Of note this week is that five of the six starts are slated to come for pitchers at home, and considering the typical home/road boost — 3.73/4.18 splits for MLB starters this year — that should bode well for these selections as we come down the home stretch.
Here are the totals halfway through week 20 (with updates from previous listing):
31-47 record (1-0)
4.74 ERA (sadly, no change)
7.0 K/9 (same)
2.3 K/BB (same)
1.41 WHIP (-0.01)
Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wRC+ in parentheses. Y! ownership numbers usually pulled courtesy of twitter pal @PandapPete21 (but not this week) whom you should give a follow:
RHP Matt Shoemaker – 23.3% ESPN – v. LAD (107), v. HOU (100)
Shoemaker absolutely has the toughest matchups of the three this week — he’s facing two of baseball’s eight offenses at or above 100 team wRC+ — but he’s also the best bet to put a good foot forward. He hasn’t been able to replicate last year’s insane success, but in two starts after his temporary banishment to the minors, he’s allowed just one earned run (0.63 ERA) with a .371 OPS against and 10-3 K/BB ratio. We’re talking about impossibly small sample sizes here and I get that, but I believe he’s trending in the right direction. Those trends are a bit more evident in the longer term as well; his last 100 innings or so since his ERA peaked at 6.61 have been quite good: 3.59 ERA, .686 OPS against and 84-26 K/BB ratio in 18 appearances (17 starts). If he’s available, I’d take a shot. The Dodgers are still pretty good on the road (101 wRC+) but the Astros are considerably worse (middle of the road at 91). Read the rest of this entry »