The Tampa Bay Rotation: A New (Ray of) Hope

While the Rays lack a clear number one a la David Price, the team has plenty of depth with SP2/3/4 types, all fantasy worthy for at the very least stream starts. There is value to be had in Tampa, but much of it will come in the later rounds/cheaper cost than previous seasons.

Episode IV, A New Hope
Alex Cobb
Chris Archer
Jake Odorizzi
Drew Smyly

Episode V, The Minors Strike Back
Alex Colome
Nate Karns

Episode VI, Return of the Injured
Matt Moore
Burch Smith

Episode IV
These guys are the new hope because Cobb is the old man of the group, coming in at 27-years-old. Cobb and Archer will anchor the front end of the rotation, as both post above league average strikeout rates and at least meet the average for ground ball rate. Cobb’s 56.2% GB% rated as the fourth highest rate for any qualified starter in baseball and he should be the first Rays starter off the board.

Archer is certainly no slouch himself, as including the minors, he has made 30+ starts for two straight seasons and hasn’t posted a major league ERA north of 3.40 yet. The ERA estimators, especially his 3.78 career SIERA, don’t love him quite as much as Archer was fortunate in the home run department, posting a 6.9% HR/FB rate — good for 13th best in baseball — and that number will most likely regress closer to the league average 9.8ish mark. Given his 11.7% mark in 2013, though that came in a 128.2 inning sample size, expect a few more long balls from Archer this year. Minor quibbles aside, Archer should continue to be a reliable source of strikeouts and solid ratios.

Odorizzi may not be your typical bounce-back guy, after all he posted a 9.32 K/9 and a 2.95 K:BB ratio, but a rather ugly 4.13 ERA last year hurt his value, especially compared to the league average 3.82 mark. His extreme fly ball nature — his 48.7% FB% was second highest in baseball last year — will lead to some home runs. Odorizzi allowed 20 dingers but kept his 8.7% HR/FB% lower than average due to the sheer number of fly balls he allows. He should be an automatic start at home or in pitcher friendly parks, but you may want to bench him at U.S. Cellular for example.

Despite some struggles against opposite-handed hitters, Smyly was very successful across 25 starts with Detroit and Tampa Bay last year. He held lefties to a .216 wOBA but righties hit for a .334 wOBA against Smyly last season, slightly worse than the average .322 wOBA put up by right-handed hitters against southpaws. Still, Smyly figures to be a prominent member of the Tampa rotation due to his 9.9% swinging strike rate leading to his share of strikeouts as well as a strong walk rate.

Episode V
Colome and Karns may very well be the biggest question mark of the opening day rotation as they battle for the fifth spot. Colome was limited to just three big league starts after being hit with a 50 game suspension last season and hasn’t pitched even 40 innings in the big leagues yet. His control, even in the minors, could never be described as stellar and unless he strikeouts a ton of batters, his career walk rate of 4.31 BB/9 won’t let him keep a starting job for long.

Karns managed to make a pair of big league starts late last season and outside of allowing three home runs in his 12 innings, he impressed. Our own Kiley McDaniel is leaning towards Karns (and potentially Colome) heading to the bullpen, but does note Karn’s strong curveball.

Episode VI
Matt Moore, my second favorite Moore behind Mandy, probably won’t be back in the rotation until June at the earliest, but could still be valuable as a later round pick. His control hasn’t been what it was in the minors, but Moore should still be able to provide value through missing bats and a solid ERA, just beware of the walks. In a recent industry mock draft with 15 teams and 23 rounds, Moore went in the 21st round. In shallower leagues he may not be drafted at all, just make sure to closely monitor is comeback.

While Smith doesn’t have the hype that Moore does, Smith could still have an impact on the Rays rotation. Though he most of the 2014 season with a forearm strain, Smith has a shot to make a handful of starts if Colome and Karns can’t stick as a starter.

While the Rays have plenty of options to create their starting five, Cobb, Archer and Odorizzi have the most fantasy value this year. Moore could come back strong and Smyly could continue to surprise, but a lack of another pitch for Smyly could be his undoing. Stick with drafting the top three for the Rays and use the rest of their staff as stream guys for now.





You can catch David spouting off about baseball, soccer, esports and other things by following him on twitter, @davidwiers.

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russell
9 years ago

Colome is out of options so he’s gotta stick in the majors one way or another. Is a late inning weapon out of the question if he can’t stick as a starter this season?