2014 AL Starting Pitcher Tier Rankings: May
It’s updated tier week! As usual, these rankings represent my fantasy value expectations over the rest of the season. While I am not completely ignoring what has happened so far, its effect on my rankings is to merely expand the body of work by a pitcher from which to analyze. Unless there is a dramatic change in underlying skills that looks sustainable or an injury, there shouldn’t be a whole lot of movement after just 30 to 40 innings pitched.
While the preseason tier rankings were technically in descending order of my projected value, most pitchers within a tier are so close to each other that you could basically consider them interchangeable. An extra win, an additional 10 strikeouts, a .290 BABIP versus .295 BABIP are all pretty much random, but can shift a pitcher’s value by a couple of bucks. I didn’t bother moving players around within a tier, which is something I used to do, but provides little incremental value.
Tom Haverford
Yu Darvish
Justin Verlander
Felix Hernandez
Chris Sale
Max Scherzer
David Price
Masahiro Tanaka
Darvish’s strikeout rate is down, but he’s offset the fewer punchouts by reducing his walk rate. Unfortunately, his strike percentage is down, so the improved control looks like a fluke. He has also suddenly become an extreme fly ball pitcher. There’s no obvious explanation for what’s afflicting him, so this could all just be a small sample mirage. He sticks in the top tier for obvious reasons, but be warned that there are a number of red flags here.
If Darvish looks a bit worrisome, Justin Verlander looks downright scary. His skills have taken a nosedive, but thanks to just one home run allowed in 40 innings, you would think it was business as usual. Driving the decline in strikeout rate is yet another drop in his average fastball velocity. All this adds up to a SIERA well above 4.00, which is the first time it has sat above that plateau since 2008. It’s too soon to drop him from this tier, but the alarm bells are ringing.
Felix Hernandez just keeps sailing along and looks like the safest option in this tier. If only he had a more powerful offense backing him, he could very well be the best fantasy starting pitcher in baseball.
I strongly considered dropping Chris Sale due to his elbow injury, but word is he should be back shortly after one rehab start. I’m still concerned here, but his skills are dynamite, so he’s clearly a top option if healthy.
Hahahaha, my preseason bust pick was Max Scherzer. Niiiiiice.
David Price vaults into the top tier as he has scoffed at another season of velocity loss and is inducing swinging strikes like never before. Combine the boost in strikeout rate with impeccable control and you have yourself one more top option.
It’s bold, but Masahiro Tanaka leaps over an entire tier to join the top group. His skills have been off the charts, his SwStk% sits at a remarkable 15.8%, he gets ground balls and throws tons of strikes. While it will be interesting to see how he fares the second time around the league, it’s hard to imagine him suddenly flopping after this kind of start. I was initially concerned about his eventual innings total, but if he could reach 200, he fits here.
Ron Swanson
Anibal Sanchez
Jered Weaver
R.A. Dickey
James Shields
Anibal Sanchez loses value, but still remains here. His velocity has regressed back to pre-2013 levels and he’s generating a lower rate of swinging strikes. R. A. Dickey has played Jekyll and Hyde this year, as he’s had two excellent starts, three terrible ones, and one mediocre one. The good news is that his knuckleball velocity is higher than last year, which has led to an improved SwStk% and better strikeout rate. Walks have been an issue in the early going, but he hasn’t struggled with his control for many years.
Chris Traeger
Alex Cobb
Hisashi Iwakuma
Hiroki Kuroda
Rather than remove injured pitchers and place them in some injured tier all by their lonesome, I’m leaving the guys in the tiers they would be in had they been healthy. So Cobb remains here. Iwakuma should be back within the week. Hiroki Kuroda drops a tier. His skills have held up amazingly well, defying the effects of aging, with no signs of imminent decline. However, his velocity is down a bit (technically marking the fifth straight season of decline) and he’s generating a lower rate of swinging strikes. He’s obviously been unlucky so far, stranding just 61% of runners, but it’s possible we’re finally seeing old age take its toll.
Donna Meagle
Danny Salazar
CC Sabathia
C.J. Wilson
Sonny Gray
Corey Kluber
Jon Lester
Jake Peavy
Danny Salazar was the unsleepiest sleeper in the history of fantasy baseball. He was more expensive than many very good veterans, which was lunacy. He drops a tier, as his velocity is down and his control hasn’t been as good. He has also been an extreme fly ball pitcher and his supporting defense has been atrocious. Yet, he has still struck out over a batter per inning and sports a solid 3.44 SIERA.
