2014 Pod’s Picks: Starting Pitcher
Today marks the end of the 2014 Pod’s Pick series and we finish off with my favorite position, starting pitcher. This is where we find the most divergent opinions as an extra projected win or two or a slightly higher expected strikeout rate is enough to push a player up a whole bunch of spots in the rankings.
The starting pitcher edition of Pod’s Picks may help you find value or learn who to avoid at their current going rates. The bullish section will only include players from my top 78 (which assumes 6 1/2 starting pitchers active per team with 2 1/2 closers), while the bearish group will only include those whose RotoGraphs consensus is in the top 78.
Bullish
My Rank: 19 | Consensus: 50
Wow, not who I expected to appear on the top of my undervalued list. He is perpetually undervalued though, which is strange because I have never owned him. He has posted an ERA below 3.40 for four straight seasons, while maintaining a WHIP in the 1.15 to 1.20 range throughout his entire career. He has been as consistent as it comes. I assume the hang up is his age. He’ll be 39 this year and one would expect Kuroda to start showing some chinks in the armor. But it hasn’t happened yet and there’s nothing in his skills to suggest the decline is imminent.
My Rank: 18 | Consensus: 48
Nobody expected the 2012 NL Cy Young award winner to repeat his masterful performance, especially after being traded into the American League to pitch in a tough division and a hitter friendly home ballpark. But Dickey was still pretty disappointing. The good news is that it seems as if minor injuries that led to a decline in knuckleball velocity were to blame, but that velocity rose by the end of the year. His overall results and strikeout rate were much improved over that second half, coinciding with the velocity spike. If health issues don’t get in the way again, then he should enjoy a nice rebound. Also propping up his ranking is the fact that he pitches a ton of innings. That will boost his win and strikeout totals.
…skipping some uninteresting names that despite my apparent optimistic rankings, I don’t care for (Ricky Nolasco, My Rank: 59, Consensus: 87; Wei-Yin Chen, My Rank: 77, Consensus: 105)…
My Rank: 43 | Consensus: 70
Ummm what? First off, remember that this ranking was before the move to Atlanta. That said, I had figured a major regression into the 3.80 ERA range for Santana and yet still calculated a value that resulted in a ranking of 43. So, I have no idea how much more pessimistic the rest of the rankers were. The move to Atlanta is a boon for his fantasy value. Compared to my previous projection, his strikeout rate rises, bringing down his ERA and WHIP. While it will still be difficult for him to repeat his bounce back 2013 performance, the odds became greater now that he resides in the National League.
My Rank: 34 | Consensus: 55
I will never quit! At the very least, Lincecum is going to provide a boat load of strikeouts. Yes, Lincecum’s velocity came crashing down in 2012 and hasn’t recovered. His strikeout rate has declined in almost a straight line since 2009. But, he still possesses pretty solid skills. In these last two seasons, he has been done in by an inflated HR/FB rate and a low LOB%. Prior to 2012, he never had issues with allowing so many fly balls to leave the yard or stranding runners. Now suddenly he does? Bad luck could last for two years. I’m betting it’s just that.
My Rank: 54 | Consensus: 75
I’m a fan of Kazmir 2.0. I’m now an even bigger fan after his move to Oakland. Kazmir’s velocity has returned and this time, his control is much improved. A .324 BABIP hid fantastic skills, but a quick glance at his 3.38 SIERA tells you how well he actually pitched. He’s nearly a lock to produce a nice profit in all league formats.
Bearish
Technically Kevin Gausman would be atop the bearish list, but his ranking is pretty irrelevant. It’s all dependent on if he makes the rotation (unlikely) and when he eventually would debut this year. For the record, I’m bullish on his performance, but uncertain how many innings he will pitch in the Majors.
My Rank: 91 | Consensus: 64
Now here’s one that doesn’t surprise me. Colon is going to be 41 (!!!) this year, doesn’t strike anyone out, and posted an ERA about a full run and a half below his SIERA. He’s not going to have that kind of HR/FB rate and LOB% luck again, so without any strikeout cushion, his value could plummet.
My Rank: 53 | Consensus: 28
I’m not not a fan, but I am a fan of luck neutralization. I think Teheran’s breakout was completely legit, as in, yeah, he’s a good pitcher now. But, he ain’t stranding 81% of base runners again. And since he posted his highest strikeout rate since 2010, you gotta figure some regression there. Oh, and it’s hard to maintain a walk rate under 6.0%. Bump that up as well. With all this regression, you’re suddenly left with a solid, albeit unspectacular pitcher who is very likely to be overvalued at drafts and auctions.
