Agenda

1. xBABIP Targets
2. Daily DFS
3. Wednesday Picks
4. Table

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This year doesn’t look like a promising one for the promotion of catching prospects, at least those who could make a positive impression in fantasy baseball leagues. The San Diego Padres’ Austin Hedges may prove to be the exception to make his debut. Andrew Susac could allow the San Francisco Giants move Buster Posey to first base in September if circumstances called for it. Christian Bethancourt may be back with the Atlanta Braves to grab some pine. The Boston Red Sox may even want to give Blake Swihart a taste of The Show in September. But these youngsters probably aren’t ready for the bigs.

I decided to hold off on August catcher tiers until after the non-waiver trade deadline. There shouldn’t be much movement at this position, but a few extra days in the potential aftermath can’t hurt.

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If you were/are depending on Mike Napoli to provide your fantasy team with power, chances are, you’ve been disappointed. As of now, Napoli’s hit 12 home runs in 353 plate appearances, and has an ISO of .172 – the lowest of his career. So, what’s the deal? And is there anything to look forward to down the stretch?

First things first, Napoli’s had some injury woes this season that have undoubtedly led to his meh numbers. He dislocated a finger on his left hand in mid-April; he never went on the DL, but still…that’s a rough injury to play through if you’re having to swing a bat. And then, on May 24, he sprained his right ring finger, which cost him a trip to the DL. Perhaps some fingers are worse than others – Napoli’s teammate, Dustin Pedroia, hasn’t been the same since his thumb injury, even though his power may have already been in decline – but either way, it’s not hard to make a case that injuries have hurt Napoli a little this season, from a playing time perspective, at the very least. Read the rest of this entry »

As it’s the end of July, we might as well take a look at two players who have had big months and recently drawn the eye of deep-league fantasy owners. As usual, these recommendations are best reserved for owners in mono leagues.
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Yesterday, I used Jeff Zimmerman’s recently published xBABIP table to identify five trade targets, with the underlying assumption that they have suffered from poor BABIP fortune, which is likely to reverse over the final two months of the season. Today, I will check in on some hitters whose BABIPs are far above their xBABIP marks and could be in for quite the decline over the rest of the season. As such, they are perhaps strong sell candidates.

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Fifteen years ago today Weird Al’s “Running With Scissors” was released worldwide. Perhaps his best known track from it is The Saga Begins, a tale of the Star Wars prequels. Not related to Running With Scissors, but Al’s latest album titled “Mandatory Fun” hit number one on Billboard’s top albums this past week. The song Word Crimes from it is outstanding.

On today’s agenda:
1. Billy Burns gets the call
2. Another strong outing from Chase Anderson
3. Welcome back, James Paxton
4. The daily five

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There have been a few updates since our last Bullpen Report so as a wise man once said, “Aw, here it goes!”

• Neil Ramirez had been terrific as a setup option for the Cubs (0.96 ERA, 33 Ks in 28 IP) but he was sent down to AAA Iowa over the weekend. The move was clearly not performance related, and it’s unlikely that Ramirez is being stretched into a starter in the minors. Ramirez hasn’t shown any obvious signs of injury (although his velos have been up and down) and the Cubs would like to keep it that way, with Ramirez simply getting some rest. With Ramirez out of the fold temporarily, expect Pedro Strop to be the primary setup man behind Hector Rondon which played out tonight with Strop getting the last two outs of the eighth and Rondon finishing the game for his 13th save of the year.

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Not much injury news over the weekend, sorry.

• A reader asked if Chris Davis may be injured. The short answer for those with little time, probably. Now here is the long answer.

The concern for Davis centers on his low .199 AVG and 17 home runs. He spent spent 15 days on the DL early in the season for a strained abdomen. No other reported news. Before the injury he hit .250/.372/.382. Since returning, he has mainly  seen a huge drop in his AVG, .183/.288/.394. Looking through my injury indicators, his ISO is down from .240 career average to .192. His Contact% is down for 69% to 67%. These values put his HURT value at 155 which is one of the top values among the league regulars. So, yes his is probably still hurt.

The other issue he is dealing with is the shift. In 2013, he had a .425 BABIP with no shift on and a .302 with the shift employed for a difference of .123. So far this season, he is hitting .375 without the shift on and .236 with a shift for a difference of .141. The shift related decline was almost the same overall for each season. This season he is not hitting the ball as hard (probably from the injury), so both BABIP values are down. I would look at Davis as a possible buy low candidate for next season, but expect the batting average to stay low.

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As you read this, I’m knee deep in moving, with a toddler, a pregnant wife, and an intense case of bronchitis. I’m not asking for sympathy!

Until now, Matt Shoemaker has shown us that he’s got a legit curve, splitter, slider combination, but maybe an iffy fastball. He’s not asking your sympathy!

But we all find a way to make due, like I’m writing this as I sweat in bed and the family is taking a load to the new house without me. And it looks like Shoemaker has found a way to make the package work — by throwing the fastball just about as much as any of his other pitches.

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I’ve been a believer in Brian Dozier for quite some time now. Since his breakout around the midway point of last season, Dozier has consistently been one of the most valuable second basemen in fantasy. This year, things only got better, as Dozier started taking more walks and showing much-increased aggressiveness on the basepaths. For a full calendar year, Dozier was an elite fantasy option and five-category contributor, showing no signs of slowing down.

Then July arrived and Dozier came crashing down to earth, with a slash of just .213/.232/.404. The power has still been there, but little else has. There are lots of things to be worried about regarding his performance in July, but none moreso than the figures below:

• April – 19 BB, 26 K
• May – 13 BB, 18 K
• June – 19 BB, 21 K
• July – 1 BB, 21 K

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