Yesterday, I shared with you the names of a group of starting pitchers whose xK% was much higher than his actual K%. So today I’m going to check in on the opposite end of the spectrum, those starters whose xK% was well below their actual K% marks. You might call this group your bust candidates. Well, that is if people are paying for a repeat of their 2014 strikeout rates of course.
While the Rays lack a clear number one a la David Price, the team has plenty of depth with SP2/3/4 types, all fantasy worthy for at the very least stream starts. There is value to be had in Tampa, but much of it will come in the later rounds/cheaper cost than previous seasons.
Episode IV, A New Hope
Alex Cobb
Chris Archer
Jake Odorizzi
Drew Smyly
Episode V, The Minors Strike Back
Alex Colome
Nate Karns
Episode VI, Return of the Injured
Matt Moore
Burch Smith
Read the rest of this entry »
This post continues our Depth Chart Discussions. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, rotation, and bullpen) and will continue to break them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find the Depth Chart Discussion posts gathered here.
As Eno examined a couple of weeks ago, the Red Sox infield has seen some changes this offseason. (The same would hold true for the Red Sox’s rotation and outfield for that matter.) But no team in the league has seen more changes to their infield than the Oakland A’s, whose 2015 opening day lineup projects to return exactly zero starters from the 2014 version.
The Astros rotation was surprisingly decent last year. As a staff they totaled 12.4 WAR which made them the 12th best rotation in the league by that metric. But I’m about 99.9% sure no Astros starter had an ADP that made him a regular selection in 12-team mixed leagues. Yet they ended up producing the 20th and 33rd most valuable fantasy starters. Insane. But drafters aren’t totally buying it as those same two pitchers currently have ADPs of 53 and 65. Perhaps the most surprising thing about this staff is that the five starters who threw the most innings for Houston last year may be the same five starters to begin the year with only one real threat to steal a rotation spot. For a rotation that no one thought was any good just a year ago on a team that is still rebuilding, it’s surprising not to see much, if any, turnover. Read the rest of this entry »
It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.
The White Sox had an aggressive offseason, adding plenty of fantasy-relevant talent to an interesting core. Two-thirds of their outfield was already drawing attention as mid-round guys with breakout potential. They added another mid-rounder – though he is of the established variety – this offseason making their starting outfield one of the more alluring fantasy units in the game.
The Washington Nationals are arguably the most complete team in baseball. They do have one area where they look considerably less impressive than the others – the bullpen. None of Washington’s relievers project to be elite and only one youngster seems to have the components necessary for a breakout. While relief isn’t a strength for the Nationals, it isn’t a weakness either.
Last year, I shared my updated xK% equation, which blends a pitcher’s overall strike percentage with his called, swinging and foul strike rates to produce an expected strikeout rate. While its wonderfully high adjusted R-squared tells us how well it works, it’s even better used when dealing with a small number of innings since the metric uses pitches thrown, greatly alleviating sample size issues. It’s therefore a huge help when projecting young starting pitchers for my Pod Projections who were up in the Majors for just a grande sized cup of coffee.
Episode 189
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!
In this episode, Eno Sarris and Paul Sporer talk about the news topics which include notes on: Mike Moustakas, Brandon Belt, Lucas Duda, Desmond Jennings, John Axford, and Casey Janssen.
Then we jump into our divisional previews, starting with the AL East where we get to Baltimore and Boston today with New York, Tampa Bay, and Toronto on deck for Thursday. We each discuss a hitter and pitcher that we’re interested in from those ballclubs at their current draft costs.
RG work relevant to today’s podcast:
As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us (click our names above) or comment with fantasy questions so that we may answer them in our next episode.
You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.
Thanks to Ian Miller, aka Teen Archer, for the intro/outro music. Approximately 102 minutes of joyous analysis.
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It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.
The Boston Red Sox bullpen has a clear closer in Koji Uehara, but following him, there are some questions. Burke Badenhop, who led the Sox pen with 70.2 innings last season is currently a free agent and the club appears to be shopping the normally dependable Edward Mujica. Andrew Miller posted an incredible season in 2014 but he now pitches for the Yankees. There are holds to be had, but it is a question of distribution.
Closer
Koji Uehara
Setup
Junichi Tazawa
Edward Mujica
In the mix
Anthony Varvaro
Brandon Workman
Robbie Ross
Also rans
Alexi Ogando
Craig Breslow
Tom Layne
Heath Hembree
Drake Britton
It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.
Maybe Boston’s treating their outfield like most teams treat their starting rotation — their depth is astounding. They could fill the outfield twice over with players that could be above average given the time. The trick then, for us, is to try our best to figure out which ones will play the most. There might not be a lock in the crowd, but there’s a lot of talent.