Aroldis Chapman is best known for throwing ridiculously hard. Last season, he averaged 99 mph with his fastball according to BrooksBaseball.net, and he frequently reaches over 100 mph. While 2013 was a lesson in regression for Chapman and his fantasy owners, he still struck out over 40 percent of batters faced, saved 38 games, and posted a 2.54 ERA. Even if that isn’t as good as his superlative 2012, nobody is going to complain about $13 of value from a reliever.

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There’s been some talk about the ideal auction budget mix on twitter recently. Perhaps, if you click this link, you can see some of the conversation between Chris Liss, Mike Gianella, Steve Gardner, Peter Kreutzer, and Jeff Erickson upon which I was snooping. It’s a fairly complicated conversation, and far-reaching. Let’s jump in.

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Before the 2013 season, one of my 10 Bold Fantasy Predictions was that Sergio Santos would finish the season with more saves than Casey Janssen in the Toronto Blue Jays bullpen.

The final tally was razor-close, a 34-1 advantage for Janssen, with the Californian posting his third straight season with an ERA of 2.56 or lower. It was a very unsuccessful prediction.

But heading into 2014, I find myself wanting to double down on it and predict the former Blue Jays shortstop prospect to out-save the UCLA alum, even though the latter ranked 14th in relief pitcher value this season while the former didn’t crack the top-150. Am I just being really stubborn?
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By what we’ve learned over the last several year, we know that the closer’s role tends to be an extremely volatile position. Mental breakdowns, mechanical issues, whatever the case may be, we’ve seen numerous guys move in and out of the job on a variety of teams. However, there have also been some stalwarts; guys with strong job security that give you little reason to be concerned. More often than not, they notch the save and if they struggle, you never worry that they’re going to lose their job. Some of them are no-brainers, like what Mariano Rivera was. But others we’ve seen, no matter how poor they are pitching or how frail they may be (I’m looking at you Huston Street and Fernando Rodney), they still seem to stay right where they are. Maybe they lose an opportunity here and there, but if they’re healthy, they’ve always seemed to slide back into the job. So why, after 101 saves in the past two season….yes, that’s right, 101…does Jim Johnson get no love? Read the rest of this entry »

After the contract with Grant Balfour to be Jim Johnson’s replacement as the Orioles closer fell apart, Tommy Hunter stands out as the most obvious candidate to take over the job. The team is apparently no longer pursuing a free agent replacement, which means that Hunter should be given the first opportunity. So then the question becomes, can he hold onto the job all year?

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Last week, we spent some time talking about what goes into price expectations in an Ottoneu league. The take away point is simple: in Ottoneu leagues, one person’s trash is another person’s treasure.

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• In the comments from last week’s MASH Report, dls asked:

Any info on [Yasmani] Grandal (in particular), and catchers (in general), returning from knee injuries?

First, Grandal will start the season on the DL. Second, here is how the nine catchers in my database with major knee issues performed after the injury.  The values are from the the season before the injury to the season after the injury. Additionally, I included the outfield values I found last week.

The two sets of values are similar and it looks like Grandal should see a drop in production once he returns.

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Steve Cishek was a top-ten reliever this year. Steve Cishek! He’s supposed to be selling seashells by the sea shore, and here he is providing valuable stats for a low cost. Provided what we know about relievers on bad teams, why were fantasy owners nervous about Cishek going into the season? And did the last 70 innings solve those problems? If so, why not take Steve Cishek as a top-tenner this year?

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The Alex Rodriguez news will send a lot of fantasy owners scrambling for a new 3B, but it has other implications on the Yankees infield that may present an opportunity for savvy fantasy owners.

Brad Johnson looked at what the A-Rod suspension means for the Yankees yesterday. Not long thereafter, New York added Scott Sizemore and Ken Rosenthal reported that the Yanks are unlikely to add another MLB IF, which means the in-house options Johnson considered – along with Sizemore – are basically the only options in the Bronx.

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We’re all well aware that Craig Kimbrel is really good. But allow me to give you a little refresher on his greatness.

He’s led all relievers on ESPN’s player rater in two of the last three years and was second in the year he didn’t top the list. Among qualified relievers in those three years he ranks second in ERA, first in xFIP and SIERA, first in saves, and first in strikeout rate. His strikeout rate is so elite that he also leads in K%-BB% despite having a walk rate that is only slightly above average. He’s a stud.

But is he good enough to transcend the “don’t pay for saves” mantra that was started by Matthew Berry and piggybacked on by countless fantasy writers? Read the rest of this entry »