In the baseball internet system, fantasy news and notes are considered especially important. At Rotographs, the aforementioned notes are included in an elite article known as the Roto Riteup. These are the stories.
[DUN DUN]
On today’s agenda:
1. Matt Kemp returns, leaves
2. Roy Halladay throws off a mound
3. Clay Buchholz heads off to Dr. James Andrews’ office
4. Fun with arbitrary endpoints
• Andrew Bailey’s shoulder put a quick end to any of the recent speculation that he may have been a candidate to move back to the ninth inning in the next few weeks. Bailey suffered labrum and shoulder capsule damage (supposedly acutely during his last outing) and will undergo surgery this Wednesday. Shoulder surgery is a big deal, and Bailey will be sidelined for the remainder of 2013 and at least the early part of 2014. He’s likely to be non-tendered by the Red Sox this offseason and outside of extraordinarily deep dynasty leagues, has virtually no fantasy value.
Episode 40
Today’s episode of The Sleeper and the Bust stars yours truly and features RotoGraphs contributor David Wiers. We discuss a pitcher possibly on the move and another aiming to return soon after a long absence.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @mikepodhorzer or @enosarris on Twitter and tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.
You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.
Intro by DJ Sinton (no, contrary to popular belief, I do not moonlight as a rap star)
Approximately 38 min of joyous analysis.
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Yesterday, I wrote about some interesting findings regarding how the Rogers Centre plays and how it’s reputation for being a hitter’s park is somewhat misconstrued when looked at on a day-to-day basis. I cut the analysis short because the Dome was expected to be closed (it had stormed all night and was overcast in the morning) but it was open. It was also 75 degrees, with an 11MPH wind blowing out to center, and there was just a lone home run hit. That’s a day after eight (!) were hit on Friday with the Dome closed.
That ultimate small sample might lead one to believe the park plays better closed, but Rob Pettapiece found this not to be true.
Given the past two days and the fact that I’ll be at The Stadium Formerly Known as SkyDome a few times in the next week, I decided to dive in a bit deeper. I pulled weather and scoring data from 2010 to the present and summated it after the jump.
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Rather than a movie from the present author’s childhood, today’s intro is from the author’s high school days. Yesterday it was confirmed that Super Troopers 2 has been given the green light.
On today’s agenda:
1. Matt Holliday to the disabled list
2. A rough rehab performance for Chris Carpenter
3. Possible set back for Alex Rodriguez
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Hope y’all enjoyed the All-Star break, I know I did. Here are just a few bullpen notes from today:
Rafael Betancourt landed on the 15-day disabled list today after undergoing a last-minute appendectomy. The 38-year-old showed up to the stadium hoping to play through the pain, but his 10-year-old son wisely informed the Rockies’ medical staff that his father had been awfully sick the night before. After a quick evaluation the medical staff suspected the closer was suffering from appendicitis, resulting in the procedure. Betancourt could need two-to-three weeks of recovery time. The Rockies shelved Betancourt back in June for a groin strain causing the veteran to miss 25 games. So in just 28 appearances this season, Betancourt is 15-of-16 in save chances with a 3.16 ERA (1.20 WHIP) and a 22.2% K%. Not bad for fantasy purposes, but the red flags continue to ascend as his fastball velocity, K% and SwStr% have all dipped while his BB% spiked for the fourth consecutive year.
And we’re back! Not to sound like a typical millennial…but man this movie was awesome as a kid in the 90’s.
On today’s agenda:
1. Quick thoughts on Justin Smoak
2. Chad Gaudin: spot starter
3. Junior Lake’s debut
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Here are this week’s recommendations:
Ubaldo Jimenez – 13.2% ESPN/19% Y! – @SEA (.313 team wOBA), v. TEX (.322)
I still feel pretty good about my recommendations this week, but it’s certainly difficult to get a feel for who is starting Monday and Tuesday even now on Saturday with so many “undecideds” and even a blank spot in the upcoming schedule over at ESPN.com.
I keep telling myself I’ll never let Ubaldo hook me again, but here we are. A thoroughly mediocre, no longer hard-thrower with insane splits, Jimenez keeps his ownership levels at a spot where I still feel like I can pick my spots with him. The Mariners matchup is one that looks extremely accommodating; not only is Jimenez facing an average offense, but he has a 3.31 road ERA this year — compared to a 6.09 mark at home.
Certainly that makes the Rangers matchup pretty scary, but as has been said in this spot for the past 50-something weeks, sometimes it’s one matchup that has to tip the scales.
Kyle Gibson – 1.1% ESPN/4% Y! – @LAA (.328), @SEA (.313)
Gibson’s overall line isn’t pretty — 6.45-3.68-5.88 pitching slash — but outside of a blowup against the Yankees on July 4, the tall righty has been otherwise fairly decent. In fact, Gibson avenged the Independence Day blowout by beating the Yankees on the road in his last start of the first half, tossing five innings of one-run ball in a 10-4 Twins win.
What’s been a bit troubling with Gibson so far is the strikeouts — or lack thereof. In the second game versus the Yankees, Gibson fanned just one while walking four, and after starting his career with a 5-0 K/BB outing against the Royals, Gibson’s K/BB is an ugly 6/9. Gibson will certainly rely on command, but he should have enough raw stuff to at least come near a league-average strikeout rate, which combined with his good control, should mean he’ll soon show some improvement in both respects.
