2015 Bold Pitcher League Leaders

Yesterday, I took our bold predictions one step further by unveiling my bold hitter league leaders. It’s not easy picking a league leader that could both be considered bold, and yet still not outrageous. Today I turn to pitchers, who with two ratio categories, are perhaps a bit easier.

American League

ERA – Carlos Carrasco

Choosing Carrasco probably isn’t so bold around these parts, but after my love affair with him leading up to last season, I had to remind all you lovely readers that I still remain a big fan. He possesses the holy trinity of skills given his ability to make hitters swing and miss, avoid the base on balls and induce lots of ground balls. There’s sure as heck no doubting his stuff.

WHIP – Michael Pineda

Clearly the biggest question here is whether Pineda is going to even pitch enough innings to qualify for the WHIP championship. But since he sports an impressive 1.01 career WHIP over what amounts to a little over a full season’s worth of innings, health is really all that makes this bold. Though his strikeout rate was down last year amid a decline in fastball velocity, he still posted an excellent SwStk% and tons of first pitch strikes. Now even further away from his shoulder surgery, you would think his velocity would improve, putting him in position to boost his strikeout rate and maintain a low WHIP.

Strikeouts – Drew Hutchison

Man, how do I not own him in either of the two leagues I’ve drafted already? If this was 10 years ago when any young pitcher with obvious upside wasn’t slapped with the dreaded sleeper tag, I’d have gotten him cheap in both leagues! Anyhow, what if his second half K% of 26.6% is real? That’s over a batter per inning, perhaps driven by that new slider. The strikeout lead will still be tough though as you can’t automatically count on him for 200+ innings.

Wins – R.A. Dickey

For some reason, I have been significantly more bullish than seemingly everyone the last two seasons on Dickey. I think he’s undervalued because a lot of his value is tied to his innings. He’s more of a compiler, so fantasy owners prefer the younger pitcher with more ERA upside, even if it comes in just 170 innings. We are projecting the Blue Jays to score the second most runs in baseball this year. Combine excellent offensive support with 200+ innings of mid-to-high 3.00 ERA ball, and it’s a recipe for a strong win total.

Saves – Brett Cecil

Is anyone with the closer job locked up really a bold choice to lead in saves? We know how flukey the category is, so it’s just a matter of going with a highly skilled reliever with limited closing experience who could be just as good as any of the established guys. Cecil is officially closing in Toronto and is coming off back-to-back impressive seasons out of the bullpen. Assuming his shoulder holds up, there’s no reason to believe he won’t hold onto the job all year and be quite effective saving games.

National League

ERA – Gerrit Cole

Calm down, I know Cole’s name excites everyone. We know he has the control, he’s got the repertoire, ranking 26th in Arsenal Score (linked above), and has displayed a ground ball tilt. In many ways, he’s very Carrasco-like. Though Cole throws more fastballs, which makes it a bit tougher for him to maintain a high strikeout rate. If he does start throwing his secondary offerings more, his strikeout rate could take another jump up, though his ground ball rate could take a hit.

Oh, and yeah, again, picking anyone but Clayton Kershaw here is pretty silly. But hey, I don’t call this bold for nothin’!

WHIP – Mike Fiers

I sorted my Pod Projections by WHIP and was rather shocked to see Fiers ranked seventh in the National League. Despite failing to average 90 mph with his fastball, he’s been an excellent strikeout pitcher throughout his professional career. He also possesses excellent control. But what’s really driving his low projected WHIP is the potential for a low BABIP. As an extreme fly ball pitcher who induces lots of pop-ups, I’m projecting just a .280 BABIP, which will limit the hits.

Strikeouts – Jacob deGrom

deGrom came out of nowhere last year, but his results, and specifically his strikeout rate, look pretty legit. He flashed an excellent fastball, changeup and curve ball, all of which induced above average rates of swinging strikes. He also threw a decent slider, but the pitch was worse than those other two offerings. If he dials down his slider usage in favor of of that fantastic changeup and also pushes his fastball usage down to the mid-50% range, there’s seemingly some room for additional strikeout rate upside.

Wins – Brandon McCarthy

LOL. I have Kershaw projected for a whopping four more wins than the next pitcher. Is McCarthy the most ridiculous bold prediction yet? He threw 200 innings last year for the first time since…well, ever. His skills surged last season and he posted a 3.00 SIERA. He now returns to the National League and will be backed by both a strong offense and defense. He’s healthy now so it’s silly to automatically assume he’s going to get injured this year. Maybe he lucks out and gets double the run support that Kershaw receives.

Saves – Hector Rondon

The Cubs do have a strong bullpen with several options who could likely do the job if Rondon were to falter. That concern is probably what’s helping keep Rondon’s draft day cost low. But his breakout year was fully supported by his skills and a fastball velocity that jumped two miles per hour. His slider was fantastic last year and if he decides to throw it more, his strikeout rate could increase to well above a batter per inning.