2015 Pod Projections: Yasmany Tomas
The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X, and the process continues to evolve and improve.
Today’s Pod Projectionee is Cuban rookie Yasmany Tomas, who I drafted in last week’s LABR mixed league. It’s hard enough projecting Major League veterans and even more difficult forecasting rookies with only minor league data to rely on. But trying to predict exactly what a player with no professional experience in a stateside league might do is a true shot in the dark. So this was a challenge and one I would like to share with you.
Pod Projections Index:
Anthony Rendon
First, let’s get all of the data we do have out of the way.
| Year | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | R | RBI | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | ISO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 91 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 19 | 12 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 0.297 | 0.350 | 0.385 | 0.088 |
| 2010 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0.192 | 0.185 | 0.385 | 0.193 | |||
| 2012 | 226 | 68 | 13 | 1 | 16 | 10 | 44 | 36 | 42 | 4 | 2 | 0.301 | 0.340 | 0.580 | 0.279 |
| 2013 | 127 | 44 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 19 | 24 | 25 | 1 | 3 | 0.346 | 0.403 | 0.638 | 0.292 |
| 2014* | 231 | 67 | 15 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 46 | 28 | 35 | 6 | 6 | 0.290 | |||
| Career | 701 | 211 | 40 | 7 | 32 | 51 | 135 | 104 | 116 | 15 | 15 | 0.301 | 0.349 | 0.515 | 0.272 |
| Per 550 AB | 550 | 166 | 31 | 5 | 25 | 40 | 106 | 82 | 91 | 12 | 12 |
| Year | AB/2B | AB/3B | BB% | K% | BABIP | AB/HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 30.3 | 91 | 8.1% | 19.2% | 0.366 | 91.0 |
| 2010 | 0.0 | 26 | 0.0% | 26.9% | 0.222 | 26.0 |
| 2012 | 17.4 | 226 | 4.2% | 18.6% | 0.313 | 14.1 |
| 2013 | 14.1 | 64 | 8.6% | 13.7% | 0.360 | 15.9 |
| 2014* | 15.4 | 116 | 8.3% | 18.3% | 0.341 | 38.5 |
| Career | 17.5 | 100 | 6.8% | 18.0% | 0.335 | 21.9 |
*I combined his 2014 statistics that had been split, which is why there is no OBP and SLG calculated
Would it have been beneficial to turn the above metrics into rates compared to the league average? Sure, but this is all I’ve got to work with for now, so we’re going with it.
Plate Appearances: 600
Unless he’s a complete flop at the plate, he’s going to be in the lineup all year assuming he remains healthy. The Diamondbacks are going nowhere and have every reason to see exactly what they have with Tomas by giving him a full season of at-bats.
K%: 21%
His career strikeout rate in Cuba was 18% and you have to assume that the quality of hurlers and their respective strikeout abilities is higher here in the States. My 21% projection is ever so slightly worse than the league average last year. This is all just a wild guess of course, but it feels reasonable to me, and allows for both some upside and downside, which is what a projection should be.
GB%/LD%/FB%: 44% / 20% / 36%
This is essentially league average. It’s what happens when you have absolutely no batted ball distribution data to analyze. Unfortunately, his distribution is going to play a role in his power output. More flies = more homers, fewer flies = fewer homers, all else being equal.
BABIP: .310
He posted a .335 mark throughout his career in Cuba, so he either possesses skills to convert balls in play into hits or the defenses in Cuba are significantly worse. Or a combination of both. Once again, batted ball data would be a big help here.
HR/FB Ratio: 15%
Power is Tomas’ calling card. Chase Field augments right-handed home runs by 10%, tied for the eighth most favorable park in baseball. For the third time, batted ball data would be wonderful! We don’t know what kind of HR/FB rates he managed in Cuba, as all we could calculate are AB/HR marks, which are far less insightful. Tomas’ career AB/HR mark was about 22 in Cuba. My projected HR/FB rate, combined with his strikeout rate and batted ball distribution result in a projected AB/HR rate of 24. Fair? Unfair? Should we expect more regression against tougher competition? But what about his 2012 and 2013 performances where he posted mid-teens AB/HR marks? So many question and yet answers we won’t learn until at least this season has been completed.
