The Mets have conducted a quiet offseason. Rumors about the infield swirled for months. Daniel Murphy is one year from free agency, will he be traded? Wilmer Flores fits better at second base, can the Mets acquire Troy Tulowitzki? It’s too early to definitively say “no” to both questions, but we can almost rule out a trade.
Episode 190
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!
In this episode, Eno Sarris and Paul Sporer talk about the news topics which include notes on: Victor Martinez, Josh Hamilton, Ken Giles, Dayan Viciedo, James Shields, and Yoan Moncada (no player page, link goes to Carson’s contract crowdsourcing article).
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The New York Yankees saw two of their starting three outfielders miss the end of the season due to injuries last year. Both Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran lost some time, with Beltran being limited to 109 games last year. Ellsbury did managed to play the vast majority of the season however, as both he and Brett Gardner posted over 630 plate appearances each, though Gardner himself is coming off of surgery for a sports hernia this off-season. When healthy, all three starting OFers offer fantasy owners various stats, but the outfield reserve for the Yankees could prove valuable as well.
Center Field
Jacoby Ellsbury
Chris Young
Left Field
Brett Gardner
Chris Young
Right Field
Carlos Beltran
Chris Young
Garrett Jones
In the minors
Jose Pirela
Tyler Austin
Mason Williams
Rob Refsnyder
Taylor Dugas
Ramon Flores
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Last year for my FG+ article I created a methodology to find unheralded prospects similar to Ben Zobrist and Matt Carpenter by looking at recent minor league walk, strikeout and extra base hit numbers. I named my metric ZOBRIST and it performed better than I expected. I identified 10 players to watch for during the 2014 season and few had good MLB seasons like Kole Calhoun, Marcus Semien and Scott Van Slyke. I have decided to look again for similar players in 2015 with a few changes to the evaluations.
One issue I noticed when I went back and looked at the data was how one of the three traits (power, walks and strikeouts) could hurt the hitters chances for success. A hitter could have no strikeouts, a ton of walks and zero power so they could rate high with my metric. The problem is that the complete lack of power would get exposed in the majors. I needed to set a minimum level for each of the three stats. I use Chris St. John’s minor league walk and strikeout values and a replace level power numbers to set a minimum baseline each hitter must reach.
The Washington Nationals have such an embarrassment of riches in their starting pitching rotation, there has actually been talk of trading wunderkind Stephen Strasburg because, well, they could probably get away with it. Take your pick of #1 starters here, because all five could be featured at the top of the rotation for many teams. Max Scherzer, Jordan Zimmermann, Stephen Strasburg, Doug Fister, and Gio Gonzalez make up their normal rotation, making the odd man out a 3-win pitcher from 2014 named Tanner Roark.
According to ERA and xFIP, the Mariners had the best bullpen in baseball last year, a fact that broadcaster Dave Sims was not shy in pointing out. With a pen full of gas cans — most of whom can pitch multiple innings if needed — opponents don’t get a chance to pick on a weak link in the late innings. Though they lost Brandon Maurer in a trade with the San Diego Padres, the Mariners bullpen should be in competition to retain their title in 2015.
The Closer: Fernando Rodney
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This 30-part series will look at the projected Top 5 freshmen contributors for each big league club for the year ahead. The rankings take into consideration a mixture of ceiling, readiness and potential playing time allocation, which is to say some players with lower ceilings may be ranked ahead of others with higher ceilings because they project to have a greater impact in the coming season.
In a Nutshell: New York doesn’t have the deepest system but it continues to produce big league contributors and its Class of 2015 could be one of the best in the Majors — if the rookies are given enough playing time to strut their stuff.
1. Jacob Lindgren, LHP: The club’s second-round pick in 2014, Lindgren allowed just 12 hits in 25.0 innings of work while pitching at four different levels of affiliated ball. The under-sized lefty also showed his dominance by striking out 48 batters and kept the ball almost solely on the mound when contact was actually made. Lindgren and Luis Severino (see below) could make for a dominating tandem of high-leverage relievers in the years to come.
Homer Bailey was really coming into his own as we began 2014. He had gotten incrementally better in each of his first seven seasons, bettering his K:BB ratio each season and stringing together five years of ERA improvements from 2008-2013. But then he came out and dropped an ERA north of 5.00 for the first two months of the season. He rebounded in the summer, but then a strained flexor tendon ended his season in early-August. He had surgery a month later (September 5th) and is slated to be ready for Spring Training. In fact, a December 5th report suggested he was actually ahead of schedule.
As you know, it’s mock draft season. It’s a time to be friendly with our fantasy drafts. Often, we’ll openly discuss how we view certain players or why we’re building a fake roster in a specific way. That extends to congratulating others on “good” picks. Avisail Garcia is one player who always garners a pat on the back. If you can’t tell, I don’t understand the love. I’d like to. I’m open to hearing explanations.
It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.
The Blue Jays enter the 2015 season with high expectations, which is a common refrain from recent seasons that has yet to turn into a playoff berth. Despite that real-life disappointment, many of the team’s moves in recent seasons have created fantasy success. Elite players Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion anchor their lineup, and some new additions offer fantasy potential to varying degrees, especially in the infield.
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