The Daily Grind: Iglesias, Rodon, Hicks

Agenda

1. Fringy Keepers
2. Daily DFS
3. GB / FB Splits
4. SaberSim Hi/Lo
5. Tomorrow’s Targets – Koehler, Pena, Sabathia, Hicks, Odubel
6. Factor Grid

1. Fringy Keepers

In my home league, I’ve spent most of the season in the basement. Not worrying about clawing my way back, I’ve cycled through everything remotely keepable on the waiver wire. The result is a roster with more potential keepers than spots.

We roster 28 players with three DL and one NA. We can keep any number of players at a cost of previous draft +$7. Undrafted players cost $8. My roster is positively crammed with possible keepers. I know I’m going to cut Jayson Werth, Aroldis Chapman, and Nate Jones. Beyond that, it’s mostly up in the air.

Barring a crazy September, players like Henry Owens, Eduardo Rodriguez, Darnell Sweeney, and Hector Olivera (all $8 to keep) will probably be released back into the wild. Those are guys who are relatively unlikely to return $8 of value next season. Another batch of $8 guys – Joe Panik, Nick Castellanos, Gerardo Parra, Nick Hundley, and Justin Turner leave me with harder decisions. They’re all probably $5 to $10 picks.

Luckily, I don’t have to choose any time soon. The point I’d actually like to make is this – impressions of player value can change rapidly over the offseason. If we decide Parra is for real (and he re-signs with Baltimore), we’re likely to tag him with a $15 price. What if Sweeney has a hot September? He’s a 2B/OF eligible player with a 20/40 ceiling (the floor is much lower). Analysis of ERod’s stuff over the offseason could have us predicting a breakout. Or maybe we decide Panik will never hit seven home runs again. He can’t be more than a $4 player then, right?

If you can’t find players who are slam dunk keepers, load up on these fringy types. You never know which ones will be hyped into the next Jorge Soler or Carlos Carrasco.

2. Daily DFS – Iglesias, Rodon

Yesterday’s Grind

It’s a 15 game evening slate and Kershaw/Harvey day. One of those is much better (and more expensive) than the other. Cole Hamels, Sonny Gray, Francisco Liriano, and Carlos Carrasco round out the aces. Scott Kazmir, Michael Wacha, Masahiro Tanaka, and Jordan Zimmermann all contribute the occasional ace-like experience. In other words, there is no shortage of pitching.

Looking beyond the established arms, two pitchers look like the best of the rest. Raisel Iglesias is coming off three consecutive starts of at least 10 strikeouts. While his command isn’t fantastic, he’s pitched marvelously in recent weeks. He has a tough matchup against Liriano at Great American Ball Park. BABIP has been on his side during the hot streak.

An even more volatile alternative is Carlos Rodon. The Indians offense is far from intimidating. I could see Rodon striking out eight over six innings. The challenge is outpitching Carrasco. If Rodon is lucky, Carrasco won’t be sharp in his return to action.

Other rookie options include Aaron Nola against the Braves and Jon Gray at Petco Park.

Stack Targets: Kevin Gausman, Ryan Weber, Matt Boyd, Erasmo Ramirez, Henry Owens, Adam Conley, Chase Anderson, Tim Hudson, Colin Rea

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

Just a few options today…

Eddie Rosario, Aaron Hicks v Edinson Volquez
Chris Carter, Preston Tucker, Carlos Gomez v Sonny Gray
Derek Dietrich v Taylor Jungmann
Rougned Odor, Will Venable v Taijuan Walker

4. SaberSim Hi/Lo

Wrong: I’m not sure why SaberSim hates Nola today. It’s projecting an even six innings with about four strikeouts. I know the Braves don’t strike out a ton, but they still have a terrible lineup. Nola is opposed by Ryan Weber, a mediocre righty making his debut. While baseball is never easy, the Phillies and Nola should take this victory while barely breaking a sweat.

Right: Jon Gray is not highly targeted at this point in his career. He’s shown good stuff, but his home park represents a massive challenge. Luckily, he plays at a pitcher friendly park today. SaberSim thinks he’ll perform on par with Harvey, projecting over six innings, six strikeouts, and 40 percent of a win. Honestly, everything about those projections sounds right to me. The package is obviously volatile, but he’s also the cheapest pitcher on FanDuel.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets – Koehler, Pena, Sabathia, Hicks, Odubel

Pitchers to Start: While neither pitcher is exciting, you could chase a win and decent ratios by employing Tom Koehler or Ariel Pena. We know Koehler’s brand of boring production, and the Brewers lineup isn’t particularly scary. Pena is a decent prospect who struck out about a batter per inning in the minors. He spent most of 2015 in the bullpen. I’m completely unsure how his stuff will play in the majors – reports aren’t glowing.

Also consider: J.A. Happ

Pitchers to Exploit: CC Sabathia returns in time to get hammered by the Orioles. Even though the Yankees are a normal baseball team now, we still love to hate them, right?

Also consider: Adam Morgan, Kyle Lobstein, Drew Hutchison, Joe Kelly, Keyvius Sampson, Chris Rusin, Aaron Brooks, Martin Perez

Hitters (power): Aaron Hicks is one of those players who is going to get heavily hyped over the offseason. He’s available in 92 percent of Yahoo leagues. He’ll be ranked among the top 40 outfielders entering next season. A matchup against Kris Medlen seems like as good a time as any to add him to the roster.

Also consider: Franklin Gutierrez (if healthy), Jed Lowrie, Luis Valbuena, David Murphy, Joe Panik, Jedd Gyorko, Eddie Rosario, Adam LaRoche, Pedro Alvarez, Travis Shaw, Brandon Guyer, Hector Olivera, Steve Pearce, Jonathan Schoop

Hitters (speed): I haven’t mentioned Odubel Herrera in awhile. Probably because he doesn’t steal many bases. He’s had a surprisingly effective season with the help of a .383 BABIP. He’s opposed by Julio Teheran.

Also consider: Gregor Blanco, Ender Inciarte, Ichiro Suzuki

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

We have a couple storm risks tonight. Monitor accordingly.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.