2015 Pod Projections: Yasmany Tomas

The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X, and the process continues to evolve and improve.

Today’s Pod Projectionee is Cuban rookie Yasmany Tomas, who I drafted in last week’s LABR mixed league. It’s hard enough projecting Major League veterans and even more difficult forecasting rookies with only minor league data to rely on. But trying to predict exactly what a player with no professional experience in a stateside league might do is a true shot in the dark. So this was a challenge and one I would like to share with you.

Pod Projections Index:
Anthony Rendon

First, let’s get all of the data we do have out of the way.

Year AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO R RBI SB CS AVG OBP SLG ISO
2009 91 27 3 1 1 8 19 12 11 4 3 0.297 0.350 0.385 0.088
2010 26 5   1 1   7 4 3   1 0.192 0.185 0.385 0.193
2012 226 68 13 1 16 10 44 36 42 4 2 0.301 0.340 0.580 0.279
2013 127 44 9 2 8 12 19 24 25 1 3 0.346 0.403 0.638 0.292
2014* 231 67 15 2 6 21 46 28 35 6 6 0.290      
Career 701 211 40 7 32 51 135 104 116 15 15 0.301 0.349 0.515 0.272
Per 550 AB 550 166 31 5 25 40 106 82 91 12 12        

Year AB/2B AB/3B BB% K% BABIP AB/HR
2009 30.3 91 8.1% 19.2% 0.366 91.0
2010 0.0 26 0.0% 26.9% 0.222 26.0
2012 17.4 226 4.2% 18.6% 0.313 14.1
2013 14.1 64 8.6% 13.7% 0.360 15.9
2014* 15.4 116 8.3% 18.3% 0.341 38.5
Career 17.5 100 6.8% 18.0% 0.335 21.9

*I combined his 2014 statistics that had been split, which is why there is no OBP and SLG calculated

Would it have been beneficial to turn the above metrics into rates compared to the league average? Sure, but this is all I’ve got to work with for now, so we’re going with it.

Plate Appearances: 600

Unless he’s a complete flop at the plate, he’s going to be in the lineup all year assuming he remains healthy. The Diamondbacks are going nowhere and have every reason to see exactly what they have with Tomas by giving him a full season of at-bats.

K%: 21%

His career strikeout rate in Cuba was 18% and you have to assume that the quality of hurlers and their respective strikeout abilities is higher here in the States. My 21% projection is ever so slightly worse than the league average last year. This is all just a wild guess of course, but it feels reasonable to me, and allows for both some upside and downside, which is what a projection should be.

GB%/LD%/FB%: 44% / 20% / 36%

This is essentially league average. It’s what happens when you have absolutely no batted ball distribution data to analyze. Unfortunately, his distribution is going to play a role in his power output. More flies = more homers, fewer flies = fewer homers, all else being equal.

BABIP: .310

He posted a .335 mark throughout his career in Cuba, so he either possesses skills to convert balls in play into hits or the defenses in Cuba are significantly worse. Or a combination of both. Once again, batted ball data would be a big help here.

HR/FB Ratio: 15%

Power is Tomas’ calling card. Chase Field augments right-handed home runs by 10%, tied for the eighth most favorable park in baseball. For the third time, batted ball data would be wonderful! We don’t know what kind of HR/FB rates he managed in Cuba, as all we could calculate are AB/HR marks, which are far less insightful. Tomas’ career AB/HR mark was about 22 in Cuba. My projected HR/FB rate, combined with his strikeout rate and batted ball distribution result in a projected AB/HR rate of 24. Fair? Unfair? Should we expect more regression against tougher competition? But what about his 2012 and 2013 performances where he posted mid-teens AB/HR marks? So many question and yet answers we won’t learn until at least this season has been completed.

RBI and Runs: 84 and 71

Tomas figures to hit fifth in the D-Backs order, behind a collection of men of which only Paul Goldschmidt should be expected to post a strong OBP. And of course, the first baseman will be knocking in a whole lotta guys himself, along with fellow bopper Mark Trumbo from the cleanup spot. Over the past three seasons, the fifth hole in the National League produced an average of 86 runs batted in, but that number includes every hitter that batted from that spot. Tomas isn’t going to play 162 games and notch 700 plate appearances. But then Tomas is projected to hit for more power than the average NL fifth hole hitter. So based on an RBI per ball in play analysis, 84 is where the math landed.

For his career, Tomas hasn’t shown much of a propensity to take a walk. His career mark is just 6.8%, but he sat above 8% in 2013 and 2014, which is a good sign. Still, I’m projecting just a .322 OBP. It’s why his runs scored projection is mediocre, despite the fact that NL fifth hole batters have averaged 78 runs scored and I project him to score himself on his 23 homers.

SB: 5

Surprisingly, Tomas has shown a willingness to run. One wonders why though considering his poor 50% success rate. But his stolen base attempts, combined with his triples total, does suggest that he’s not a total zero in the speed department. For those curious, I projected three caught stealings to go along with those five successful attempts. I just assume he’ll be a little smarter about running here.

Below is my final projected fantasy batting line, along with the other systems for comparison.

  PA AVG HR RBI R SB K% BABIP
Pod 600 0.271 23 84 71 5 21.0% 0.310
ZiPS 520 0.254 21 60 61 4 18.3% 0.293
ZiPS – 600 PA 600 0.254 24 69 70 5    

I shared my surprise at ZiPS’ low RBI projection yesterday, and our batting average difference is solely due to BABIP, which is a crapshoot, really. He’s currently getting drafted in NFBC leagues at 151 on average, going as early as 82 and as late as 222(!!). I think it’s a reasonable price to pay and if anything, he appears slightly undervalued if you believe my projection. And of course, there is seemingly lots of profit potential, which outweighs the risk at that cost.

Who do you want to see get the Pod Projections treatment next?





Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

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Monkey Halo
9 years ago

How about Dee Gordon? I think that’d be interesting