I considered bumping CC Sabathia up a tier — boy would that have created a firestorm! Amazingly, even with sub-90 mph fastball velocity, his strikeout rate is at a career high, as is both his F-Strike% and ground ball rate. His SIERA sits at a studly 2.70. He may just be the stealthiest buy low in the history of fantasy baseball. Unless of course you think that he’ll continue to allow home runs on 23% of his fly balls, fail to strand runners at even a league average clip and post a .333 BABIP.
I’m a fan of Sonny Gray’s given his intriguing blend of strikeouts, solid control and gobs of grounders, but he’s looking like quite the sell high — if you can get a top offensive player for him. His underlying skills are generally what was expected, but only one homer allowed and a crazy 81.6% LOB% is making him look like a Cy Young contender.
Andy Dwyer
Scott Kazmir
Yordano Ventura
Clay Buchholz
John Lackey
Justin Masterson
Chris Tillman
Tommy Milone
Rick Porcello
Dan Straily
Jose Quintana
Kazmir appears down here only because of his injury history. Can we really expect more than 160-170 innings? He’s not all that different from Peavy in that respect, but Peavy is a bit safer from a performance expectation perspective. Yordano Ventura makes a big leap as his secondary pitches have been fantastic, generating tons of swinging strikes and grounders. That was my biggest concern, but his control has also been excellent.
Clay Buchholz‘s velocity was at its best in his last start and it looks fine now. After last year’s luckfest, the dragons are getting their revenge, sticking him with a ridiculous .380 BABIP and stripping his ability to strand runners. Justin Masterson‘s velocity is down, but his skills are as good as ever. The poor Indians defense is probably playing a role in his struggles, given that elevated .333 BABIP. Dan Straily’s skills have been fantastic and his strikeout rate boost is supported by a wonderful 13% SwStk%. A 19.4% HR/FB ratio is killing his ERA, but that’s going to come down.
Jean-Ralphio
Tyler Skaggs
Drew Smyly
Wei-Yin Chen
Michael Pineda
James Paxton
Chris Archer
Drew Hutchison
I introduced you to the new Tyler Skaggs last week and I remain confused. He has a chance of moving higher, but those strikeouts must return for that to happen. Michael Pineda could be out a month with a strain of his teres major muscle (whatever that is), and his skills were a far cry from what they were before his shoulder injury and surgery. His slider has again been excellent at generating swinging strikes, but his fastball no longer is. That said, I wasn’t projecting a whole lot for him to begin with, which is why he doesn’t move.
It’s too bad James Paxton got hurt, as he was showing some exciting skills. Drew Hutchison jumps a tier as his fastball velocity is up as we heard and it has generating a fantastic SwStk%, to go along with a solid slider and plus changeup. The only question mark is how many innings he is going to finish with.
Leslie Knope
Hector Santiago
Mark Buehrle
Jason Vargas
Scott Feldman
Miguel Gonzalez
Garrett Richards
Ubaldo Jimenez
Phil Hughes
Ricky Nolasco
Bud Norris
Martin Perez
Robbie Ross
Jesse Chavez
Dallas Keuchel
Garrett Richards‘ velocity is up, but that strikeout rate is simply not sustainable given his strike type breakdown. It’s also difficult to maintain throwing 75% fastballs. Since he’s throwing fewer than 60% strikes (league average around 63% – 64%), control has been a problem, but it hasn’t affected his surface results thanks to a crazy .195 BABIP and just one homer allowed.
The bad Ubaldo Jimenez has returned as he freefalls in the rankings. His velocity is down for the fourth straight year, his SwStk% is at a career low and his control has regressed. What the heck happened to Ricky Nolasco? He drops like a rock as well. Obviously, we all figured he’d suffer a performance decline after moving to the American League, but he’s struck out just 13 batters in nearly 30 innings! His velocity is fine, but he just isn’t missing bats.
Robbie Ross jumps a tier as he has made a seamless transition to the Rangers rotation. He has displayed the holy trinity of skills and the only thing capping his upside right now is a likely innings limit. Speaking of innings limits, Jesse Chavez follows Ross in tier jumping, but will also likely face an innings cap. I’m less optimistic about his future success though as his strikeout rate is being driven primarily by a sky high called strike rate. This is not something he has ever shown the skill for before. But, he could regress and still possess a solid overall skill set.
Dallas Keuchel is yet another tier jumper. Already an extreme ground baller, he is throwing more strikes and inducing more swings and misses. If only he was on a better team.
Perd Hapley
Taijuan Walker
Zach McAllister
Brett Oberholtzer
Brandon Morrow
John Danks
Bruce Chen
Felix Doubront
Felipe Paulino
Colin McHugh
Brandon Morrow was looking interesting with perhaps a return to shallow mixed league relevance given the bounce back in his strikeout rate. Then he proceeded to walk eight of the 14 batters he faced in his last start before his removal from the game. It’s extremely hard to predict what you’re going to get on a start by start basis.
