Everyone trying to predict this game gets things wrong. Take for example, me. I took a look at Shin-Soo Choo on the Indians and thought he’d be a perfect guy to sell high before his eroding athleticism became more obvious. Ooops? Let’s check more closely, though. We do know he went from a pitcher’s park to a hitter’s one, and that can go a long way towards covering up a continued decline.

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Chris Carter has been on fantasy radars for several seasons, getting plenty of helium after launching an impressive 39 home runs in 2008 with Oakland’s High-A affiliate. He followed that banner season with 28 and 34 homers in 2009 and 2010, respectively, before bouncing between Triple-A and the majors for a couple years.

Fantasy owners have long desired to see what he could accomplish with 500+ plate appearances in a season, but defensive limitations and a penchant for striking out had previously kept him from getting regular playing time. That is, until the Houston Astros committed to him as a full-time player, splitting time between first base, left field and DH.

In his first full-season stint in the big leagues, Carter epitomized the three-true outcome approach. He struck out in more than a third of his plate appearances, posted a 12.0% walk rate and finished with 29 long balls. While only hitting .223 on the season, his power/patience approach still allowed him to remain an above-average contributor at the plate. He had a 113 wRC+ and 112 OPS+.

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We have arrived at outfield week and that means another day of reviewing my Pod’s Picks at the position. With so many busts, it shall be interesting to see how my rankings stacked up. With so many players being ranked at the position, it allows for much more disagreement, unlike some of the other positions where sometimes my choices below were just two or three ranks different, which isn’t all that meaningful.

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The 2013 fantasy baseball season has come to a close, so it is time to look back at the season past and determine which players were the most valuable at each position. This week focuses on outfielders.

The players were ranked based on their 2013 production, using the evaluation system explained and updated on this site some time ago. To keep things manageable and avoid skewing the numbers, players were only considered if they amassed 400 plate appearances over the course of the year. The replacement level was also adjusted to account for players eligible at multiples positions. The valuations are built for $260 budgets and traditional 5×5 roto fantasy leagues, where only one catcher is started.

One important thing to note is the premium (or lack thereof) placed on the position a player occupies in your lineup. For example, while a first baseman may be able to accumulate superior overall numbers, the availability of such production lower in the rankings severely dampers the amount the player was worth.

These rankings are meant to reflect a player’s value should he have occupied this spot in your lineup for the entire year. So, a player who missed time due to injury but put up great numbers during his time on the field would be worth less.

With all this in mind, here are your rankings. Read the rest of this entry »

The last two weeks, I have discussed two precocious prospects–Mets shortstop Amed Rosario and Rays righthander German Marquez–who were born in 1995. The idea of professional baseball players born in the middle of the 1990s probably still takes some getting used to for many casual observers, but indeed, we may be less than three years from seeing the first pro baseball player born in the 2000s.

Players like Rosario and Marquez hold a lot of intrigue, but they also are buried in short-season leagues, far from the majors, and thus also below the general prospect mainstream. This week, however, I’m going to examine a player born in 1995 who already has broken through into the mainstream consciousness: Royals shortstop prospect Raul Mondesi.

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Writer’s Note: J.J. Hardy ranks ninth among shortstops in Zach Sanders’ rankings.

J.J. Hardy experienced a rebound of sorts in 2013, hitting .263/.306/.433 with 25 home runs, 76 RBI, and a .322 wOBA. That’s pretty much right in line with his career line of .260/.312/.428; in fact, that’s also a .322 wOBA. His 162-game averages (via Baseball Reference) are 23 home runs and 76 RBI. Read the rest of this entry »

Martin Prado had eligibility all over the field in 2013, but it’s likely that most owners used him at shortstop where he had the most value. In his first year as a Diamondback, Prado’s Steamer projections pegged him at .294/.351/.445 with 13 home runs, 84 runs, 66 RBI, and eight steals. As an outfielder that’s rather underwhelming, but as a shortstop, that represents a classic ‘checking off all the respective boxes’ in standard rotisserie leagues.

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It proved to be paradoxical year for Ben Zobrist, who has been exceedingly popular in fantasy leagues in recent years due to his under-the-radar skills and positional flexibility. The 32-year-old experienced his worst offensive performance (.334 wOBA) since 2010, yet his fantasy value was arguably higher this season than it was a year ago, in which he posted a .365 wOBA.

This strange improvement wasn’t due to an unexpected increase in stolen bases or RBI, which would be similarly absent from his wOBA. Instead, Zobrist proved more valuable this year in fantasy circles than in 2012 because the overall production from shortstop experienced a sharp decline. He was the tenth-ranked shortstop in ESPN leagues in 2012, but the ninth-ranked shortstop this year. While his overall numbers took a nosedive, his relational value amongst shortstops actually increased, which is an overarching statement that’s interesting on its own.

Now, part of that was due to the injuries to guys like Jose Reyes and Derek Jeter, as well as an albatross season by Starlin Castro, so perhaps fantasy owners should expect the overall performance from shortstops to increase next season. However, the real object of inquiry in this article seeks to determine why Ben Zobrist experienced such a sharp decline in production and whether that decrease can be expected to carry into the 2014 season. Owners should keep in mind that Reyes and Jeter will return — and will likely demand a lot of attention on draft day — but Zobrist could be a sly under-the-radar pickup if he can reasonably be expected to rebound from his uncharacteristic season.

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The only thing that has kept Everth Cabrera from topping 50 stolen bases in a single season is a lack of playing time. He only got 449 PA in 2012 because he didn’t get called up until May 17. Apparently Jason Bartlett needed to come to the plate 100 times first. And then last year he played his final game on August 4 thanks to his 50-game Biogenesis suspension. But presumably Jason Bartlett will not steal 100 PA from him and there will not be another suspension in 2014, so Cabrera has an excellent chance to steal 50.

He has stolen 81 bags on 97 tries in the last two years (83.5%), and he stole 128 bags in 1,535 minor league plate appearances (roughly once every 12 PA). And once every 12 PA was about the rate at which Cabrera stole bases last year. For you math whizzes, he’d get to 50 steals if he could steal bases at that rate over 600 PA.

Getting to the plate enough is important, but getting on base is at least as important for a base stealer, if not more so. Cabrera improved mightily in that respect last year when he saw his OBP go from .324 in 2012 to .355. The jump was due primarily to a vastly improved contact rate and thus a much lower strikeout rate. He swung a little less as well, but it was primarily the improved contact skills that facilitated the OBP improvement. A slight improvement in his line drive to fly ball ratio also helped out a little. Below are a couple of charts showing these improvements. Read the rest of this entry »

Remember when Asdrubal Cabrera was a rising star? 2011 doesn’t seem like it was that long ago, but for Cabrera it was. That year, he broke out as a fantasy star, hitting 25 homers with 17 steals and a .273/.332/.460 line in his age-25 season. Since then, he’s combined for 30 homers and 18 steals, and in 2013 he really cratered, putting together a lousy line of .242/.299/.402. Yet it seems to me that he still gets talked about like he’s a top-tier shortstop. Maybe that’s just me, or maybe it’s because “Asdrubal” is such a unique name, but it’s clear he no longer deserves that respect, finishing only 15th in our end of season shortstop rankings.

Throw in lousy defense — which doesn’t matter for fantasy, but does for teams actually wanting to employ him — and he was essentially a replacement-level player, and headed into his age-28 season with Mike Aviles around and Francisco Lindor coming, he may very well have played his final game as an Indian. Read the rest of this entry »