us improve our fantasy trade skills by reviewing why we trade in the first place.

The foundation of trade is mutual gain.  It really is that simple.  Whether we’re discussing economics or fantasy sports, trade is beneficial because it enables each party to get more of what they want at a (perceived) cost lower than what they could produce it for themselves.

If trade is mutually beneficial, it stands to reason you should consider doing it more often.  In the context of your Ottoneu league (where trading is active and sophisticated), if you’re going to make more trades, you’re going to have to make more trade offers.  Some owners are reluctant to make trade offers, so let me encourage you to live a little more dangerously this year because, in addition to improving your roster, making trade offers will provide you with a lot of additional benefits.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to the annual series: ‘A Minor (League) Review of 2015.” This series is a great way to receive a quick recap of the ’15 minor league season for your favorite club(s), while also receiving a brief look toward the 2016 season and beyond. It can also be a handy feature for fantasy baseball players in keeper and Dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Miguel Sano, 3B/DH: Everyone knew Sano had power but the young slugger took the Majors by storm in 2015 and had teams pitching around him by the end of the year (He had 53 walks in 80 games). Just 22, he slugged 18 home runs in 279 at-bats, and is already a middle-of-the-order threat. The two biggest strikes against Sano are his lack of foot speed and his inability to competently play a defensive position (something that is more or less irrelevant in fantasy, although his dabbling at third base and the outfield helps his value). With Joe Mauer at first base and newly-acquired Byung-Ho Park earmarked for designated hitter, Sano should see time in left field.

Read the rest of this entry »

When the eighth and ninth innings roll around, the Orioles will turn to a familiar pair of relief aces. Zach Britton just pitched the best season of his life. In one regard, he is the best player in all of Baseball Land. His setup man, Darren O’Day, is also the very best in his own quirky way.

Read the rest of this entry »

I heard a recent podcast discussion on whether or not it is safe to draft Michael Pineda based on his Tommy John surgery chances in 2016. Pineda would definitely be considered a risk because of the month he spent on the DL with a forearm strain and the way his velocity oscillated around the time of the injury.

Coming into the 2016 season, I pegged his DL chances at 51%. Going on the DL for a couple of weeks or missing more than an entire season are two completely different outcomes. The following is a deep dive into Pineda’s and other pitchers’ Tommy John surgery chances.

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I finally launched my never ending series of lists as we look toward the 2016 season by reviewing those fantasy relevant hitters who gained at least 15 feet of batted ball distance from 2014 to 2015. As you may have guessed, today I’ll look at the other end, those hitters who lost the most distance. Since there were surprisingly fewer extreme decliners, the list is going to include those who lost at least 10 feet of distance, rather than 15 feet like the gainers list included.

Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 297

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

• Notable Transactions
  • Wei-Yin Chen to MIA
  • Gerardo Parra to COL
  • Yasiel Sierra to LAD
• Strategy Section
  • How much – if at all – does ADP affect your rankings?
  • Follow-up: can you give us 2 SPs who you’ll be way different than ADP on?
• Twitter/Email Questions
  • Adam Roberts on Carlos Gomez

We have a new email address for questions: sleeperpod@gmail.com. Send your fantasy-relevant questions. You can send keeper questions, but those are much better for Twitter. Questions most likely to get selected are those that apply more broadly, as opposed to specific trade or keeper queries. However, if you do ask a league-specific question, please include the league size and categories.

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

I told you once, and I’m going to tell you again – I hate rankings. They create a number of disadvantages. Most trivially, rankings help less prepared owners chase down my sleepers too early in the draft. They anchor our valuations of a player to a one-size-fits-all analysis – often without regard to the specific quirks in our own leagues. Perhaps most importantly, rankings can smother creativity in the draft room.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to the annual series: ‘A Minor (League) Review of 2015.” This series is a great way to receive a quick recap of the ’15 minor league season for your favorite club(s), while also receiving a brief look toward the 2016 season and beyond. It can also be a handy feature for fantasy baseball players in keeper and Dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: James McCann, C: McCann shouldered a lot of pressure as a young catcher on a veteran team with fans that repeatedly expect to see the club in the playoffs. This young player did not look overwhelmed and he showed excellent leadership with the pitchers and on the field. The 25-year-old’s offensive contributions are nothing special, mainly because he’s too aggressive at the plate (16-90 BB-K in 114 games).

Read the rest of this entry »

So, what is Ottoneu?

Ottoneu is a smarter, better brand of fantasy baseball.  By design, it’s a fantasy platform engineered for the hardcore baseball fan that doesn’t enjoy the term “off season”.  Ottoneu is the perfect fit for FanGraphs readers looking to join a competitive fantasy baseball league with a lot of cool features, a sabermetric-economy, and a massive community of raving fans.

You can read first-year feedback from Ottoneu players here.  You can also learn a lot more about the game from the FAQ, but here are the top 10 reasons you should consider joining or moving your fantasy baseball league to Ottoneu this year:

Read the rest of this entry »

Finally, it’s time for me to start looking toward the 2016 season with list after list after list. You love lists, right? Of course you do! We’ll start preview season with a look at one of my favorite metrics – hitter average fly ball and home run distance, or simply hitter batted ball distance. A long three years ago, Chad Young and I embarked on a quest to predict HR/FB rate and found that a hitter’s batted ball distance available at Baseball Heat Maps is highly correlated with HR/FB rate. No duh. The further a batter hits the ball on average, the more home runs, shocking!

Read the rest of this entry »