NL Outfield Tiered Rankings: September
At 1 pm EDT, we will begin to chronicle September call-ups and their potential contributions in a running post organized by David Wiers. Stay tuned.
NL OF Tiers: August
NL OF Tiers: July
NL OF Tiers: June
NL OF Tiers: May
NL OF Tiers: Preseason
What’s most interesting about September, from a purely statistical standpoint, is small-sample volatility. Just like the unpredictability of April, anyone can go off — or fall flat — in the home stretch. If I’m contending, I’m trying to maximize playing time, although I will stream or start certain specialized players if I’m chasing a particular category.
I’m in a head-to-head standard roto league with two weeks of regular-season play left before two one-week rounds of playoffs. In the last four weeks, my team has roared back from a miserable 9th place to a legitimately-contending 6th, and I’m already off to a strong start this week. In other words: a lot can happen in a month, so certainly half of a lot can happen in two weeks. Hang in there.
I drafted one of my fantasy football teams this weekend. My tiers shall assume the names of my six most expensive players.
Matt Forte
Bryce Harper
A.J. Pollock
Ryan Braun
Justin Upton
Yoenis Cespedes
Charlie Blackmon
Giancarlo Stanton (DL: Friday)
Andrew McCutchen
Starling Marte
Blackmon recorded a .319 on-base percentage (OBP) in August and scored 10 runs. Marte notched a .296 OBP and scored 22. Baseball works in funny ways.
Typically, names are fluid within tiers, but Bryce Harper, despite an August swoon, still definitively stands above the rest. Marte brings up the rear; his power never seemed wholly legitimate to me, slowing considerably the past three months. He doesn’t look much different than a slew of the power-speed combinations in the tier to follow,. save for a few extra steals.
Stanton’s ranking may ruffle a few feathers. Hand injuries are bad news for power hitters, and he’s as prone to a late-season slump as any other top-tier hitter. But he’s also our most likely candidate to hit double digit home runs in a single month.
Andrew Luck
Carlos Gonzalez
Curtis Granderson
Jason Heyward
Matt Kemp
Yasiel Puig
Gregory Polanco
Kyle Schwarber
David Peralta
Hunter Pence (DL: Friday)
The same power-speed combos as prior months litter the second tier. Michael Taylor continues to climb despite a woeful OBP. I think CarGo is a bit high, but if he can keep up his power stroke, he can continue to be plenty valuable.
Schwarber, like clockwork, came down to Earth a bit, hitting a meager .220 despite also hitting a boatload of home runs. I mentioned his trajectory looks a lot like Joc Pederson’s — a batting average spike, a bunch of home runs, and then a batting average free-fall — although his future may be brighter in the grand scheme of things.
Emmanuel Sanders
Michael Taylor
Dexter Fowler
Derek Dietrich
Khris Davis
Marlon Byrd
Michael Conforto
Jay Bruce
Cameron Maybin
Chris Coghlan
Austin Jackson
Jayson Werth
Dietrich is a new addition inclusion to the list. I’ve always been a fan, and his batted ball profile looks sensational for a guy who’s eligible at second base. I may be over-ranking him, but with fly ball, pull and hard-hit rates all clocking in at 40 percent or greater, his power display right now is legit.
Speaking of power: Krush is back. His batted ball profile doesn’t look quite as good, and I don’t think he’ll finish the season with the same extrapolated stats — that is, fewer than his current 31 home runs per 600 plate appearances — but he can still be your token cheap source of power.
The Cubs just acquired Austin Jackson. We’ll see how they use him; I know the Cubs called up Tommy La Stella, which would push Coghlan back to right field while Schwarber and Fowler, the latter of whom has recorded the 6th-most wins above replacement (WAR) for all National League outfielders, continue to man left and center.
Justin Forsett
Ender Inciarte
Nori Aoki
Christian Yelich
Odubel Herrera
Stephen Piscotty
Nick Markakis
Michael Bourn
Michael Cuddyer
No, Piscotty’s not too low. Dude has a .408 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) with a 5.7-percent walk rate (BB%) — he’s got nowhere to go but down. I do love triples, though, and he’s already got three of ’em.
Latavius Murray
Joc Pederson
Enrique Hernandez
Marcell Ozuna
Yasmany Tomas
Will Venable
Brandon Moss
Andre Ethier
Kelly Johnson
Jeff Francoeur
Melvin Upton
Wil Myers (DL: early September)
Matt Holliday (DL: mid-September)
Randal Grichuk (DL: mid-September)
Corey Dickerson (DL: mid-September?)
All part-timers.
I had overlooked Pederson’s slump for a while. It’s well past the time to consider dropping him or at least benching him in deep leagues. He could still catch fire in September, but, again, so could anyone else.
I don’t know when Dickerson will be back. Could be late in the month, which would make him borderline useless. If you’ve got room to stash him, sure, go for it. He’s probably better off resting up through the offseason.
Julian Edelman
Nick Swisher
Cody Asche
Kyle Parker
Domonic Brown
Cole Gillespie
Jason Bourgeois
Thomas Pham
Juan Lagares
Billy Hamilton (DL: possibly done)
Jorge Soler (DL: possibly done)
Denard Span (DL: toast)
Even more part-timey part-timers. Span will undergo season-ending surgery. Soler may not return. Hamilton could return, but it would be unwise to rely on him.
You know the drill: let’s argue in the comments. Otherwise, good luck!
Did I miss Lorenzo Cain…?
Wrong league!