Also, he’s facing Joe Blanton on Monday. So that should help.
Tyler Skaggs – 0.6% ESPN/6% Y! – v. CHC (.309), v. SDP (.303)
Here’s a situation where I’m counting on ESPN’s probables, as Skaggs was optioned out to High-A Visalia prior to the All Star break to keep him on regular rest. With an option date of July 11, Skaggs should/would be eligible to come back up prior to Monday, when ESPN has him slated to start against the Cubs — and Matt Garza.
Skaggs has made five starts so far this season, and has fared rather well. He’s posted a strikeout rate above league-average (7.8 per 9), gotten a fair number of grounders (41.6%), and nothing in his profile looks too out of whack, except perhaps the 1.24 HR/9 mark. As a result, Skaggs’ 4.03 ERA falls about in line with what should be expected, and with a couple of matchups against below-average offenses in the upcoming week, the lefty looks like a good play in some very deep leagues. Get him while you can, because I think he’d be the preferred option over Randall Delgado in the near term.
Previous Results:
Week 1: 1-3, 30 IP, 3.00 ERA, 5.4 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, 1.13 WHIP (Kevin Slowey, Ubaldo Jimenez, Joe Saunders)
Week 2: 2-3, 25.1 IP, 5.69 ERA, 6.8 K/9, 2.4 K/BB, 1.74 WHIP (Joe Blanton, James McDonald, Eric Stults)
Week 3: 1-2, 32 IP, 3.66 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 3.1 K/BB, 1.22 WHIP (Wade Davis, Carlos Villanueva, Patrick Corbin)
Week 4: 2-1, 22 IP, 6.14 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 1.95 WHIP (Julio Teheran, Jason Hammel, Garrett Richards)
Week 5: 2-2, 30 IP, 3.60 ERA, 5.4 K/9, 1.6 K/BB, 1.23 WHIP (Scott Diamond, Nick Tepesch, Andrew Cashner)
Week 6: 2-3, 32.2 IP, 4.96 ERA, 5.5 K/9, 2.0 K/BB, 1.44 WHIP (Justin Grimm, Juan Nicasio, Hector Santiago)
Week 7: 1-0, 29 IP, 3.41 ERA, 6.8 K/9, 1.8 K/BB, 1.34 WHIP (Julio Teheran, Phil Hughes, Scott Kazmir)
Week 8: 1-0, 34.2 IP, 4.93 ERA, 7.0 K/9, 4.5 K/BB, 1.27 WHIP (Jhoulys Chacin, Kevin Slowey, Dan Straily)
Week 9: 3-1, 34 IP, 2.65 ERA, 7.4 K/9, 4.0 K/BB, 0.94 WHIP (John Danks, Andrew Cashner, Chris Tillman)
Week 10: 4-0, 35.2 IP, 2.27 ERA, 5.6 K/9, 3.7 K/BB, 1.12 WHIP (Tony Cingrani, Corey Kluber, John Lackey)
Week 11: 0-1, 27 IP, 5.67 ERA, 6.7 K/9, 2.2 K/BB, 1.41 WHIP (Dillon Gee, Dan Straily, Ubaldo Jimenez)
Week 12: 0-3, 33.2 IP, 4.81 ERA, 5.1 K/9, 1.7 K/BB, 1.49 WHIP (Esmil Rogers, Kevin Correia, Eric Stults)
Week 13: 1-2, 19 IP, 3.79 ERA, 2.4 K/9, 1.7 K/BB, 0.95 WHIP (Phil Hughes, Samuel Deduno, Roberto Hernandez)
Week 14: 2-3, 39.1 IP, 4.35 ERA, 5.7 K/9, 3.1 K/BB, 1.27 WHIP (Scott Feldman, Tyler Chatwood, Randall Delgado)
—————————————————————–
Total: 22-24 (.478), 424.1 IP, 4.11 ERA, 6.2 K/9, 2.5 K/BB, 1.31 WHIP
League Averages (Starters): .497 win percentage, 4.09 ERA, 7.1 K/9, 2.5 K/BB, 1.30 WHIP
Rogers Centre is sometimes grouped in with the “joke stadium” crowd for being a park that is very hitter friendly. It sure looked that way on Friday, too, with eight home runs flying out when the Jays and Rays did battle (8-5 final).
However, a recent article by Rob Pettapiece at Baseball Prospectus shed light on an interesting conclusion – Rogers Centre primarily plays “up” in seasonal numbers because the retractable roof prevents games from being played at cold temperatures. It takes any poor conditioned game and makes it 72 and sunny.
This afternoon, the Dome is likely to be closed unless I get a nice change in weather fortunes as I head out to the game. So with Mark Buehrle and Jeremy Hellickson on the mound, is today a good day to pick Rays or Jays?
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Chase Headley and Lonnie Chisenhall have both failed to meet reasonable expectations this year. As recently as yesterday, they ranked 14th and 31st at third base on this very site. They started the season ranked 5th, and 21st, respectively. In just four short months, the fall has been precipitous.
Third base certainly still boasts its share of superstars, but if you have a few 12-team league teams, there’s no doubt one of them has caused you problems at the hot corner. There number of disappointing black holes have been abundant. But there are a couple players that have been showing signs of life lately that should register on your radar if you’re looking for help.