Archive for January, 2016

A Minor Review of 2015: Kansas City Royals

Welcome to the annual series: ‘A Minor (League) Review of 2015.” This series is a great way to receive a quick recap of the ’15 minor league season for your favorite club(s), while also receiving a brief look toward the 2016 season and beyond. It can also be a handy feature for fantasy baseball players in keeper and Dynasty leagues.

A Minor Review of 2015: Royals

The Graduate: Paulo Orlando, OF: The Royals didn’t rely on rookies very heavily in 2015 but Orlando had some defensive value to the team in 2015. The 30-year-old outfielder isn’t a typical rookie or prospect because of the time spent honing his skills in the minors as a raw athlete signed out of Brazil. He showed some pop in his bat during his MLB debut but his plate discipline leaves a lot to be desired (five walks in 86 games) and he’ll be limited to a fourth outfielder role.

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The Sleeper and the Bust 01/24/2016 – Cespedes Remains a Met

Episode 301

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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ADP Attrition / Bust Frequency, by 2015 Numbers

“Death, taxes and fantasy baseball ADP attrition.” — Benjamin Franklin, probably

In his infinite, albeit cryptic, wisdom, Ben sagely alluded to a particularly critical truth: about 40% of the rosters you draft this March will turn over during the season.

Indeed, whether it’s by poor performance or injury, about two in every five players will be bad (or injured) enough to warrant being replaced by another. Some will generate enough value to justify owning but not doing so at their respective costs. It’s inevitable, unavoidable — no one drafts a perfect team, period. The only thing you can hope to do is (1) maximize your return on investment (ROI), and (2) minimize your risk.

For this exercise, I compare FantasyPros’ composite average draft positions (ADP) to their end-of-season (EOS) rankings for 2015. (If you happen to know where I can find historical ADP data, or if you happen to have some on hand and are willing to share, please let me know!)

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Why I Both Love and Hate Joe Ross

If the Nationals don’t add another starting pitcher by the time Spring Training rolls around, then it’s likely that Joe Ross claims the fifth spot in the team’s rotation. Ross debuted last season, making 13 starts and three relief appearances, after just 24.2 innings at Triple-A. In those 13 starts, he was excellent, striking out 22.5% of the batters he faced, while walking just 6.6% of them. He also induced grounders at a strong 49.5% clip, which paired with his strikeout and walk rates, resulted in a 3.61 SIERA. The showing has unsurprisingly already led to some preseason sleeper love. As I continue to work through my Pod Projections, I have come to the realization that I both love and hate Ross, similar to how I felt about Carlos Martinez last preseason.

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The Sleeper and the Bust 01/22/2016 – Special Guest: Mike Petriello!

Episode 300

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

We have a new email address for questions: sleeperpod@gmail.com. Send your fantasy-relevant questions. You can send keeper questions, but those are much better for Twitter. Questions most likely to get selected are those that apply more broadly, as opposed to specific trade or keeper queries. However, if you do ask a league-specific question, please include the league size and categories.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed. Please rate & review the show in iTunes letting us know what you think!

Approximately 18 minutes of joyous analysis.


Rotographs Rankings First Run – Shortstops

Some of this is being repeated from the Primer piece that went up this morning. 

We’re bringing them to you earlier this year, but that also means that they’re far from set in stone so take that into consideration as you peruse them. There are still strong arms on the free agent market, let alone all the moving and shaking that happens once players start reporting to camp.

We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league.  If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments.

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Twins’ Playing Time Battles: Pitching

The Minnesota Twins were surprisingly in contention until late in the 2015 season, but a quiet offseason mixed with an entire league that is up in the air has most projections down on them again heading into 2016. The Twins largely return an offense that was 13th in baseball in runs scored, but to their peril also returns pretty much an identical pitching staff to the one that ranked 19th in ERA and dead last in K/9 for the fifth straight season.

And quite frankly it’s easy to see why projections see a backslide. That strikeout rate streak hearkens back to the four-year dark period in which the team lost 90 games in each season, but did manage to significantly restock a farm system that’s starting to see the fruits of its labor. In the grand scheme of things a small step back doesn’t hurt if it means the club gets more production out of Byron Buxton than 2015 — that isn’t much of a hurdle to clear — and if it can get some clarity on the pitching staff moving forward.

Today, that’s what we’re going to try to do for 2016.

The Rotation

The top four spots are pretty much nailed down for the club. In some order, it’ll be:

Ervin Santana
Phil Hughes
Kyle Gibson
Tommy Milone Read the rest of this entry »


You’re Keeping Too Many Players!

Am I keeping too many players?  This is a question I am constantly asking myself as the Ottoneu keeper deadline approaches. Typically, Ottoneu leagues keep over 200 players (around 230-240) but what is the optimal amount?  Certainly it’s extremely league dependent, but is there a general way we can get an idea of how many players actually should be kept? First, we need to answer a couple questions.

Why does it matter if I keep too many players?

 Ottoneu championships can be difficult to win. If you want to increase your odds in the offseason, the main way to do so is to acquire players who are underpaid via offseason trades. These surplus assets allow you to enter the auction with more flexibility, often allowing you to purchase more talent at market value than your rivals. However, trading for surplus assets is only half the battle. Throughout my 4 years playing Ottoneu, I have witnessed many teams trade for surplus talent only to “waste” the benefit they receive from these players by keeping overpaid or marginal players.  The two often negate each other.  We want to trade for underpaid players, but we also want to be conscious of the impact of keeping overpaid players.

Let’s say that you currently own Francisco Lindor at a $10 salary and you believe he is worth $15 (a $5 underpay).  On the same team, you also own Salvador Perez at $8 and Brandon Phillips at $6 (both of whom you think are worth $3). Perez and Phillips combine to be overpaid by $8. This a simple example for convenience, but the net impact of owning these 3 players is to overpay the group by $3.  Each non-surplus asset owned counteracts the surplus assets you have worked hard all offseason to acquire. Owning a $10 Lindor is fun, removing the benefit you receive from a $10 Lindor before the annual auction even occurs is far less fun.

How many players should be kept?

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The Shortstop Mine Field

If all goes according to plan, our next round of rankings will be published later today. As you may have guessed, the position du jour is shortstop. As of this writing, only five out of seven sets of rankings have been entered into our handy shared Google doc.

It’s clear we have some deep disagreements about shortstop values. I’m going to break this into two parts – the guys I like more and the guys I like less than my colleagues. I’ll hunt for some meaning behind the madness. Because our rankings are not final, don’t be surprised if any numbers cited wind up slightly incorrect. We still need to address a couple guys who slipped through the cracks in the first run.

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A Minor Review of 2015: St. Louis Cardinals

Welcome to the annual series: ‘A Minor (League) Review of 2015.” This series is a great way to receive a quick recap of the ’15 minor league season for your favorite club(s), while also receiving a brief look toward the 2016 season and beyond. It can also be a handy feature for fantasy baseball players in keeper and Dynasty leagues.

A Minor Review of 2015: Cardinals

The Graduate: Randal Grichuk, OF: The Cardinals received a lot of value from rookie outfielders in 2015 between Stephen Piscotty, Tommy Pham, and Grichuk. All told, they compiled 5.7 WAR with Grichuk leading the way at 3.1. He played all three outfield positions and was surprisingly good in center field. At the plate, he started tapping into his raw power more consistently (.272 ISO) and went deep 17 times in 103 games, while adding 30 more extra base hits. He remained extremely aggressive at the plate — which limits his effectiveness at times — with a strikeout rate of more than 30% and a BB-K rate of 22-110.

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