The Daily Grind: Weaver, Salazar, Grandal

Agenda

1. Thoughts on BvP Data
2. Daily DFS – Weaver
3. GB / FB Splits
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Salazar, Latos, Grandal, Peralta
5. Factor Grid

1. Thoughts on BvP Data

Batter vs. Pitcher…I don’t use it. I never once reference BvP when building lineups, nor am I even sure where to find it. ESPN presumably?

Most DFS owners swear by BvP. Intuitively, there are certain matchups that will favor a pitcher or hitter based on a number of factors. Some hitters are going to be better against certain pitchers based on release point, velocity, movement, deception, etc.

Unfortunately, standard statistics do a lousy job capturing matchup quality. In The Book, Tango, MGL, and Dolphin showed that BvP data is inherently misleading. In short, the sample size is always too small or spread over too long of a time frame. We don’t have enough information to reach a meaningful conclusion. Subsequent studies have confirmed those findings.

If you want to use BvP data, you should. I’m going to continue ignoring it.

2. Daily DFS – Weaver

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: I took a stab at building a lineup for the two game early set. My advice: don’t bother. If you were hoping to use Kris Bryant, he’s not even an option.

Late: There are a lot of stacking options at pitcher friendly parks today. If you prefer to make use of a hitter’s park, try the Astros stack against Jered Weaver. The right-handed Jamie Moyer is working around 83 mph. The Astros are known for their high strikeout, high power lineup. They should enjoy golfing some fly balls.

Weaver is wily enough to succeed against the Astros. Back when he was with the Phillies, Moyer used to flummox the aggressive Marlins on a regular basis. This Astros lineup reminds me of a more powerful version of the HanRam-Uggla led Marlins.

Stack Targets: Sean O’Sullivan, Jeff Locke, David Phelps, Nate Karns, Mike Pelfrey, Roberto Hernandez, Kyle Kendrick, Jake Peavy

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on how they perform against certain pitcher batted ball tendencies. The works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth show how ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s recommendations. Note: Pitchers with a ground ball rate above 48 percent are considered ground ball pitchers. Below 40 percent are fly ball pitchers. Click this link for all of Jeff’s picks.

In a small sample, George Springer has ridiculous GB/FB splits. He has a 1.172 OPS against fly ball pitchers and a .416 OPS against ground ball guys. Jered Weaver is of the fly ball variety. Hank Conger, Robbie Grossman, Evan Gattis, and Jake Marisnick also benefit from the matchup.

It’s also a good day to target Robinson Cano and practically all Yankees against Nate Karns (Garrett Jones, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Didi Gregorius, and Chase Headley).

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Salazar, Latos, Grandal, Peralta

Pitchers to Start: The Indians used Zach McAllister a couple days ago after Carlos Carrasco was hit in the head by Melky Cabrera. To fill in for McAllister, Danny Salazar will get a spot start against the Twins.

Salazar’s biggest issue is the free pass. He had one start in Triple-A. He struck out seven and walked none in six innings. He’s a high risk, high reward play on any given day. He’ll probably eventually oust McAllister, and a good start tomorrow could accelerate that time table.

Homer Bailey is also back tomorrow.

Also consider: Carlos Martinez, Kyle Hendricks, Jesse Hahn, Aaron Harang

Pitchers to Exploit: After a couple very shaky starts, Mat Latos is a possible target against the Mets. Latos has struggled to locate in his two outings and has failed to reach five innings in either appearance (0.2 and 4 innings respectively). A lot of the pain can be blamed upon a .579 BABIP. I’m more concerned about the five walks and two wild pitches.

Also consider: Colby Lewis, Clay Buchholz, Vance Worley

Hitters (power): Yasmani Grandal was a popular catcher sleeper this spring, but a slow start has resulted in a stampede off the band wagon. He’s owned in 27 percent of Yahoo leagues. The switch-hitter will face right hander Jordan Lyles. Dodger Stadium is friendly to left-handed power, so Grandal could pop one.

Also consider: Seth Smith, Brad Miller, Gerardo Parra

Hitters (speed): David Peralta continues to bat fourth with frequency. Assuming he starts, he’s an easy player against Chris Heston. The DBacks have a crowded outfield now that they’ve summoned Yasmany Tomas. If Peralta doesn’t play, Ender Inciarte should be an option.

Also consider: Angel Pagan, Norichika Aoki, Juan Lagares, Colin Cowgill,

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Link. It’s one of the best weather days we’ve seen thus far, but the stadiums skew towards pitcher friendly.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.