Daily Fantasy Strategy — April 4 — For Draftstreet

So, Wednesday didn’t quite go as planned, but it was still a moderately successful day. I took a small shot at Aaron Harang, and he subsequently threw 6.2 innings of shutout baseball. I also recommended two Tigers – Miguel Cabrera and Ian Kinsler – because Jason Vargas usually fairs poorly against righties. Kinsler performed well, but other than his home run Vargas outperformed my expectations. Baseball is as unpredictable as ever and I, for one, am glad to see its wonky ways are back in my life.

The runs that I expected to come on Wednesday, simply did not – at least in the games in which I assumed they would. On Monday there were 13 games, pitched mostly by each team’s respective number one guy, and 116 runs were scored. Tuesday only saw 16 teams – for a total of 8 games – suit up, and 58 runs were scored. And, finally, on Wednesday there was a whopping 16 games, thanks to Oakland and Cleveland’s doubleheader, yet only 95 runs were scored. A weird day, indeed. Onward and upward, as they say.

I decided to include asterisks on certain pitchers in the table above. I decided that was best, because as I alluded to on Wednesday, there just simply isn’t a ton of data on a few of the pitchers that are being listed. And Erik Johnson’s .434 wOBA against left handed batters is awful, but it only encompasses five starts made as a September call up, so it doesn’t mean quite as much as Joe Saunders’ .388 mark against right handed batters, because the latter number comes from a much larger sample.

At least four pitchers are prime stacking candidates today: the aforementioned Saunders, Roberto Hernandez, Randall Delgado, and Juan Nicasio. And best of all, weather doesn’t appear to be a factor in any of these particular match-ups, unless you include the windy tendencies of Wrigley Field.

The Daily Five

Jose Abreu – $6,919

Small sample size caveats aside, Abreu has looked awesome. It seems like every plate appearance I’ve watched of Abreu’s has either ended in a walk or hard contact. And Guthrie doesn’t miss many barrels, so I’m expecting a continuation.

Aaron Hill – $5,921

Hill doesn’t have the platoon advantage, but Nicasio doesn’t exactly strike fear into the hearts of right handed batters. Oh, and their matchup happens at Coors Field.

Nate Schierholtz – $5,868

Schierholtz sports a rather drastic platoon split, and so does the pitcher opposing him.

Anthony Rizzo – $6,421

If Roberto Hernandez is perfect for the man above, he might be an even better matchup for Mr. Rizzo. Rizzo’s struggles with same side pitching shouldn’t come into play until late in the game today, and by then, the damage will have likely been done.

Shelby Miller – $17,288

Miller is the fifth most expensive pitcher today, but I’m willing to pay is price due to the matchup. The Pirates don’t have much left handed thump, except for Pedro Alvarez, which happens to be Miller’s kryptonite.

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