My Rank: 64 | Consensus: 41
🙁 Andrew, I truly apologize for breaking up with you. I’ll let David Wiers have you all for himself. If you have forgotten exactly how much of a fan I was heading into the 2013 season, this post sums it up for you. To say that an 18.1% strikeout rate was a disappointment is an understatement. I am projecting some sort of a strikeout rebound, but unfortunately it’s offset by a regression in his control. Pitching in front of a weak Padres offense isn’t going to help him any in the wins category either. If he could rediscover the strikeout stuff I thought he was in possession of entering last year, he absolutely has the chance to be a top 40 pitcher. But I can’t project him based on hope and wishes.
My Rank: 79 | Consensus: 58
I’m not really sure how this happened. I kinda like Nova this year, but I guess not as much as the other three musketeers. Of the four projection systems, my ERA projection is the second lowest. Perhaps it’s an innings thing (I’m projecting 170) or maybe it’s because I’m expecting a bit of strikeout rate regression.
My Rank: 67 | Consensus: 47
Well daaaaamn, how did this happen? I was driving the Haren train all of last year and figured for sure he’d be significantly undervalued this year. I am projecting slightly worse skills compared to last year and the transition to a fly ball pitcher is not a good thing. But I do expect his ERA to dip below 4.00. I just worry about his pitch mix as everything is in the 83 to 89 mph range and is some variation of the fastball.
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
Is it fair to use Teheran’s walk rate against him though? Command has always been a strength of his so I don’t think we can write off regression in this particular statistic as a near certainty.
Teheran is a super-interesting case for projecting purposes, especially if you look at his splits.
The first two months of the season he was a low-K guy with a high GB%, with April just being awful all around.
Then from June on, he started striking out a bunch more guys and switched to being a fly-ball pitcher. I wish I could check pitch usage splits to see what he changed in his repertoire.
I don’t know how much all that should go into projections, but if I were trying to improve upon automated projection systems, it seems like the June-September pitching approach should be overweighted.
I’m not sure it’s fair to think we know what Teheran is as a pitcher at this point. Before, last season, he had exactly 4 starts in the majors, and by all accounts 2012 was a lost year due to the Braves tinkering with mechanics. Saying he had his highest K rate since 2010 is fine, but he was 19 then and pitching in A and AA, so it might not be the fairest metric. I think last year, particularly after his first 3 starts, things “clicked” for him and he figured out how to pitch. All that is to say I expect him to be a lot closer to top 25 than top 50.
Watching him pitch yesterday against the Yankees…absolutely nasty. Painting corners with 95mph+ and he showed a lot more of that curveball which looked excellent. If the over/under on him is a #25 ranking, I’ll take the under (better than)
This +1. There has to be a meeting of statistical analysis and subject analysis. That’s not say you throw the stats out, but there is a time when you say, he this guy has developed a different skillset, we need to view him accordingly.
I literally feel the exact opposite of this column.
C’mon. Of all phrases to use in the Kuroda part you use “chinks in the armor.” Funny af though
At least it wasn’t in the headline like the ESPN Jeremy Lin story. I was glad Pod used the phrase here because it reminded me of what a terrible network ESPN is (excluding Buster Olney, Jayson Stark and the Mikes).
Um, Kuroda is Japanese, idiots.
I’m pretty certain that the term “chink” has been used to describe people of all sorts of Asian descent. People who use terms like that don’t usually feel compelled to check the accuracy of their slurs.
Pretty strong criticism of Mike without having any clue.
Jeez I wasn’t criticizing Mike. All I was doing was recalling the Jeremy Lin ESPN headline and then I got called an idiot. When I talk about “people” using terms like that, I was referring to people using the racial slur, not a phrase like “chink in the armor”. I had no idea my comment would be interpreted as an accusation about Mike’s racial beliefs, whatever those may be.
I’m pretty certain that the term “chink” has been used to describe people of all sorts of Asian descent. People who use terms like that don’t usually feel compelled to check the accuracy of their slurs.
If you look it up, you will find that you are wrong.
Wow this is insane. I’m not disputing the origin of the term. I’m still pretty sure it’s been used to describe people who, gasp, may not be of Chinese descent. I don’t think a person who describes other people as chinks does a background check every time to make sure he uses the right slur.
Are you for real dude? Look at the word “chink”. Does it remind you of anything???
Get a clue, guy.
Jesus Christ
Don’t feed the troll, drew.
