Episode 286

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris breakdown the World Series and get Eno’s prediction. Who are the key players on each side? How does KC’s contact-heavy game play vs. NYM’s power pitching-poor defense mix? Would you rather have the KC SPs or NYM RPs? And more. Then they discuss the AFL, going on now in Arizona, and highlight some guys they’re looking forward to seeing in two weeks including: Gary Sanchez, Alex Blandino, Dylan Bundy, A.J. Reed, and more.

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Check out the first baseman end of season rankings. Brandon Belt hit .280 with 18 homers and nine stolen bases. He was the 15th first baseman, worth almost ten dollars. Freddie Freeman hit .276 with 18 homers and three stolen bases. He was the 21st-best first baseman, worth under five bucks. Huh.

You know why they ended up on different ends of the spectrum, of course. Partially because Freeman was hurt a bunch this year, and partially because the Braves offense was Lilliputian, the Braves’ first baseman had 128 runs plus RBI, while Belt had 141. It may not be fair that Belt was worth twice as much as Freeman because the Braves offense was no good, but it happens.

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Eric Hosmer turned 26 this past Saturday. He completed his fifth season earlier this month and starts his second straight World Series tonight against the Mets. The 2015 season was his best yet, though that was due largely to the team around him as opposed to skills growth within his game.

His .297/.363/.459 line looks a lot like his 2011 (.293/.344/.465) and 2013 (.302/.353/.448) lines, but the 93 RBI and 98 R were easily career highs. Previous highs of 79 RBI and 86 R were both set in that 2013 season. Every other part of his game looked like something we’ve already seen.

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Last week, I wrote about the various debacles facing the DFS industry. Like any short-sighted capitalists, FanDuel and DraftKings have been grabbing as much revenue as possible. Unfortunately, it looks increasingly apparent that both industry giants forgot about the nature of their service. In America, DFS is only quasi-legal. Draw too much of the wrong attention and they could be punted from one of their largest markets.

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A look at the Rotographs preseason positional rankings makes Adam Lind look like a moderate bargain. Our experts had him as the No. 21 first baseman, and he finished 2015 at No. 14. However, our experts were much higher on Lind than most fantasy players.

Lind was — rather astonishingly — the No. 40 1B selected in Yahoo drafts in 2015. He was drafted in 90 percent of leagues, but his average draft position made him an absolute steal in the 22nd round. He outperformed his 242.7 ADP in dramatic fashion, finishing the season as fantasy baseball’s No. 109 overall player.

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Yesterday, I recapped my preseason starting pitcher strikeout rate upside target list using my xK% equation. So naturally today I’ll review the other side of that list, those pitchers who posted strikeout rates well below their xK% marks, which suggested potential downside for the 2015 season.

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Last week, I re-introduced the ottoneu arbitration omnibus. It’s a one-stop shop for just about everything arbitration. Since then, Chad Young has chipped in with a few additional thoughts about this season’s allocations.

Arbitration runs through November 14. So you still have a few weeks to decide on your allocations or votes. Once the 14th rolls by, we can shift into offseason trade mode. Even though I don’t have much more advice to offer about the arbitration process, we can still discuss arbitration-adjacent topics.

You can’t trade yet. In fact, the trade wizard is completely disabled. However, nothing is stopping you from early negotiations. And, depending how those talks shape up, it can affect your (and your rival’s) allocation decisions.

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Anthony Rizzo ended up as the #3 overall first baseman according to Zack Sanders end-of-season rankings. Looking over Rizzo’s stat line about everything lined up with expectations. The 31 home runs and .278 average are well within expectations. A few additions around him in the lineup boosted up his counting stats. The only change in his stat was a huge jump in stolen bases to 17. In his previous four seasons, he only had 16 stolen bases total. I am going to examine Rizzo today especially the chances of his stolen base total staying up.

Not Stolen Base Information

The 26-year-old’s stats were in line with expectations, if not a bit better. One item which improved was his 19% K% in 2014 (and it is near his career average) dropped to 15% in 2015. Rizzo went with the approach of swinging more (44.5% to 46.8%) and making more contact (79.7% to 83.1%). If a few more of these batted balls fall in play, he could push a .300 AVG.

I could even expect his Run and RBI total to increase as the rest of the Cubs grow and mature. The team’s wRC+ has gone from 81 in 2012 to 96 this season. The 2012 to 2014 teams averaged 609 runs a season with the 2015 squad scoring 689 runs. With Rizzo hitting in the middle of the lineup, he could easily top 100 Runs and 120 RBI.

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In or around last year’s holiday season I wrote a piece for FanGraphs+ that ranked the Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2015 by position. Because it’s in the middle of the offseason, it’s often an exercise in futility to properly project playing time for rookies — especially considering the large number of free agent signings and trades that have yet to take place. It’s quite fun, nonetheless, and still serves as a good starting point for understanding who might be turn into a unexpectedly valuable fantasy player for the coming year.

And with every preview, must come a review. With the regular season now behind us and the heart of the postseason underway, I present to you a review of the projected Top 50 Fantasy Prospects for 2015. I started with the catchers and first basemen last week and today is a review of the second basemen.

Actual Weighted Runs Created (wRC+) Results
135 — Devon Travis, Blue Jays
119 — Kelby Tomlinson, Giants
105 — Cory Spangenberg, Padres
91 — Tim Beckham, Rays

Marc’s Top 4
1. Jose Peraza, Braves
2. Rob Refsnyder, Yankees
3. Devon Travis, Blue Jays
4. Dilson Herrera, Mets

Honorable Mentions
Alen Hanson, Pirates
Sean Coyle, Red Sox
Tony Kemp, Astros

Travis’ promising rookie season was cut short by injury and he appeared in just 62 games. Despite the stunted season the Jays rookie was still worth 2.3 WAR — mostly due to his unexpected offensive contribution but he was also better than expected on defence. Still, his injury opened a door for Ryan Goins to absolutely dazzle on defence and even his bat got better as the year progressed.

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2015 Visualized: Catcher

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For the next few weeks, the RotoGraphs staff will devote an entire week to each defensive position, including spotlights on particular players as well as trends throughout the 2015 season. This week, we’re highlighting first basemen.

I don’t claim to be a Tableau (or data visualization) whiz by any means, but I thought it would be cool to visually represent the first base landscape in 2015 — with some analysis sprinkled in.

Steamer and ZiPS represent premier player projection systems; FanGraphs’ Depth Charts combines the two, and the writing staff allocate playing time accordingly. The playing time part is less important relative to the combined projections, as aggregated projections tend to perform better than standalones.

Previously, I compared actual WAR (wins above replacement) to projected WAR. This is not entirely helpful in a fantasy context, however, given WAR is a catch-all component metric for offense and defense. Defense doesn’t do us a whole lot of good for fantasy purposes.

Thus, I figured out a way to compare projected wOBA (weighted on-base average) from the preseason to actual wOBA (1) by team and (2) by player within team. Unlike WAR, wOBA is a rate metric, so it does not need to be scaled according to playing time.

First: the difference between a team’s wOBA generated by first basemen and their projected wOBA. Blue represents the highest expected wOBA; yellow represents lowest expected wOBA. The size of the bar above (below) the line represents actual wOBA above (below) expectations.

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