Archive for April, 2014

The Daily Grind: 4-5-14 – Presented by FanDuel

Agenda

  1. Grumbling
  2. The Top Four Things to Optimize in DFS
  3. DFS Stacks (Early, Late)
  4. Sunday Pitchers for the Normal Guys
  5. Sur La Table

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Daily Fantasy Strategy — April 5 — for Draftstreet

The first weekend of all day viewing is upon us, and it’s only fitting that we’ll have an opportunity to see multiple aces in action.  It’s also fitting, and quite welcoming, that weather forecasts today look fantastic.  The only game with a better than nominal chance for rain takes place in Houston, which has a retractable roof, so yay. And thankfully to the new television rules, you can tune in to any out of area game today on MLB.tv.

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Roto Riteup — Presented By DraftKings: April 5, 2014

They say money can’t buy happiness and “The Simpsons” once spoke of “The Trouble with Trillions.” The trillion dollar bill episode aired 16 years ago today. My favorite line of “give what back?” still makes me laugh.

On today’s agenda:
1. Dee Gordon’s fast start
2. Welcome back. Matt Kemp
3. A hamstring strain for Mark Teixeira
4. Thoughts on Masahiro Tanaka’s debut
5. The Daily Five

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Risers and Fallers From Week One

They say that patience is a virtue. Besides the ubiquitous “they,” my fellow colleagues here at RotoGraphs have been reminding you of the same. I’m here to remind you of the same. The first five games of the season should influence your expectations for the rest of the season, but only by the very tiniest bit.

With that said, there are very few ways to analyze what we’ve seen to date in a meaningful way. So I’ll pick out a few guys that maybe, actually should be looked at differently.

Alejandro De Aza (up), Dayan Viciedo (down): The story with De Aza was that the White Sox were ready to move on after acquiring Adam Eaton in the offseason. De Aza was considered a very good fourth outfielder behind Eaton, Avisail Garcia and Viciedo. And a crowded first base situation prevents the club from using the spillover at designated hitter.

Thus far, we’ve seen Viciedo spend most of his time on the bench while the hot hitting De Aza continues to take starts. This should resolve into a straight platoon, but De Aza has a defensive advantage in the corners and could hang on as the starter if he continues to mash. More importantly, his at bat projection has probably increased by 200 after this first week. Viciedo’s playing time projection declines proportionally.

Ryan Braun (down): Braun’s thumb issue is back, which could mean less bat control and power. As someone who invested in Braun in two leagues, this is a big bummer.

Billy Hamilton (down): I so very much wanted to gamble on Hamilton this year, but the draft prices were positively ridiculous. I generally saw him go between rounds three and five or for about $20. So far he’s 0-for-12 with a walk and a million strikeouts (six). For someone who was sent home from winter ball because he couldn’t read breaking balls, this is a disturbing start to the season. I’d consider selling.

Casey McGehee (up) and Jeff Baker (up): Look, I don’t like them either, but they’re batting second and cleanup. Considering that they’re free, you could do worse for an injury replacement or spot start.

Carlos Ruiz (up): He’s batting anywhere from second to seventh depending on the day. He also looks like the second half Ruiz, who was eminently rosterable.

Abraham Almonte (up), Corey Hart (down): Almonte is looking like the full time center fielder and leadoff man. Meanwhile, Hart is on part time duty as he continues to recover.

Juan Lagares (up): With Chris Young on the disabled list, Lagares appears to be the everyday center fielder. He also occasionally bats leadoff. Besides those two factors, he’s no great shakes in fantasy.

Marlon Byrd (up): He’s batting cleanup against lefties and fifth against righties. We kind of expected that, but I think his stock dwindled during draft season as the Phillies offense did nothing in Florida.

Justin Smoak (up): Regression looms, but I’m not sure anyone really factored how nice it would be for Smoak to bat with runners on base. The top three of Almonte, Brad Miller, and Robinson Cano is actually pretty formidable. Smoak might have a shot at 100 RBI with full time reps. I know, that sounds crazy.

B.J. Upton (down): We know he’s on a short leash, so a 1-for-12 start to the season with six strikeouts is concerning. I said stay away, but others couldn’t pass up the history of 50 home runs plus steals. It’s too early to panic, but Upton has less wriggle room than most.

