Every year, we all have our short list of “must have” guys on draft day. I used to be so concerned about value that I’d begrudgingly let those “must have” guys slip away when they became a couple dollars too expensive, but as I’ve gotten more experienced, I’ve started to trust my analysis a little more and ensure I acquire the players I covet. This year, I drafted Mike Minor, Jean Segura and Jason Kipnis in all four of my leagues. Those were my guys.
Ever since ottoneu was developed, I have played exclusively in dynasty leagues, and primarily in leagues that I started. But twice in the last three years, I have had a chance to jump into an already-active dynasty and take over an abandoned team. And so far, nothing in fantasy baseball has proven as challenging as taking over another owner’s roster.
This time of year, leagues that have lost owners are looking for replacements and since I am going through a take-over myself, I thought I’d look at what it takes to start a turn-around.
Today we begin second base week and that means a look back at my Pod’s Picks at the position. It wasn’t that crazy a season with most of the usual suspects atop the value list and only a couple of true surprises. Let’s see how my rankings compared to the actual ones.
The 2013 fantasy baseball season has come to a close, so it is time to look back at the season past and determine which players were the most valuable at each position. This week focuses on second baseman.
The players were ranked based on their 2013 production, using the evaluation system explained and updated on this site some time ago. To keep things manageable and avoid skewing the numbers, players were only considered if they amassed 400 plate appearances over the course of the year. The replacement level was also adjusted to account for players eligible at multiples positions. The valuations are built for $260 budgets and traditional 5×5 roto fantasy leagues, where only one catcher is started.
One important thing to note is the premium (or lack thereof) placed on the position a player occupies in your lineup. For example, while a first baseman may be able to accumulate superior overall numbers, the availability of such production lower in the rankings severely dampers the amount the player was worth.
These rankings are meant to reflect a player’s value should he have occupied this spot in your lineup for the entire year. So, a player who missed time due to injury but put up great numbers during his time on the field would be worth less.
With all this in mind, here are your rankings. Read the rest of this entry »
In some ways, Prince Fielder’s 2013 looked an awful lot like his 2012. In fact, depending on league type, he could have been nearly as valuable this year as he was last.
Consider:
| Year | 2012 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|
| Games Played | 162 | 162 |
| Home Runs | 30 | 25 |
| Runs Scored | 83 | 82 |
| Runs Batted In | 108 | 106 |
To those in 5×5 leagues, that’d probably look like a bit of a decline, and perhaps not even enough of one to draw statistical significance from.
But if Fielder’s October performance wasn’t indicative enough — 9 for 40 with just one extra-base hit — 2013 was certainly a down year. Especially by Fielder’s lofty standards (career .388 wOBA, .358 in ‘13). Read the rest of this entry »
As a fantasy manager, you look at Michael Cuddyer’s 2013 season statistics and there should be giant flashing red lights around this number: .382. That’s Cuddyer’s BABIP. Granted, he earned a good deal of that given his hit trajectory which was a fairly tidy 20/50/30 LD/GB/FB, producing a .355 expected BABIP. But for a soon to be 35-year old with a career BABIP rate of .312, we should all probably temper our expectations for 2014.
According to our end of season valuations, Chris Davis was not only the most valuable first baseman but also the most valuable player in the game. And that’s just based on production. When you consider his draft day price and ADP, he’s probably one of the greatest values in the history of fantasy baseball. It’s obvious he won’t be able to repeat the draft day value, but if he is going to live up to his draft day value next year, he’ll have to produce similarly. Can he? Read the rest of this entry »
Over the summer, Mike Petriello wrote a wonderful article outlining the improvements shown by Adam Lind in the first half of the season. The Blue Jays’ first baseman had consciously chosen to become more patient at the plate, and Mike broke down the numbers to illustrate the point. Indeed, Lind was swinging at fewer pitches outside the zone — and at fewer pitches in general — which resulted in a higher walk rate and overall higher production.
To further the point, if we place his seasonal numbers in conversation with each other, it’s quite easy to understand why Lind experienced success for the first time since his 2009 breakout campaign.
| Year | BB% | Swing% | ISO | wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 8.9% | 43.2% | .257 | .396 |
| 2010 | 6.2% | 49.0% | .188 | .309 |
| 2011 | 5.9% | 50.1% | .188 | .316 |
| 2012 | 8.2% | 44.0% | .159 | .316 |
| 2013 | 9.8% | 41.1% | .209 | .368 |
When Adam Lind is more selective at the plate, he hits for more power and compiles a higher wOBA. The 2012 season stands out as a potential counterexample, but it’s important to remember that Lind didn’t do much other than pound baseballs into the ground a year ago. His 48.3% ground ball rate hindered him from tapping into his plus power, and while his 45.9% ground ball rate from this season isn’t much lower, that rate is pulled up from a 55.7% ground ball rate in the month of August. Not surprisingly, Lind rocked a mere .126 ISO in August.
Todd Helton is now retired. I’m sad to see him leave the game, and I think everyone else is as well. Dude is legend.
Now, these positional profiles have generally focused on how things changed for a player, sustainability and 2014 outlook. At the end of the first base series, however, I wanted to just look back and appreciate Helton, who, it turns out, was one of the top stars of the beginning of the ‘modern era’ of fantasy baseball.
Read the rest of this entry »
Episode 76
Today’s episode of The Sleeper and the Bust stars yours truly and features RotoGraphs editor Eno Sarris. We discuss another Cuban defector and wrap up the first base crop.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @mikepodhorzer or @enosarris on Twitter and tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.
You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.
Intro by DJ Sinton (no, contrary to popular belief, I do not moonlight as a rap star)
Approximately 48 min of joyous analysis.
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