Dude, get a clue on interpreting context. There was no malicious intent on his part.
this is very, very low on a list of things you should care about
What’s funny is I realized the potential pun after actually typing the phrase and then decided to just leave it in there.
Second half, 2013:
Cashner: 20.8% K, 6.5% BB, 50.3% GB, 3.45 SIERA, 65.7% f-strike, 79.4% contact
Dickey: 21.5% K, 6.1% BB, 38.5%, 3.65 SIERA, 65.4% f-strike, 80.6% contact
Cashner’s improvement in the second half also coincided with a velocity increase, adding about 1 MPH to each of his 4-seam and 2-seam fastballs, as well as his slider. Additionally, had his BABIP been higher than .234, his k/9 would have been closer to 8 than 7.
Caveats aplenty with projecting solely off of 75 IP of a half season, but the correlation between Cashner’s velocity and ability to strike guys out seems pretty strong.
Cashner wasn’t throwing the slider until early June and that when the improvement dramatically kicked in. K rate wasn’t a great spike initially but improved to almost 8/9 in the final 2 month.
I am a little disappointed Pod didn’t mention this, being that he is all over the numbers all the time.
Love your role in the Round table podcast
I projected somewhat of a rebound in Cashner’s strikeout rate, but nowhere near what I expected it to be in 2013. What also hurts him is only 180 IP, plus playing on a weak Padres offense.
He threw 175 innings last season, and his velocity increased and command improved as the season went on; is there a source from the Padres saying he’ll be limited to 180 innings this season?
Nope, but generally when it comes to innings pitched, projection systems, including my manual ones, are rather conservative. If you’ve never thrown a number of innings, you gotta prove to me you could before I project it. Cashner has never thrown close to the 175 innings he threw last year and only threw about 70 in 2012. Steamer and Fans are expecting about 190 and change, which would bump his value up by a buck or so and maybe a couple of ranks.
Totally fair. By the by, are your rankings for head to head or roto? I view health/playing time risks more positively in roto than I do head to head. For instance, Danny Salazar is ranked like 95th on Yahoo, and in a head to head league that is just crackers. In a roto league that isn’t insane (though it eliminates most, if not all, of his profit potential).
The rankings were based on the settings in the consensus ranking posts. 12-team 5×5 roto with standard rosters, except 1 catcher instead of 2.
Noted!
Since this is Rotographs, I’ll go straight to fantasy value vs. real value — from a fantasy perspective, even if Dickey repeats his bad 2013, its still actually pretty good. For 2013, he was top 30 in points leagues, and top 50 in roto. If you look just at his Post-ASB stats, he’s top 20 in points and top 30 in roto. So all-in-all, I think its a good gamble to make – best case you get a #1 starter value, worst case you get a ton of innings, decent K/9 & WHIP.
I get that Teheran’s strand rate was high, but you clearly have never seen his pick-off move.
I hit the “thumbs up” button by Drewcorb’s comment when I meant to hit the “thumb’s down” and apparently the mechanism doesn’t allow me to change my vote so I’ve got to add this: Drewcorb is either a very sloppy commentator who doesn’t mind making unsubstantiated character attacks or he is purposeful and suggesting (without proof) that Podhorzer is racist. Either position is despicable. Things we should have learned in kindergarten: don’t be sloppy when you are casting aspersions or bother with proof when you do.
“Drewcorb is either a very sloppy commentator who doesn’t mind making unsubstantiated character attacks or he is purposeful and suggesting (without proof) that Podhorzer is racist.”
Or Drewcorb’s comment was completely misinterpreted. I’ll admit to being a sloppy commentator, but I do mind making unsubstantiated character attacks, so your assertion above is completely wrong.
I said it above, but I had no idea my comment would be interpreted as calling Mike a racist. I was simply saying that I don’t think pmacho is an idiot for thinking twice about the phrase “chink in the armor” there. I was in no way referring to Mike.
Can we just agree there were a lot of misunderstandings, none of us are racists, and that Fangraphs is way better than ESPN?
I just found this site yesterday and registered today. I have been looking for something like this for years!
Now, if people are going to be way, way, way over-sensitive about using the word “chink” (out of context nonetheless) maybe I should move on. I come here to get away from pc/political/intolerant of intolerance bs. This is baseball people!
Do people on this site call them the Cleveland Native Americans? (Oh boy,I did it now!!!!)Sheesh, I just cant get away from this crap.
Anyways, keep up the great articles and (usually) knowledgeable comments. I hope I can contribute
I’m not high on Kuroda at all this year. He really fell apart from August on, is 39 and has never been a huge strikeout guy. The fact that Yankees bullpen is iffy could hurt his win total. The days of Rivera and two really good setup men shortening games might be over. Top 20 just seems absurdly high.
