The Daily Grind: Weaver, Salazar, Grandal
Agenda
- Thoughts on BvP Data
- Daily DFS – Weaver
- GB / FB Splits
- Tomorrow’s Targets – Salazar, Latos, Grandal, Peralta
- Factor Grid
1. Thoughts on BvP Data
Batter vs. Pitcher…I don’t use it. I never once reference BvP when building lineups, nor am I even sure where to find it. ESPN presumably?
Most DFS owners swear by BvP. Intuitively, there are certain matchups that will favor a pitcher or hitter based on a number of factors. Some hitters are going to be better against certain pitchers based on release point, velocity, movement, deception, etc.
Unfortunately, standard statistics do a lousy job capturing matchup quality. In The Book, Tango, MGL, and Dolphin showed that BvP data is inherently misleading. In short, the sample size is always too small or spread over too long of a time frame. We don’t have enough information to reach a meaningful conclusion. Subsequent studies have confirmed those findings.
If you want to use BvP data, you should. I’m going to continue ignoring it.
2. Daily DFS – Weaver
Early: I took a stab at building a lineup for the two game early set. My advice: don’t bother. If you were hoping to use Kris Bryant, he’s not even an option.
Late: There are a lot of stacking options at pitcher friendly parks today. If you prefer to make use of a hitter’s park, try the Astros stack against Jered Weaver. The right-handed Jamie Moyer is working around 83 mph. The Astros are known for their high strikeout, high power lineup. They should enjoy golfing some fly balls.
Weaver is wily enough to succeed against the Astros. Back when he was with the Phillies, Moyer used to flummox the aggressive Marlins on a regular basis. This Astros lineup reminds me of a more powerful version of the HanRam-Uggla led Marlins.
Stack Targets: Sean O’Sullivan, Jeff Locke, David Phelps, Nate Karns, Mike Pelfrey, Roberto Hernandez, Kyle Kendrick, Jake Peavy
3. GB / FB Splits
The following hitters are recommended based on how they perform against certain pitcher batted ball tendencies. The works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth show how ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s recommendations. Note: Pitchers with a ground ball rate above 48 percent are considered ground ball pitchers. Below 40 percent are fly ball pitchers. Click this link for all of Jeff’s picks.
In a small sample, George Springer has ridiculous GB/FB splits. He has a 1.172 OPS against fly ball pitchers and a .416 OPS against ground ball guys. Jered Weaver is of the fly ball variety. Hank Conger, Robbie Grossman, Evan Gattis, and Jake Marisnick also benefit from the matchup.
It’s also a good day to target Robinson Cano and practically all Yankees against Nate Karns (Garrett Jones, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Didi Gregorius, and Chase Headley).
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Salazar, Latos, Grandal, Peralta
Pitchers to Start: The Indians used Zach McAllister a couple days ago after Carlos Carrasco was hit in the head by Melky Cabrera. To fill in for McAllister, Danny Salazar will get a spot start against the Twins.
Salazar’s biggest issue is the free pass. He had one start in Triple-A. He struck out seven and walked none in six innings. He’s a high risk, high reward play on any given day. He’ll probably eventually oust McAllister, and a good start tomorrow could accelerate that time table.
Homer Bailey is also back tomorrow.
Also consider: Carlos Martinez, Kyle Hendricks, Jesse Hahn, Aaron Harang
Pitchers to Exploit: After a couple very shaky starts, Mat Latos is a possible target against the Mets. Latos has struggled to locate in his two outings and has failed to reach five innings in either appearance (0.2 and 4 innings respectively). A lot of the pain can be blamed upon a .579 BABIP. I’m more concerned about the five walks and two wild pitches.
Also consider: Colby Lewis, Clay Buchholz, Vance Worley
Hitters (power): Yasmani Grandal was a popular catcher sleeper this spring, but a slow start has resulted in a stampede off the band wagon. He’s owned in 27 percent of Yahoo leagues. The switch-hitter will face right hander Jordan Lyles. Dodger Stadium is friendly to left-handed power, so Grandal could pop one.
Also consider: Seth Smith, Brad Miller, Gerardo Parra
Hitters (speed): David Peralta continues to bat fourth with frequency. Assuming he starts, he’s an easy player against Chris Heston. The DBacks have a crowded outfield now that they’ve summoned Yasmany Tomas. If Peralta doesn’t play, Ender Inciarte should be an option.
Also consider: Angel Pagan, Norichika Aoki, Juan Lagares, Colin Cowgill,
5. The Factor Grid
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
The Link. It’s one of the best weather days we’ve seen thus far, but the stadiums skew towards pitcher friendly.
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‘It’s also a good day to target Robinson Cano and practically all Yankees against Nate Karns (Garrett Jones, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Didi Gregorius, and Chase Headley).’
LOL 2013
Ha, that was a poorly constructed sentence!