Bryce Harper (down), Adam LaRoche (up): We’ll wrap things up with a possible MVP. He’s currently being used out of the six-hole most nights. I don’t know what’s up with that, but it’s happening and it kills his value. Meanwhile, Adam LaRoche is still batting cleanup.


Stream, Stream, Stream: 2x SP 4.7-4.13

Year three of 2xSP rolls on with a pair of lefties and a veteran righty. As a procedural note, the ticker will be back again this year. Any tweaks that you’d like to see? Feel free to share below.

LHP Scott Kazmir – 16.8% ESPN – @MIN, @SEA

Quite frankly it’s completely stunning that Kazmir qualifies for this list at all, but here we are. And the skepticism on Kazmir isn’t totally unfounded; this is a guy who couldn’t find the strike zone with a GPS unit for three full seasons, and before that was still only marginal in that department. But for my fantasy dollars, he is who he was in Cleveland last year until he proves he isn’t. The A’s know pitching, and Kaz was solid the first time out against the Indians. With these two matchups this week, I think it’d be foolish not to take a look at the lefty. Read the rest of this entry »


Third Base Waiver Wire: Cody Asche and Matt Dominguez

It’s probably a little early to be digging deep anywhere and we haven’t had a rash of injuries strike the hot corner the way starting pitching was decimated recently. Still, you might be relying on a value play like Will Middlebrooks, Mike Moustakas, Chase Headley, or David Freese, all of whom have yet to do anything at all. Yeah, small sample size and all that, but it’s easy to panic when you’re not trotting superstars out there every day. Keeping an eye on plan C when plan B isn’t panning out isn’t a horrible idea — and a couple of third basemen are readily available in Cody Asche and Matt Dominguez.

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The Daily Grind: 4-4-14 – Presented by FanDuel

Agenda

  1. A Tip About Stacking
  2. DFS Stacks
  3. Traditional Fantasy Picks
  4. Table Time

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Three Observations: Poor Offense, Losers, Gainers

With most teams only through their opening series, we’re not in any position to be making wide-sweeping arguments about the 2014 season. And just like fans across the country overvalue the first week of the season, many fantasy owners place too much stock in their early-season performance. Sure, it counts, but it’s tough to stay patient when your team is stuck in the cellar after the first few games, especially if you’re a Cliff Lee owner and saw him implode on Opening Day or if you bought into the Khris Davis hype and have yet t0 see him get on base in 2014.

But while we’re unable to say much about the season as a whole, I have three observations about the first handful of games that hopefully provide a kernel of insight.

(1) Do not fret about early-season offensive woes. You’re not alone.

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Daily Fantasy Strategy — April 4 — For Draftstreet

So, Wednesday didn’t quite go as planned, but it was still a moderately successful day. I took a small shot at Aaron Harang, and he subsequently threw 6.2 innings of shutout baseball. I also recommended two Tigers – Miguel Cabrera and Ian Kinsler – because Jason Vargas usually fairs poorly against righties. Kinsler performed well, but other than his home run Vargas outperformed my expectations. Baseball is as unpredictable as ever and I, for one, am glad to see its wonky ways are back in my life.

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Getting the Most Out of Your Spreadsheets

There is a lot of data in baseball. Last season, there were 184,872 plate appearances. Each one of those plate appearances was made up of as many as 16 pitches. Add to that everything that happens once a ball is put in play, from batted ball speeds and locations to baserunner and fielder movements, and all the different splits you can dream up of seasonal data. It can quickly overwhelm. That is why databases are critical for rigorous research, especially if you want to study trends across multiple seasons or even decades.

But sometimes, a spreadsheet is enough. Perhaps you lack the SQL expertise to quickly solve a problem that you could solve quickly in Excel. Perhaps you lack the access (wink wink) to a database of baseball statistics, and it simply isn’t worth your time to create that infrastructure when there are ready alternatives. Whatever the case, the reality is that modern spreadsheets provide the tools you need to do some sophisticated number-crunching as long as performance is not the bottleneck of the task at hand. And as long as you’re willing to get a bit creative with the built-in functions.

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