Ha, thanks. I feel like a total doofus now. EVERYONE DISREGARD MY IDIOT SELF!
Where would you put kris bryant, he’s one start away from qualifying for OF in yahoo.
In the top group
Bottom of the first tier, or maybe at the top of that next tier, but only because his exorbitant strikeout rate could start to affect his batting average.
No mike trout? smdh! Also Chris Davis qualifies! GOSH!
What’s this an NL only list? SO many AL folks missing.
Made the same mistake – NL only. If I’m an idiot then you’re an idiot, so welcome to the club! 😛
Remember when you had Bruce, Joc, Granderson, Heyward and Billy Hamilton ahead of Cutch? Good times! lol.
But serious, good job, really appreciate the list!
I also jumped to see where he had McCutchen. 🙂
I’m just glad I don’t have to rank Billy Hams anymore!
Do you see any keeper potential for Coghlan in a nearly dynasty deep keeper league? Or should I just ride or the nice season he’s put up and toss him to the curb in the off season?
If what he’s doing now is worth keeping in your league (granted I fully understand its context), I’d say go for it. The adjustments he made are legit, so I think it’s reasonable to expect similar production next year (but, given he’ll be 31, with slightly fewer SBs).
The answer to that might depend on your league’s position eligibility requirements. If he carries 2B/OF into next season, yeah I would keep him. But in ESPN leagues he is 5 games short of the 20 required to carry over 2B eligibility and with rosters expanded and Javy Baez up, the likelihood that he gets the remaining 5 is slim. As an OF only, a platoon OF no less, you could probably cut him loose unless there is just no one else you’d rather keep and it costs you nothing to keep him.
Depending on when you need to have your keepers locked, you could always wait it out and see what the Cubs plan to do with him next season. It’s certainly possible Castro and/or Baez is traded which may free up at least a part time Zobrist-y role at 2B for Coghlan, which I think makes him worthy of keeping. His 110 WRC+ would tie him for 9th (with Dee Gordon) among qualified 2B this season.
Thoughts on Domingo Santana?
Kind of like Michael Taylor. If he keeps starting, could give you another 8 to 10 HR+SB but with a .200 BA.
Isn’t Pence sidelined for at least another few weeks? Heard he wouldn’t be ready for a rehab assignment even by next week…which would put him out minimum 2 weeks.
Venable is a Ranger now… he shouldn’t be ranked.
Does your Kike Hernandez ranking take his DL stint into consideration?
Nope. Wooooops.
Surprised to see you abandon statistical analysis for football. Your draft was craptacular regardless of the rules and I’d love to take your money next year. Invite me?
It’s actually true. I can’t draft a fantasy football team to save my life. I simply don’t know enough about football to make credible assessments or projections. I play the waiver wire really well and optimize matchups, and I usually contend in at least a couple of leagues every year. But I don’t have a thorough understanding of aging curves, offensive and defensive styles by coach, etc., and I don’t watch any college football. One day I’ll sit down and pore through NFL projection systems, but not today.
I think I managed my auction budget pretty well in the draft reflected in this post. I didn’t draft juggernauts, but they’re a lot more cost-effective relative to their counterparts.
While not the point of this post I would love to see the auction values for those guys. You said drafted but then stated most expensive guys so I assume you refer to draft as general term as I do.
Right. It was an auction, so not the order they were drafted. I’ll provide some other names for pricing context.
$45 Forte (relative to $64 Eddie Lacy, $49 Jeremy Hill)
$44 Luck ($40 Aaron Rodgers; but everyone underspent on QBs and overspent on WR/RB, so I actually do regret this one)
$33 Sanders ($34 T.Y. Hilton, $36 Brandin Cooks)
$30 Forsett (Hill, $30 Todd Gurley)
$23 Murray ($37 Carlos Hyde)
$22 Edelman ($25 Amari Cooper, $22 Keenan Allen)
Assuming Latavius and DeMarco Murray.
I owe you an apology. I read your lede too literally as a draft order and “most expensive” too figuratively as a colloquialism.
You did decently in your price environment. Forte would be my main quibble (imagine Chris Archer getting a pitching coach who might not let him throw sliders), but you made up for it with a heist on Forsett. Sanders has feasted on a high BABIP, to torture an analogy, and might be worth dangling as trade bait, while Edelman…I just hope it’s a PPR league. The thing to know is that there’s a TON of production in the WR tier below him (by ADP), almost enough to fill a strong 3WR roster entirely.
Based on those competing bids, I now want to play in your league even more. Double ante on the table!
More importantly, thanks for sticking around long enough to make good conversation.
Jon J. — yes, Latavius and DeMarco; full names are my tiers above
DoubleJ — it’s all good! It’s half-PPR, so Edelman gets a boost. And it’s a deep league with 2 FLEX and 10 bench. Tried loading up on $1 “upside” guys in Stevie Johnson, Cody Latimer, Leonard Hankerson.
I’d put Moss in the bottom tier. His combination of playing time and performance (or lack thereof on both counts) isn’t likely to be any better than Pham’s.
Puig is also on the DL, as of this past Friday.
Hey, where would you put Jon Jay? He’s due back from the DL within the next week and should see plenty of time in CF until Grichuk gets back. Then again, wrist injuries can have lingering effects, and he doesn’t give you much outside of AVG/OBP and Runs even when fully healthy.
Does Derek Dietrich get enough playing time to justify his ranking? He has not played the last two games, and Stanton is coming back.