ESPN does have BVP information in their player pool table. I started using it mid-season last year for my 3B in FGTG, and I’ll be honest, it seems to have worked (Best Reds 3B 2nd Half 3B, Best Reds 3B overall). I certainly don’t use it as gospel, but it sure helps to see a super cheap 3B has X HRs and hitting .400+ against a pitcher he’s facing that day, as opposed to putting a lot of money into a much more expensive Longoria or Beltre who nearly as easily have an 0-4 day facing pitchers they’ve never seen before.
But could you reach the same picks using a more scientific split like handedness or GB/FB? Probably. And if you do, the correlation to future performance is probably better.
Perhaps, but maybe those factors are already built into past success against that pitcher (specifically handedness). Take, for example, tomorrow’s matchup of Kyle Seager vs. Colby Lewis. The BvP: 8/21 (.381), with 2 HRs, and an OPS of 1.123.
Taking this one non-sabermetric step further… the ESPN player pool also has a column for Player Rater over the last 15 games. I also double-check that number to see if the player has been performing well recently, or “locked in” so to speak.
Finally – it’s fast and easy, especially in regard to FGTG since the only offensive player I have is the 3B. I can make my daily pick in a matter of 30 seconds of study.
I understand it’s rudimentary and not terribly scientific, but it worked for me last season – something I consider a small sample size of proof that there might be something to it.
What do you not like about Karns? I thought he looked pretty damn good in his last start, and the Yankees line up isn’t exactly murderer’s row…
He’s a mediocre fly ball pitcher and the Yankees have hitters who feast on similar pitchers.
Hey Brad, thanks for all you do. Is there any reason the GB/FB spreadsheet isn’t posted today. Totally understand if you don’t feel like posting it everyday. Just wondering if I missed it or it was a mistake. Thanks!
Updated. Going forward, I’ll link to the spreadsheet. I guess I forgot to save the template yesterday when I added that line.
Thanks a ton Brad. I know you do alot of this out of the kindness of your heart and I really enjoy reading and listening to you.
Hard to ignore something like Goldschmidt v Lincecum (.536 BA, 1.900 0PS) while searching for a “scientific” split. Invoking “science” for a correlation to future performance is a slippery slope. The existence of the DFS industry and is based on the art
of daily projection-at its best an educated guess. Use the math but feel free to ignore it while constructing your lineup.
I almost mentioned that Goldy-Lincecum matchup!
Sorry for the post
Hard to ignore something like Goldschmidt v Lincecum (.536 BA, 1.900 0PS) while searching for a “scientific” split. Invoking “science” for a correlation to future performance is a slippery slope. The existence of the DFS industry is based on the art of daily projection-at its best an educated guess. Use the math but feel free to ignore it while constructing your lineup.
BvP is the DEVIL and is available at ESPN and CBS. Haven’t looked at Yahoo.
Yes, it is meaningless and misleading for all the reasons stated.
PvTeam is equally as bad for similar reasons and maybe worse given the time frame involved.
But the Devil, you might ask?
Because when deciding between 2 relatively equal players for a particular day in league play (and maybe DFS, don’t know..don’t play), it gives you a subconscious push towards a choice…and it’s often wrong.
Our league has this discussion on almost a daily basis after someone used it as the deciding factor and watches the player on the bench outperform the player in the lineup.
That said, there have been batters who have “owned” a particular pitcher for some reason.
I use BvP data on ESPN, but I cross reference it with lefty/righty splits and how the batter has been doing the last 7-14 days. I also go to the game log if I have the time and check the most recent ABs vs. the SP.
As Brad has pointed out, the time frame is a huge factor. For example, if you looked at how batters have fared against Hughes when he was with the Yankees, then you might be eager to start some batters against him. But he’s moved to a much more favorable venue for a flyball pitcher and he’s resumed throwing the cutter. He’s also not afraid to come inside now, which means he’s using more of the strike zone.
Arrieta is another example of the perils of using BvP. Some batters might have terrific lifetime numbers against Jake, but those numbers were probably accumulated during his dreadful stint with the Orioles (which I unfortunately had to witness). Now that he’s pitching in the NL and has added a cutter/slider hybrid pitch, he’s a different guy.
You also have to consider park factors. Using an example from last night’s games, I liked Lackey vs. Brewers hitters because he’s pitched very well at Busch Stadium since coming over to the NL, but has been lit up at Miller Park.
Finally I found an intelligent baseball discussion!
I don’t “use” BvP a ton but I always check the numbers to see if there are any Collmenter/Posey-like numbers out there. I’ve personally been to a lot of MLB games and you can catch BvP come to life sometimes.
Tonight I’m targeting guys like (DraftKings): Cano 2B, Seager 3B, Springer OF, Rollins SS. I’m stuck on pitching… might take a stab at Roberto Hernandez or J.A. Happ.