He did not fall apart in August. He posted an xFIP of 3.39 that month and in Sept, a perfectly respectable xFIP of 3.82. Looking at ERA over such small innings totals is meaningless. A high BABIP killed him those months simply as his luck neutralized from the good luck he enjoyed earlier in the season.
Even still, 20 guys I’d absolutely rather have off the top of my head: Kershaw, Greinke, Bumgarner, Cain, Wainwright, Bailey, Latos (barring a setback will be ready opening day) Strasburg, Zimmermann, Gonzalez, Fernandez, Lee, Felix, Darvish, Sale, Verlander, Scherzer, Sanchez, Shields, Price
Thar’s not even including guys like Hamels and Minor who might not miss more than a start or two.
Then after that there is a second tier of guys like Ryu, Dickey, Cobb, Burnett, Masterson, Teheran, Tanaka and Sabathia who I’d probably take over him.
Ranking him #19 suggest that he’s better bet than at least two of pitchers in that first tier and every one of the guys in that second tier. I just don’t see it.
Seems sily to list all the pitchers you like when the list is here! Pod like Dickey and Kuroda more than Shields, Bailey, and Anibal. It’s not crazy! There is nobody in your second tier that has been as reliable or consistent as Kuroda and nobody who has dominated a season within 2 years like Dickey.
Plus, rethink what you THINK you know about the Yankees bullpen! Just because you haven’t heard their names in the news doesn’t mean they won’t hold games!
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/fangraphs-consensus-rankings-spreadsheet-with-projection-system-averages/
What you wrote, Drewcorb, was this: “People who use terms like that don’t usually feel compelled to check the accuracy of their slurs.”
Since Podhorzer used the term in question he is, by your reckoning, somebody who uses slurs.
I intuited that maybe that wasn’t quite what you meant–although it is quite clearly what you wrote. So I asserted that you were either sloppy in what you wrote or purposefully charging Podhorzer with making a racial slur.
You replied that you were sloppy.
Thank you for your honesty. But your honesty also means my assertion wasn’t “completely false,” so you should not have added that.
Thank you.
When I said “the term”, I was referring to the slang racial slur “chink”, not the noun referring to a narrow opening or crack. That’s why I was taken aback when people thought I meant Mike, but I can see why it could be interpreted that way. If I knew how that comment was going to be viewed, I absolutely would have given it more than just a passing thought before submitting it.
I read your comment as giving two possibilities, shown below. I was either:
1. a very sloppy commentator who doesn’t mind making unsubstantiated character attacks or
2. purposeful and suggesting (without proof) that Podhorzer is racist
You’re right, I could have given you partial credit, but in my opinion I didn’t fit either category so that’s why I thought the statement was completely false. Also my emotions were running a little high when I saw how many people thought I was calling Mike a racist.
Either way, I’d say we’ve beaten this dead horse. Hopefully you don’t feel too bad about accidentally upvoting my comment anymore. You merely endorsed a poorly written comment, as opposed to one that was meant to call the author a racist.
I don’t think Teheran’s K or walk rate was an aberration. He is only 23 this year and is growing into being another great ATL pitcher. In AAA he was a pretty good strikeout pitcher. (275ip 219k at 20/21yrs old*) In the majors his walk amount did decrease some, but not that he ever was wild.
If you don’t remember spring training last year (yes, I know it’s only ST) he led all pitchers with 35k in 26ip. That was a major reason why a took a flyer on him in the late rounds. I can’t remember any other pitcher having that manys K’s in SP before.(I’m thinking Edison Volquez in 08, and he had a great rookie campaign)
His all around stats have looked good so far this spring. There must be something in the water over in Hotlanta that must produce good/great arms. I think his numbers will be almost the same as last year, and I find nothing in his background to predict a regression.
* http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=tehera001jul
PodMeister, When I sit back and think about your Lincecum verbage it makes me think pitch location. Just what he worked on with Tim Hudson this off-season.
Hmmm……. Is there anything on Fangraphs(or anywhere) in regards to pitch location?
The PitchF/X section should give you heat maps or pitch location or something. If not, BrooksBaseball should.
Mr. Pod,
Would you prefer Pineda or Kazmir for this season? I’m leaning Kaz. Thanks! Love the work.
Me
Kazmir is an easy choice. Pineda won’t have the innings, plus his velocity scares the heck out of me, spring dominance be damned.
Awesome! If he wins me a championship I shall rename my team The Pod People.