RBI and Runs: 84 and 71
Tomas figures to hit fifth in the D-Backs order, behind a collection of men of which only Paul Goldschmidt should be expected to post a strong OBP. And of course, the first baseman will be knocking in a whole lotta guys himself, along with fellow bopper Mark Trumbo from the cleanup spot. Over the past three seasons, the fifth hole in the National League produced an average of 86 runs batted in, but that number includes every hitter that batted from that spot. Tomas isn’t going to play 162 games and notch 700 plate appearances. But then Tomas is projected to hit for more power than the average NL fifth hole hitter. So based on an RBI per ball in play analysis, 84 is where the math landed.
For his career, Tomas hasn’t shown much of a propensity to take a walk. His career mark is just 6.8%, but he sat above 8% in 2013 and 2014, which is a good sign. Still, I’m projecting just a .322 OBP. It’s why his runs scored projection is mediocre, despite the fact that NL fifth hole batters have averaged 78 runs scored and I project him to score himself on his 23 homers.
SB: 5
Surprisingly, Tomas has shown a willingness to run. One wonders why though considering his poor 50% success rate. But his stolen base attempts, combined with his triples total, does suggest that he’s not a total zero in the speed department. For those curious, I projected three caught stealings to go along with those five successful attempts. I just assume he’ll be a little smarter about running here.
Below is my final projected fantasy batting line, along with the other systems for comparison.
| PA | AVG | HR | RBI | R | SB | K% | BABIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pod | 600 | 0.271 | 23 | 84 | 71 | 5 | 21.0% | 0.310 |
| ZiPS | 520 | 0.254 | 21 | 60 | 61 | 4 | 18.3% | 0.293 |
| ZiPS – 600 PA | 600 | 0.254 | 24 | 69 | 70 | 5 |
I shared my surprise at ZiPS’ low RBI projection yesterday, and our batting average difference is solely due to BABIP, which is a crapshoot, really. He’s currently getting drafted in NFBC leagues at 151 on average, going as early as 82 and as late as 222(!!). I think it’s a reasonable price to pay and if anything, he appears slightly undervalued if you believe my projection. And of course, there is seemingly lots of profit potential, which outweighs the risk at that cost.
Who do you want to see get the Pod Projections treatment next?
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
How about Dee Gordon? I think that’d be interesting
Well, since you are taking requests and to continue the limited data-international signee theme, how about Jung-Ho Kang?
Brian McCann…the guy heralded as a huge free agent signing in 2014 had a “down year” relative to expectations. Curious to see if you think his numbers tick up, stay the same or fall, given a full year under his belt at Yankee Stadium.
How about Ryan Braun? Supposedly healthy now. Curious how he projects after two shortened seasons. Thanks for doing these. They’re great reads!
Sorry, but some of this post seems lazy.
For example, let’s compare him to players who actually played in Cuba.
I’m only considering seasons when a player was 20 or older. Yoenis Cespedes had a K% in Cuba of 11.5%, and 21% in the majors. Jose Abreu had a K% of 13% in Cuba, and also 21% in the majors. If we only consider his 20+ seasons, Tomas has a K% of 17% in Cuba. It stands to reason that he will strike out a bit more than Abreu or Cespedes. From this alone, I would guess that his K% will be a few percentage points higher than 21%, perhaps about 23%, which will drive down the batting average closer to ZiPS.
Something similar could certainly be done with the other metrics.
You’re using a sample size of 2 players and think that’s better? And if my K% projection is too low, you must think ZiPS is crazy! The batting average difference is not a K% thing, it’s a BABIP thing.
But you’re using a sample size of zero and just throwing out a wild guess without evidence at all. And citing another projection system that also made a wild guess on how much he will K is not good evidence. What does ZIPS know about Cuban players? Dos it have a track record of being successful projecting Cuban imports? It might, but you didn’t give any evidence of that. I liked the article but that response was ridiculous. Anecdotal evidence ia better than no evidence at all.
You’re guessing either way. It stands to reason that Tomas, who had a worse than average K% in Cuba, would also have a worse than average K% in the USA. He has age on his side, though. I will personally project him for something closer to a 25% K%, but what really seems crazy is to quibble over a few percentage points when we all know that we don’t know.
Springer would be a good one. Projections are allll over the place.
I admire your frank evaluations. It’s nice to see someone admit their assumptions and wild quessing when it comes to projections here and elsewhere. One area that is lacking is consideration of how the manager projects to use their available talent. Besides the obvious of setting the lineup a manager makes various moves that will influence the performance and stats of their players… so to suggest Tomas’ stolen base numbers based on past performance is a shallow call.
how about Posey (sans Panda).
It’s true, manager tendencies, especially with the stolen base, are important. Unfortunately we have no idea how aggressive Chip Hale is going to be!