Will Venable broke out a bit in 2013, hitting a career high 22 homeruns while also stealing over 20 bases for the fourth consecutive season. His power/speed combo is bound to garner attention going into 2014 fantasy drafts and auctions. With a middling batting average—his .268 mark in 2013 was also a career high—and while playing for a team that is likely to keep both his Run and RBI totals in the 50-60 range, much of Venable’s allure will be tied up in whether owners think he’ll continue to be a 20/20 player going forward.

His stolen base potential is a matter for a different day (and probably a different person); instead I’ve compiled some information to try to determine from whence Venable’s 2013 power surge came, and whether we can expect it to continue.

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It’s no secret that Petco Park is a pitcher’s park. But for the sake of putting a face with a name, or rather some numbers with a narrative, I’ll point out that according to our basic park factors Petco was tied for the second most pitcher-friendly park last year. And prior to last year Petco had the lowest basic park factor in the league for nine straight seasons after opening in 2004.

Last summer, Bradley Woodrum discussed the changes made to Petco prior to the 2013 season and how they are affecting offense in the park. Offense is on the rise to some degree and that’s consistent with Petco not being the most pitcher-friendly park in the league last year for the first time in its existence. But it’s hard to say exactly how much the dimensions are bolstering offensive production. What we can say with some certainty is that even though it may not be the most pitcher-friendly park, it’s still safely pitcher-friendly.

Because of the nature of the park, pitchers for the Padres are always interesting to fantasy owners. So who is in line to potentially get the Petco bump this year? Below is a chart showing the five San Diego starters projected to throw the most innings along with their Steamer projections. Read the rest of this entry »

No one will replace Mariano Rivera. In 2009, the top-10 relievers in WAR with a minimum of 20 saves were Jonathan Broxton, Andrew Bailey, Brian Wilson, Jonathan Papelbon, Rivera, Joe Nathan, Rafael Soriano, Heath Bell, David Aardsma, and Joakim Soria. In 2013, only Nathan of those players rejoined Rivera in the top-10. Six others no longer close. And that is just since 2009. Rivera was already an established, consistent closer a decade before.

That unprecedented track record of consistent effectiveness makes big shoes for an heir to fill. David Robertson has already suffered from those unreasonable expectations. After taking over for Rivera following his season-ending knee injury in 2012, Robertson’s quick blown save started the discussion of his lack of a closer mentality. Within the week, Robertson strained an oblique muscle, and he never had another chance to close as veteran Rafael Soriano took the job and ran with it.

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Based strictly on run prevention, the Giants starting rotation had consistently been one of the best staffs in baseball. Until 2013. Rather than once again rank in the top 10 in ERA, the collective group of starters posted a mark that ranked just 24th. Their disappointing performance could be illustrated by this sexy graph:

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About 24 hours ago, plus or minus zero minutes, I posted on the topic of elite relievers and when such players should be purchased in a draft. I recommend skimming that first as some of the points are pertinent to this article.

That piece was designed to offer some general tools and thoughts for those in relatively standard leagues. However, FanGraphs offers a custom fantasy game called Ottoneu – perhaps you have heard of it. Ottoneu offers four scoring systems, two of which are scored by points. This article is about the value of elite relievers in those points formats.

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Writer’s Note: Perkins ranked 8th on Zach Sanders’ 2013 closer rankings.

Glen Perkins’ rebirth as a pitcher has been nothing short of amazing. Perkins’ days as a starter were nothing to write home about, even when his home isn’t more than about a half hour drive from Target Field.

There’s a reason Perkins’ career K/9 rate is still under 7 — 6.85 to be precise — despite three consecutive years of 9.5-plus K/9. As a starter, Perkins was a bulldog who liked to work inside with a fastball that routinely checked in somewhere between 89-91, sometimes reaching 92 on average. Armed with that, a changeup, and a curve (and later a slider in lieu of the curve), Perkins compiled a 19-12 career record with a 4.81 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and a Blackburn-esque 4.7 K/9. Read the rest of this entry »

This must feel like déjà vu all over again for Joakim Soria. Back in April of 2003, Soria had his first Tommy John surgery and didn’t pitch for two full seasons. He scratched and clawed his way back to form and by the end of 2007, he was one of the better closers in baseball. Fast forward to 2012, he had his second Tommy John in March and scratched and clawed his way back to form, actually appearing in 26 games in 2013, although he played second fiddle to Joe Nathan at the back of the bullpen.

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One relief pitcher trait I like to have on hand during draft season is how much of a split has a pitcher displayed over his career against right- and left-handed hitters. Most teams don’t want their closer to have a large split because with all hands on deck in the ninth, the opposing manager will use up all his available platoon options. The reason a pitcher may or may not have a split may be many, but truthfully I don’t have time to evaluate each relief pitcher in detail (and still stay married) so I use this nice little cheat sheet.

I examined which pitchers have historically small or large handedness splits and how much to take them into account when valuing the relief pitcher for a closer’s role.

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In the summer of 2009, Brandon Kintzler wasn’t a highly-touted prospect cruising through the Milwaukee Brewers’ farm system. He was just another former 40th-round pick, toiling through his third-consecutive season in the independent leagues and trying to catch the eye of any professional organization.

The Brewers fortuitously had a scout at the American Association’s All-Star Game in Grand Prairie, Texas, where they saw Kintzler pitch two scoreless innings for the North Division in which he struck out three and walked no one. The two sides quickly agreed on a contract, and just one season later at age-25, the right-hander made his major-league debut against the Chicago Cubs.

Although he began to turn heads in Milwaukee during the 2011 season, a season-ending arm injury set him back once again. Rehab proved difficult. He continued to feel discomfort in his elbow in spring training the following year, but all nerve tests and MRIs repeatedly came back clean showing no issues. Doctors eventually diagnosed him with a strained forearm. It took the majority of the season for him to regain his arm strength, but when he did, he worked his way back to the majors and appeared in 14 games in September and October.

The 2013 season found Kintzler completely healthy for the first time in almost two years, and he took full advantage. He posted a 2.54 FIP in 77.0 innings and eventually wiggled his way into the primary set-up role by the end of the campaign. The strikeout numbers are not what fantasy owners would prefer, as he only managed a 6.78 K/9 strikeout rate, but he induced a myriad of ground balls, kept the baseball in the ballpark and issued very few free passes. That resulted in a supremely effective, if unspectacular, season.

While fellow right-hander Jim Henderson possesses a firm grip on the closer’s role in Milwaukee, Kintzler is primed for a full season of high-leverage usage. He should handle the eighth inning for manager Ron Roenicke, and I’m expecting another season of significant success. It may even be fantasy-relevant success, too.

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Both Tanner Scheppers and Drew Smyly have a chance to be starting pitchers in 2014. Scheppers has a shot at the rotation because Derek Holland is out until the midway point after injuring his knee while supposedly playing with his dog. And Smyly is even more likely to make the Detroit rotation because the Tigers inexplicably traded Doug Fister for some questionable young pieces.

They both pitched exclusively as relievers last season and each threw about 76 innings. Scheppers has never started at the major league level and only started eight games in the minor leagues. Smyly pitched exclusively as a starter in the minor leagues, and his first 16 major league appearances in 2012 were as a starter. So Smyly has more experience as a starter and a higher likelihood of actually being in the rotation, but because I’d like this post to easily surpass 500 words and because of the alliterative title they’re last names allowed me to use, let’s consider their viability as starters together. Read the rest of this entry »