Archive for September, 2015

RotoGraphs Audio: Field of Streams 9/02/2015

Episode 104 – Aggressively Just Barely Better Than Average

The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!

In this episode, Dylan Higgins and Matthew Dewoskin discuss Matt grimacing while suggesting Tyler Flowers, the potential strategies associated with “poxwatch,” scouting Zach Davies for his debut, calling Chase Headley the Neil Walker of third base, looking at Erasmo Ramirez’s splits, Joe Kelly’s awesome August, the return of Terrance Gore, and other baseball players with truly no power.

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A Rockie And A Hard Place

We’ve reached the Naked Lunch point of the Fantasy Baseball season—that moment when everyone sees what’s on the end of every fork. That of course doesn’t mean that we all know where we’re going to finish in our leagues. But it does mean that we know pretty much whom we’re going to finish with or be finished by. Sure, there will be unforeseen September call-ups galore, and also some waiver deals that send role players to contenders. But except for the prime prospects—Hector Olivera isn’t in the majors to sit on the bench, and Javier Baez probably isn’t either—no one knows which of the newly-summoned hitters might play regularly, or which pitchers might get plugged into a starting rotation and have some chance of success there.

Anyway, we certainly don’t. And this created a quandary for us, in our capacity of would-be timely bloggers. Thirty blog installments in, we’ve already told you about the guys we like and don’t like who’ve been around during the season. We don’t know any more than you do about who among the newbies is going to (a) play and (b) be good. And if you’re reading this, need stolen bases and nothing else, and thus can afford to have an otherwise-uninhabited spot in your starting lineup, you’ve probably already acquired the amazing Quintin Berry and his spotless SB record; you don’t need our input.

So we had nothing to blog about, until we heard that one of our heroes had died. That would be the writer/neurologist Oliver Sacks, the Mickey Mantle of his hybrid profession. Casey Stengel, marveling at Mantle, said that he “has more speed than any slugger and more slug than any speedster.” Similarly, Sacks wrote better than any doctor—we mean English prose, so don’t tell us about Chekhov or William Carlos Williams—and doctored better than any writer. His specialty was describing the strange things a brain can do when its owner isn’t looking or hasn’t been nice to it. And this, needless to say, made us think of Justin Morneau. Read the rest of this entry »


The Daily Grind: Call Ups, Aces, Byrd

Agenda

  1. Notable Call Ups
  2. Daily DFS
  3. GB / FB Splits
  4. SaberSim Hi/Lo
  5. Tomorrow’s Targets – Boyd, Byrd, Tomlinson
  6. Factor Grid

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Grant Green & J.P. Arencibia: Deep League Wire

It’s September call-up time! Other than Javier Baez, who is actually still owned in a whopping 48% of CBS leagues, there doesn’t appear to be any players with much of a chance to make a real impact in fantasy leagues. But there are still some names worth considering for the last month of the season that are lightly owned.

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Roto Riteup: September 2, 2015

With expanded rosters and the ensuing prospect call ups, I did a bit of an “All Questions Answered” post yesterday. Only about half of the questions were about prospects — I got a lot of keeper questions and “who is on an innings limit?” as well — so feel free to comment here or there. I’ll do my best to try and continue answering things on either post. For a full prospect evaluation, make sure to check out Kiley McDaniel’s Preseason Top 200 and In-season Update lists. Some of these guys were on the move at the trade deadline, and of course Kiley wrote em up because he rocks.

On today’s agenda:
1. Some notable call ups
2. Streaming Pitching Options
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Bullpen Report: September 1, 2015

A quick rundown of the early games as we head into September.

• With Brad Ziegler in need of rest after a rough outing on Monday, the Diamondbacks went to Dan Hudson for the save against the Rockies. After two hits, two strikeouts and an earned run, Hudson netted his third save of the year. Ziegler’s worm killing ways (73% GB%) are still first in line but Hudson has cemented his role in the pecking order if anything were to happen to Ziegler.

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The Sleeper and the Bust 9/1/2015 – September Call-Ups Pouring In (Sort of)

Episode 272

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris dive into some of the September call-ups who could be worthwhile in fantasy leagues such as Javier Baez, Hector Olivera, Dalton Pompey, Brandon Drury, Kennys Vargas, Frankie Montas and others. Which of the three OF trades from last night has the biggest impact: Austin Jackson, Justin Ruggiano, or Alejandro De Aza? They finish with some talk about Jake Arrieta’s transformation from bust to ace. (Yes, ace.)

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All Questions Answered: September 1, 2015

Sure, I named this “All” questions answered, but if you ask a question about volcanoes you should see Jeff Sullivan instead of me. Or for Simpsons trivia, Paul Swydan is your guy. That said if you have questions on call ups, playing time, or innings limits here in the final month of the season, I’ll be answering questions live from 1 pm to 3 pm eastern and periodically throughout the day after that. Actually, if you want to make fun of the flubbed Man U/Real Madrid De Gea transfer, how Chelsea is sitting eight points back already or how my fellow countryman Son Heung-Min is going to lead Tottenham to the Champions League (via Europa Champs, I hope), I will welcome those comments as well.

Just make sure to leave a comment below and as always, I’ll do my best to address it!

*Edit*

For keeper or dynasty formats, the more info on your settings, prices/draft slot and current standings are helpful! Help me to help you!

*Second Edit*

It’s almost 3:30 so I’ve got to stop answering for now. I’m hoping to be back around 6 pm, so be sure to continue leaving questions.


The Change: Scouting With Pitch Type Whiff Rates

fortune

We know, not only because of Taylor Jungmann, but also from the Brewers’ starter, that not all pitches thrown seldomly with good results will remain as successful when thrown more often. Sometimes pitches are successful because they are rare and unexpected. Any batter can hit an eephus if you tell them it’s coming, but your average eephus gets 7% swinging strikes, mostly because they are surprising.

That said, we have some research on what makes curves and changeups good in terms of movement. So if we combine a pitch with elite results in a small sample with an appraisal of how good the movement and velocity on the pitch, we should be able to say with some confidence that the pitch is good.

In order to find our subjects, I merely set the filter low for pitch types (40 pitches) and looked for starters with elite results on changeups, curves, and sliders. It takes 150 plate appearances for strikeout rate to be stable, so this is probably a small sample even for pitch type ‘strikeout rate’, but we’re scouting here, trying to find the elite before they are actually elite.

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NL Outfield Tiered Rankings: September

At 1 pm EDT, we will begin to chronicle September call-ups and their potential contributions in a running post organized by David Wiers. Stay tuned.

NL OF Tiers: August
NL OF Tiers: July
NL OF Tiers: June
NL OF Tiers: May
NL OF Tiers: Preseason

What’s most interesting about September, from a purely statistical standpoint, is small-sample volatility. Just like the unpredictability of April, anyone can go off — or fall flat — in the home stretch. If I’m contending, I’m trying to maximize playing time, although I will stream or start certain specialized players if I’m chasing a particular category.

I’m in a head-to-head standard roto league with two weeks of regular-season play left before two one-week rounds of playoffs. In the last four weeks, my team has roared back from a miserable 9th place to a legitimately-contending 6th, and I’m already off to a strong start this week. In other words: a lot can happen in a month, so certainly half of a lot can happen in two weeks. Hang in there.

I drafted one of my fantasy football teams this weekend. My tiers shall assume the names of my six most expensive players.

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