Daily Fantasy Strategy – 7/21 – For Draftstreet

Yesterday, I wrote about some interesting findings regarding how the Rogers Centre plays and how it’s reputation for being a hitter’s park is somewhat misconstrued when looked at on a day-to-day basis. I cut the analysis short because the Dome was expected to be closed (it had stormed all night and was overcast in the morning) but it was open. It was also 75 degrees, with an 11MPH wind blowing out to center, and there was just a lone home run hit. That’s a day after eight (!) were hit on Friday with the Dome closed.

That ultimate small sample might lead one to believe the park plays better closed, but Rob Pettapiece found this not to be true.

Given the past two days and the fact that I’ll be at The Stadium Formerly Known as SkyDome a few times in the next week, I decided to dive in a bit deeper. I pulled weather and scoring data from 2010 to the present and summated it after the jump.

They’re small samples for park factors, but they’re pretty odd. Strong outward wind has lowered offense relative to even a closed dome, but light winds and inward winds have helped the park play up. In addition, winds to left are especially troubling (although it’s worth noting that any conditions show better offense than the league average).

Result: Inconclusive

The Daily Five
Mike Minor – $15,487
It may seem strange to double-down on a Braves starter at the White Sox after my Paul Maholm selection from Saturday got rocked, but I’m going to. There’s a 10 MPH wind blowing directly in to home plate and the Sox remain very bad against lefties not named Maholm (.279 wOBA, 19.7% strikeout rate). Minor, meanwhile, is even better than Maholm with a higher strikeout upside. I guess the “fool me once” saying could apply here, but I’m confident the analysis was correct and Saturday was just a bad outcome. Process over results, as they say.

Brandon Moss – $8,000
Like the Athletics, I love me some Moss against a righty. Jerome Williams in a favourable hitting environment is just icing on the cake. Moss has a 129 wRC+ this year when he faces a northpaw, continuing his career-long trend of being a productive major leaguer only against the more common tosser. You risk a strikeout or two anytime you take one of these three true outcomes guys, but he’s worth it for the power potential.

Norichika Aoki – $6,435
Aoki draws Henderson Alvarez, a pitch-to-contact type facing a make-contact-with-everything type in Aoki. Aoki’s price is depressed partially due to a recent injury that he’s back from and partially because of the times caught stealing – after going 30-for-38 on the bases as a rookie, he’s 10-for-20 this year. Jeff Mathis has been great against baserunners but started Saturday and seems unlikely to start twice in a row, so Aoki will have a chance to run. There’s also some pop there, and his no-K floor helps protect given Moss’ boom-or-bust potential.

Michael Saunders – $6,657
Jordan Lyles was having a great year until recently but seems to have some off the rails a bit over his past four starts. Saunders, meanwhile, is showing signs of coming around. He’s also a lefty (Lyles has reverse splits this year but has posted regular splits for most of his career) and has a wind blowing out to right on a warm day in Houston. Factor in that the Astros don’t control the running game particularly well and it’s easy to find a path to points for Saunders at well below an average price point.

Ryan Dempster – $10,105
Here’s the issue with Sunday’s slate – there are a ton of great pitchers throwing, but none come at a discount. You can take that and spend on it, hoping you spend it correctly, or you can take a lesser option and hope to find value. The latter is what I’ll do with Dempster, priced in the bottom third for starters. Dempster piles up the strikeouts and draws a Yankee team that is below average against righties, on a mild day at Fenway. It’s somewhat risky given that the Yankees do weird things, but there’s a big upside here at a fair price when most options are expensive.

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