Mike Podhozer put out the following question the other day asking if is luck or skill that Brandon McCarthy has such a high HR/FB%.

Prove that Brandon McCarthy‘s HR/FB Rate is Not Just Bad Luck

I started looking at the question several ways and came up with a final conclusion that HR/FB is probably not the perfect stat to use when trying to determine if a pitcher has been lucky or unlucky giving up home runs.

Let me start by going off on a tangent. I am of the camp that players with a huge upswing are the reason groundball pitchers, like McCarthy, have a higher than expected home per fly ball rates. All but the most upward swings will get on top of a sinking ball and drive the ball downward into the ground. The hitter with an upswing will be the ones hitting this sinking pitch. In my opinion, each pitcher will have a subset of players who swing in line with his pitch plain and crush those pitches for home runs.

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Being a lefty myself, I know how odd things can get. I may as well borrow Barry Bonds’ elbow pad when sitting at a table crowded full of righties. Writing in pen equals smearing. EVERY TIME. Don’t even get me started on right-handed scissors or three-ring binders. Living through stuff like this, it makes sense left-handed pitchers often create some interesting situations.

We’re still early enough in the season where strange-looking numbers are easy to find. One that caught my eye is the abnormally high number of plate appearances some batters have against lefties, specifically the Royals and Indians, thanks to their schedules. I’ve picked some players from those clubs whose value in the first two weeks may have shifted thanks to seeing a much higher rate of their plate appearances against lefties than normal. For reference, about 27 percent of total plate appearances last season came against left-handers. Lefty-hitting Robinson Cano led the way with 38 percent of his total plate appearances against lefties. Among right-handed hitters, Brian Dozier led the way with 27 percent.

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Two starts does not a season make, but Chris Heston is quickly making a positive impression. He’s a pitcher who shouldn’t have been on the radar of gamers entering the year, however, it might be time to re-evaluate the 27-year old right-hander. The Giants prefer keep Yusmeiro Petit in a swingman role, and Heston has bypassed Ryan Vogelsong in the rotation pecking order. Matt Cain remains a little less than week away from playing catch, according to Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area. In other words, Heston has at least a few more turns in the rotation before the Giants could have to make some decisions regarding who the five pitchers are in the Giants rotation. Read the rest of this entry »

Agenda

1. Thoughts on BvP Data
2. Daily DFS – Weaver
3. GB / FB Splits
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Salazar, Latos, Grandal, Peralta
5. Factor Grid

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Episode 10 – Happy Kris Bryant Day

The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!

In this episode, Dylan Higgins and Matthew Dewoskin discuss Kris Bryant Day in Chicago, waiting on the White Sox to get “new and White Soxy,” the Royals being pesky, Matt’s inability to cheat on Vance Worley, and how to pronounce “Andriese.”

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I can only hope everyone reading today’s Roto Riteup has seen the new teaser for Star Wars: The Force Awakens, but if not, go ahead and watch it.

On today’s agenda:
1. Welcome to the big leagues, Kris Bryant
2. The return of Danny Salazar
3. Carlos Gomez to the disabled list
4. Streaming Pitching Options
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Just a couple of newsworthy bullpen tidbits from tonight’s short six-game slate in Major League Baseball…

Up five runs in the final frame, the Twins called on Brian Duensing to close out the Royals in a non-save situation. But after inducing a leadoff flyout off the bat of Alcides Escobar, Duensing surrendered a couple of consecutive doubles and a single that yielded two earned runs before being pulled in favor of closer Glen Perkins. Perkins started his outing with a wild pitch that advanced Eric Hosmer to second base, but induced two infield groundouts to secure his second save of the season and the Twins 8-5 victory over the Royals.
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Episode 218

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris discuss the news surrounding Yasmany Tomas, Danny Salazar, Carlos Gomez, Adam Ottavino, and Mark Melancon. And then they dive into some hitters of note and discuss whether or not they have changed their tune on them based on the early start.

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This is a tough time of the year for fantasy baseball analysts. We’re not even at the end of week two meaning that in most cases the sample sizes are still too small to really be useful. The downside of this is that the fantasy analysis can become lazy as we wait for more data. Too often you see the vague, unhelpful “sell high” tag attached to any mid-rounder who is off to a high start or “buy low” on the star who has two rotten starts on his ledger thus far. But what does that even really mean? It’s so easy to say and so hard to actually execute.

Nobody who spent a top 20 pick on Stephen Strasburg (6.75 ERA in 10.7 IP) is going to move him for Nick Martinez (0.00 ERA in 14 IP). In fact, they probably aren’t going to move him at all (nor should they). You know what’s easy? Me telling you to go sell high on Chris Heston. But it’s also generic and frankly, shitty advice because it offers no insight into what selling high might be, especially because I know full well that unless Teresa Heston (that Chris’ mom, I looked it up) is in your league, you can’t really cash him in for some great return. The rest of your league is just as skeptical about his dubious 0.69 ERA as you are right now.

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• David Wright is off to the DL again and this time it is for a strained hamstring.

One day later, an MRI revealed a mild strain of Wright’s right hamstring. He will miss at least two weeks with the injury, though general manager Sandy Alderson called three weeks a more realistic estimate.

• As I predicted on Monday, Henderson Alvarez went on the DL. He is only expected to miss the minimium 15 days.

• Alex Rios is out for at least month with a broken wrist. It may be a while before he is 100%.

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