Who the heck are you, Colin McHugh? I stuck him at the end for now, as I need to see more than two ridiculously good starts. And yes, those starts were ridiculous. He posted a 15.3% SwStk% and every pitch he throws (with the exception of his two-seamer than he has only thrown three times) has a SwStk% above 10%. He could be up several tiers, or off this list completely, by next month.
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
I appreciate the rankings, just some of my quick thoughts:
The Tigers don’t even view Drew Smlyl as a starter 😉 … seems like a lofty ranking for a glorified RP
Dickey will always be Jekyl and Hyde minus that one great year. You can find similar elite years on early Tim Wakefield. I’m not buying whatsoever.
Kind of ironic you use injuries to keep pitchers that should move down but then chain Kazmir. His upside is absolutely worth the injury risk (and he was rushed back before imo)
Not sure why Hutchison is an upward mover… pitchers in the tier below have better situations for long-term success (pitching in LAA/OAK)
Milone doesn’t impress me :/
Not sure what you mean about Smyly not being viewed as a starter by the Tigers. He’s a starter. He’s in their rotation. But he’s been their #5 (now the #4 thanks to Anibal Sanchez’s injury), and they’ve skipped him when they could due to off days. They won’t be able to do that in the coming months when there aren’t as many off days or rain outs.
True, that was unfair of me to say and somewhat inaccurate. I still think he is too highly rated in his given tier.
But — to be fair — not all teams skip their #5 starter. The Tigers have at every opportunity and seems will continue to do so when Anibal comes back.
As for fantasy purposes he already lost some potential value, and on top of that when he starts being a SP on a regular basis he’ll have to improve vs righties to stay there…
My 2 cents, long story short, would knock down a tier… others are more deserving imo
He may BE a starter but they can’t SEE him that way.
Of course, it’s been raining in Detroit so maybe they need new windshield wipers.
Any ranking system that has Ron Swanson as second tier had to be fundamentally questioned
Chris Traeger sadly needs to be retired. He is literally no longer a part of the show. Cones of Dunshire might deserve its own tier.
Unless it has April Ludgate as 1st tier
Ranking Leslie Knope below Jean Ralphio is clearly the work of a madman.
How about a Tammy II tier with pitchers that you are powerless to resist picking up only to get f*#ked repeated by them and then left for dead. Carrasco, anyone?
And for the Pelfreys not worth mentioning, I nominate Kyle.
Indeed — you had me at meat tornado.
Kazmir is way too low. I get the injury risk, but Wowza, I would take him over a bunch of guys ranked higher easily. But overall, great list. Funny how quickly Tanaka is too tier, I agree.
I currently have Teheran, Alex Wood, Salazar, Kluber, Skaggs, and Richards with Stroman and Butler waiting in the wings and Derek Holland and Jarrod Parker on the DL in a 5×5 roto dynasty league. With a 1200 IP limit, I prefer to use 5 RP (2-3 CL and 2-3 CL-in-waiting) and 4-5 SP, so I’m well over the SP I’d normally carry. My team is generally young and on the threshold of contention. I expect I will need to drop at least 1-2 SP over the next week or 2. Richards was a short-term play and is probably the first to go, but who would be 2nd to go? For this season, wins will make the most difference in the standings for me.
I’d watch Salazar and Kluber to see which one seems to get things together and drop the other. They are kind of redundant on the same team, maybe you can sell high on one after a good start.
I vote Tommy Milone is at least two tiers too high.
Poor Jake Odorizzi isn’t even a starter in the Parks+Rec stratosphere. Is he finally a failed Rays pitching prospect?
He’s been there for a year, I wouldn’t call him a failed ‘Rays’ prospect. Probably Royals
As a Peavy owner (talk about a crazy LOB%), I’m worried. I’d prolly rather have most everyone in the tier below him. Keep in mind he also has an injury history and his walk rate/zone %/pace suggest he could be injured. No way he should be in the same tier as CC who is probably the best buy low out there right now.
Great stuff. You did a better job with pitchers than P+R though:
Ron Swanson
Knope
Lil Sebastian (RIP 5-ever)
Jean-Ralphio
Literally Chris Traeger
Duke Silver
Bert Maclain
(I think it’s Burt Macklin.)
Jesse Chavez’s current performance being put in a group with Phil Hughes?
