The Daily Grind: Corbin, Dickey, Blanco

Agenda

1. Happy Halladay
2. Daily DFS
3. SaberSim Hi/Lo
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Dickey, Conley, Morneau, Paulsen, Blanco
5. Factor Grid

1. Happy Halladay

Yep, it’s a pun, but he looks so happy! Hopefully you’re all enjoying your day off. I continue to work unabated. Well…I suppose I am phoning in this section. GB/FB query writer Jeff Zimmerman is ceasing his labors for today. We’ll return to regularly scheduled programming tomorrow.

2. Daily DFS – Corbin, Tropeano

Early: It’s like a Sunday today with 11 early games. Chris Sale and Max Scherzer inhabit the penthouse suite. Sale continues to roll over the competition, but his matchup with the Indians costs $2,000 more than Scherzer. That’s because Mad Max has looked decidedly human over the last couple months. Last time out against the Cardinals, he allowed 11 hits and struck out 10 in six innings. He was lucky to escape with just two runs allowed. I’m not comfortable spending the big bucks on Scherzer against the Mets.

Scherzer will probably give you at least one point per $1,000 spent. Patrick Corbin could give over two points per $1,000 spent. The $6,600 Diamondbacks ace has been inconsistent in his return from Tommy John surgery. I submit for you the FanDuel point totals of his last eight outings:

16, 15, -0.67, 8, 18.66, 0, 12, 12.33

Five of the eight were great value plays. One was salvageable with great offense. The other two were roster-breaking disasters. He pitching against a banged up but effective Giants offense at Chase Field. I’m not a huge fan of the matchup, but he seems too cheap for his upside. Other pitchers who could be reasonably expected to produce 12 points cost at least $8,000.

Late: We’re left with four games in the late slate. Zack Greinke is the grand poobah of the time slot. If you like the hot hand, that’s Yordano Ventura ($8,500). He’s averaged 17.4 FanDuel points over his last five starts with 43 strikeouts in 32 innings.

I’m not comfortable with anybody beyond the top pair, but a punt of Nick Tropeano is defensible. He has a decent command and control profile with a solid swinging strike rate. It hasn’t translated to big strikeout totals in the majors. I assume he’s pitching to contact. He’s had serious problems with runners on base during his brief major league career. Those struggles are somewhat evident in his minor league numbers too.

Stack Targets: Jon Niese, Drew Smyly, Randy Wolf, Jeff Locke, Anthony DeSclafani, Zach Davies, Justin Nicolino, Mark Buehrle, Rick Porcello, Dan Haren, Kyle Kendrick, Ian Kennedy, Roenis Elias, Williams Perez, Aaron Harang, Tommy Milone, Tropeano

3. SaberSim Hi/Lo

Wrong: SaberSim thinks Yovani Gallardo is a bum. While I think the projection system is being a tad harsh, I don’t really disagree with any of the outputs. He’s projected for a hair under eight FanDuel points. The anticipated loss from Gallardo has led to a bullish expectation from Elias. He’s credited with 44 percent of a win despite profiling as an otherwise similar pitcher to Gallardo. I see them both as unlikely winners since they’ll probably be pulled before the end of the sixth inning.

Right: I usually write section two before referencing SaberSim. I worry that referencing any numbers will bias my own analysis. Today was one of those days. I was happy to find Corbin as the fourth ranked pitcher of the day. He’s behind Sale, Scherzer, and Lynn. He’s ahead of Greinke (it’s really a tie). As I noted above, it’s a high variance affair. It’s clearly the best value play if you’re not afraid of the blow up risk.

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Dickey, Conley, Morneau, Paulsen, Blanco

Pitchers to Start: R.A. Dickey has lost his fantasy relevance in most leagues except for one oh-so-important factor. He’s often very likely to earn a victory with the Blue Jays All-Star machine powering the offense. Tomorrow is no exception against rookie Henry Owens. Dickey’s liable to post negative numbers in ERA, WHIP, and K/9. Only use him if wins are more important for you.

Also consider: Aaron Nola, Raisel Iglesias, Carlos Rodon

Pitchers to Exploit: I’m not sure if I’ve spoken specifically about Adam Conley. He’s a thoroughly bland pitcher; the kind who could wind up with a solid career like Tom Koehler or Kyle Kendrick. The southpaw seems like an easy exploit target tomorrow, and the Brewers offer plenty of freely available players.

Also consider: Kevin Gausman, Matt Boyd, Henry Owens, Colin Rea

Hitters (power): With Justin Morneau back in action, Ben Paulsen has shifted to the outfield. Now you have two decent Rockies first basemen to snipe off the waiver wire. I prefer sticking with Paulsen while Morneau shakes off the rust. They’re playing at Petco Park tomorrow. It’s a deceptively decent venue for lefty power.

Also consider: Khris Davis, Elian Herrera, Domingo Santana, Jason Rogers, Jimmy Rollins, Justin Turner, Scott Van Slyke, Jake Lamb, Chris Colabello, Logan Forsythe

Hitters (speed): Gregor Blanco doesn’t get enough love in this column – mostly because the Giants always seem to be opposed by a good pitcher. Blanco batted leadoff yesterday, has a hint of power, a high walk rate, and solid speed. He’s actually posting near-elite leadoff numbers this season. Joe Panik should be back in action too.

Also consider: Travis Jankowski, Ender Inciarte, Ichiro Suzuki

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Homer friendly weather today. The ball should be flying.

The Link.

This post is brought to Roy Halladay, Matt Holliday, Doc Holliday, and anybody else whose name works for a holiday pun.