The Yankees Outfield: Risk and Reward

The New York Yankees saw two of their starting three outfielders miss the end of the season due to injuries last year. Both Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran lost some time, with Beltran being limited to 109 games last year. Ellsbury did managed to play the vast majority of the season however, as both he and Brett Gardner posted over 630 plate appearances each, though Gardner himself is coming off of surgery for a sports hernia this off-season. When healthy, all three starting OFers offer fantasy owners various stats, but the outfield reserve for the Yankees could prove valuable as well.

Center Field
Jacoby Ellsbury
Chris Young

Left Field
Brett Gardner
Chris Young

Right Field
Carlos Beltran
Chris Young
Garrett Jones

In the minors
Jose Pirela
Tyler Austin
Mason Williams
Rob Refsnyder
Taylor Dugas
Ramon Flores

Center Field
At this point we should feel comfortable penciling Ellsbury for 30+ steals and a solid average, but seeing his 16 home runs last year was a pleasant surprise. While his 32 home run season will probably be a career high, Ellsbury managed just 13 in 2012-13 combined. Yankee Stadium 2.0 plus Ellsbury’s left-handed swing means a few extra dingers and given the chart below, every single one of his home runs was to his pull side.

If Ellsbury can post another 15+ home run while getting some average back — his .296 BABIP was the lowest of his career for any qualified season —  then he certainly justifies his second round draft status, as per Couch Managers. On the other hand, his home runs could have been a conscious change as an attempt to reach the short porch at home. It should be noted Ellsbury’s 41.8% ground ball rate last season was the lowest of his career and could be a real change by him. If it comes down to hitting 10 home runs to go with a .300 average or 15 home runs and .270, I personally prefer the former.

Young figures to gather playing time across all three outfield positions, though he may find himself backing up Beltran more than anyone, due to his injury history. As a fourth outfield Young is playable as he does have some power and some speed, but he is probably best used in a platoon fashion given his career 116 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers and 85 wRC+ versus righties.

Left Field
Gardner is coming off a minor hernia surgery performed back in November and assuming he is healthy, should produce another solid season. He may no longer be a 40+ steal guy yet Gardner still should be able to grab 20 bases this season, making it three years in a row in which he has done so. Expect plenty of runs scored from him as usual, as he figures to once again be the Yankees leadoff hitter but don’t count a repeat performance of his 17 home runs this season. His 11% HR/FB rate last season was far above his 6.5% career average and is a pretty clear outlier.

Jones will probably get time at first base as well as the corners, and could form a platoon with Young in the event Beltran is forced to miss significant time. If you can handle a poor average/on-base percentage, Jones is another guy who could hit 15 home runs even in a part time role thanks to his home park.

Right Field
All things are pointing to Beltran being ready for spring training, however he’ll be playing his age 38 season and bodies tend to heal a little slower as they age. The injuries clearly had an ill effect on Beltran last season as he hit below the league average for the first time since 2005. Expect him to continue getting regular starts at designated hitter to try and keep him fresh, but Beltran is probably best left as a late round pick at this point. He may club 15-20 home runs again, just keep any one his rates as Beltran’s triple slash has fallen for three consecutive seasons.

In the Minors
While Aaron Judge probably won’t make the major league level this season, the Yanks do have some solid options to call up if need be. Of the listed minor leaguers only Austin is yet to get a taste of Triple-A pitching, with Pirela getting a taste of big league pitchers last season. Refsnyder is focusing on his second base skills, though he does have a small amount of time in the outfield. Count on Pirela getting the first call-up, though any of he, Williams and Austin are the most likely three to be called up in some order. A full write up of many of the prospects has been done by our own Kiley McDaniel can be found here.

Of the three likely starters, there is early, mid and late round options in the Yankee outfield. They also sport a ton of upper minors talent that could make an impact in any category from AVG/OBP to power and speed. For most fantasy purposes, Ellsbury, Gardner and Beltran seem to offer the most of the OF eligible players, but don’t forget about waiver wire guys who can be useful with the right match-up in Jones and Young or any of the kids on the farm.