I would much rather have Sonny Gray than either Dickey or Weaver. Obviously the strand rate and HR/FB rates will come back to earth, but based on his profile (K’s and GB’s) they should settle in the ~75% and ~8% range where he was last year. That legitimately could keep him in the Cy Young discussion, at the very least much more so than Dickey/Weaver.
I understand his tier at this point in the season, but I think he will be much higher in a couple months.
Why is Weaver anywhere near that category…tossing an 87 MPH fastball around like a 43 year old. I’m sure the numbers under the hood aren’t great either I don’t feel like looking them up.
The biggest thing seems to be Weaver’s walk rate: His K-rate, BABIP and LOB% are all at basically his career averages, but his HR rate has gone up slightly and he has his BB% spike by 3%. Personally, if I was a betting man, I’d predict Weaver doing better and the walk rate coming down, but he is still more of an okay pitcher than great.
FYI, I think Toronto may have a hot radar gun so I don’t quite buy Buchholz’s velocity being back – velo was up for all the starting pitchers in that series, and you see Buehrle and Morrow have both gotten bumps in their velo charts in home games so far this season. I’d tread lightly, he’s been throwing way more pitches in the zone, with diminished stuff, and guys are hammering him because of it. There’s a strong chance he ends up cratering, rather than rebounding.
What kind of hitter is a realistic target for Sonny Gray in a OBP league, keeping in mind that this is a keeper league where Gray can be kept as a 10th rounder next season?
I just flipped him for the hot Morneau.
You got robbed.
Indeed you did. I think Gray will be considered a top 20 SP before season end. Morneau is good but most of his numbers are going to come from Coors.
Was the Colby Lewis omission intentional?
Yes, given his recent injury history and his pathetic SwStk% in a tiny sample so far, I’m not confident he’ll earn any value.
Ryu
Paxton or Pineda?
Paxton
Care to elaborate any more on Dickey’s ranking? I can’t imagine many owners would trade Cobb, Iwakuma, Gray, Ventura, or pretty much anyone else in the three tiers below him for Dickey right now. That’s always the test for me.
I don’t care what other owners would do. I’m not ranking players on what other people’s opinions are, I’m ranking them based on my expectations for the pitcher for the rest of the season.
In that case, why do you feel that Dickey will do better than Iwakuma, Gray et al? Iwakuma’s numbers in the past have basically been all around better than Dickey’s, save for one super year. Is it just the super year or are you worried about Iwakuma’s injury?
Innings! I’ve said this several times in my preseason rankings. Innings matter. Dickey is pretty much a lock for well over 200 innings. That boosts both his strikeout and win total. Because of this, he’s more valuable than guys I ranked below him who I am projecting for better ratios.
I get what you mean, but I hate that argument, and you use it all the time. In many leagues if you lose a guy to innings count you grab somebody else. Innings are depth dependent (inversely) and for most leagues you’d absolutely rather have the great guy pitching 170 than the mediocre 200. And it is such a big deal to your rankings that it skews things horribly, in my opinion.
Two responses here: First, if you’re picking up a replacement level pitcher, he’s going to by definition hurt your ratios. So anything he gives you in wins and strikeouts will be taken away by the harm to your ratios. Second, it’s simply not how you value players. We don’t value by roster slot, we value the player’s individual contribution. If you ignore innings, that changes the entire rankings drastically, not just Dickey.
It certainly does change the rankings drastically. Replacement level with a great matchup won’t hurt ratios much if at all in most leagues. Like I said, it’s depth dependent. I think experts play in so many 15 team AL onlys that it distorts things.
The original rankings were based on my dollar values in a 12-team mixed league. The values are strictly calculated from my projected statistics for that player. I’m not adding in a replacement level pitcher’s stats to every pitcher to get to a set number of total innings pitched.
So, should I flip Darvish for Tanaka and Rendon in a keeper league (with no restrictions, salaries, etc.)?
Wow I have #1, 3, 8, and 10 on this list as well as Perez and Straily on my fantasy team and my pitching has been quite subpar. Hoping for some improvement here…
If Bauer was called up prior to making this list, where would he fall?
I’d say the Jean-Ralphio tier with the chance of rising quickly. He’s still an extreme fly ball pitcher and I need to see more to know if his control improvement is real. Love the velocity rebound though.
Yea Id take Kazmir over everyone Kuroda and below except MAYBE sonny. Thanks for the article tho.
Thanks as always for the insight, but am I missing something? Did a tier get deleted between Haverford and Swanson? I don’t see Kershaw, Bumgarner, Wainwright, Hamels, Wacha, Cole or several other elite/near-elite type guys listed here.
Oh boy, I am an idiot. Scoured the whole post except the title: “AL Starting Pitcher Tier Rankings” My bad!