Episode 44
Today’s episode of The Sleeper and the Bust stars yours truly and features RotoGraphs editor Eno Sarris. We discuss a disastrous outing by a Tommy John returnee, a slumping slugger and a new closer in Houston.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @mikepodhorzer or @enosarris on Twitter and tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Intro by DJ Sinton (no, contrary to popular belief, I do not moonlight as a rap star)

Approximately 44 min of joyous analysis.

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Jonathan Villar has flown a bit below the radar since his signing with the Philadelphia Phillies out of the Dominican Republic in 2008. After being dealt to Houston in the Roy Oswalt trade in 2010, he’s steadily moved through the Astros system.

While he’s only been league average at most stops along the way, Villar now finds himself in the majors at 22, being given every opportunity to permanently win the shortstop job, if you believe the team.

Villar doesn’t come with a great deal of prospect pedigree. Marc Hulet ranked him sixth in the Astros system in 2012 (10th in 2011) but thought his upside was too low (“utility guy”) to make the top-15 this season. He’s only cracked Baseball America’s Top-100 list once, coming in at number 94 in 2011. So there doesn’t appear there is much to be excited about.

However, the fact that Villar is older than just nine other players this season (using “Season Age,” not actual date of birth) is impressive. And since he’s been given lead-off duties and stolen four bases in seven games since his call up, people are interested, pushing his ownership tag up to 3.1% in ESPN leagues (4% in Yahoo).

But is there much to like here? Villar is known mostly for his defense and his strikeout rates have been pretty extreme in the minors (above 23% consistently). But he’s matched the whiffs with a decent approach that has landed his walk rate around 8%, giving him some additional OBP value beyond what is sure to be a mediocre average.

With the strikeouts and the lack of a batting average track record despite a high BABIP, it’s hard to see much average upside here. The average isn’t likely to be a concern though, considering his position. Andrelton Simmons is the 12th ranked shortstop in fantasy value this year and he’s batting .251. Elvis Andrus and J.J. Hardy are basically doing the same and rank higher. At shortstop, players are ownable at a pretty low threshold so long as they can provide some category juice.

Villar can likely do that. The speedster averaged 52 stolen bases per 150 games in his time in the minors and has hit the ground running this past week, so to speak, with the aforementioned four stolen bases. He also had an 80% success rate in the minors, a mark that stayed steady as he rose to Double-A and Triple-A. There’s little doubt that Villar can run and do so effectively. And as mentioned, thanks to a decent walk rate, his OBP has a chance to be average or just below, giving him ample opportunity.

Villar is ownable right now for the speed alone. But dynasty league players might be curious about his long term power upside as well, since a shortstop that can go .250-10-30 is immensely valuable. Villar stroked 11 homers per 150 games in the minors and has a frame that you could see additional bulk on as he ages. His isolated slugging has been consistently in the .150-range since High-A ball (though his slugging is low because of the paltry averages). There’s definitely 10-home run power in his bat now and that could eventually be a consistent 15.

Villar isn’t going to wow anybody at the dish, but the bar is so low at the shortstop position that he’s a recommended add right now for the speed and a longer-term option due to his power potential.

Jason Heyward is having a terrible year, I’m sure you noticed. What makes things harder on those that want to believe in positive regression from the star outfielder is that in some superficial ways, it looks like his other bad year, that one in 2011. Finding the differences between the two has implications both on Heyward’s rest-of-season prognosis, as well as the effort to pin-point his long-term upside.

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Ah, hot stove season! In less than 48 hours, the first of the two trade deadlines will have passed, and we’ll be looking at a few players in new places. As much as I love the deadline, it can also make for a rather frustrating couple of days for the daily fantasy player.

For example, here’s a piece from the Chicago Tribune detailing how Jake Peavy will be missing his start today, in favor of Andre Rienzo. Peavy, a hot name on the trade market this summer, may be traded today or tomorrow — he also may not. Regardless, Peavy will sit today, and Rienzo will start — despite what the names on your roster for your daily fantasy team tell you. And Peavy isn’t the only guy who might be missing a day today.

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It is not necessarily the best time to be a Phillies fan, what with the no shot at the playoffs and Ryan Howard getting paid forever and whatnot. But there is some help on the horizon, at least if you ask ottoneu players.

Two of the top three most auctioned players right now are in the Philly system, with an Astro in between them. We’ll take a look at Cuban pitching prospect Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, Double-A 3B Maikel Franco and presumptive Astro closer Jose Cisnero.

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As you all know by now, the batted ball distance leaderboards and individual player pages at BaseballHeatMaps.com is one of my new favorite toys. I’ve sliced and diced the data in many ways in various attempts to identify breakout and bust candidates. Since about two-thirds of the season is now in the books, the time seemed to be right to compare distances to last year.

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Tomorrow, July 31, will mark the 24th anniversary of Nintendo’s original Game Boy being available in-stores in North America. The present author was not old enough to have one at the time of release, however he does have fond memories of playing on his Game Boy Color.

On today’s agenda:
1. B.J. Upton’s looming return
2. The return of Michael Morse
3. A rough start for Brandon Beachy
4. Potential position change for Xander Bogaerts
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• By now you have heard the news, Jose Veras has been shipped out of Houson to Detroit. Veras was closing games for the Astros but in Detroit he will be relegated to setup duty as Joaquin Benoit will continue to pitch in the ninth, something he’s done quite well going 10/10 on save opportunities. When Benoit needs a break, I’d put Veras second in the pecking order ahead of Drew Smyly. Smyly has been the better pitcher this year and even  fares well against opposite handed hitters with a .281 wOBA against right-handed batters this year. However, Veras comes with the Closer Experience™ label that  Jim Leyland seems to prefer, and this could also allow Smyly to throw multiple innings on occasion.

As far as the Astros side is concerned, Mike Petriello had a great breakdown on what Houston’s bullpen will look like following the trade. I also agree with Mike that Jose Cisnero will take over the ninth in Houston and rather than echo all of his points, I suggest you read his take. Setting up Cisnero should be lefty Wesley Wright who has a pretty solid 3.55 xFIP on the year, but has struggled against right-handed batters his whole career (.369 wOBA against righties in 126.1 IP). Placing whoever is behind Wright might be anyone’s guess at the moment. Previously I might have said Hector Ambriz but he was sent to AAA today with Josh Zeid and Chia-Jen Lo getting the promotion to Houston. Although he just got the call, with names like Travis Blackley, Brett Oberholtzer and Josh Fields my money is on Josh Fields seeing some of the more higher leverage innings that are left. Acquired from Philadelphia in the Hunter Pence trade, Fields is a tall right-hander with some swing and miss stuff (10.92 K/9 in AAA this year), the Astros should be curious to see what he has.

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After taking a week off to vacation with my wife, I have quite a bit of injury information to catch up on. With the excess amount of information, I will look at some timely information today (pitchers returning from the disabled list) and tomorrow I will look at the HURT and PAIN leader boards, Zack Greinke, Jon Lester, Jason Marquis and other injury information.

Pitchers returning from D.L.

• Jake Peavy returned from the DL and has made two starts so far. Peavy is probably the most popular and available trade target for teams needing starting pitching depth. A few issues could limit his value.

First his fastball velocity is down in 2013 compared to 2012 as Chris Cwik examines in an earlier article at Rotographs.

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It is often difficult to factor a prospect’s age into his projection. We find ourselves struggling to decide if a 24-year-old High-A player hitting .350 with power is good or just a mirage; conversely, we have to tease out how much of a 17-year-old’s struggles in full-season ball are due to mere inexperience and how much results from a simple lack of talent.

Today, I’m going to look at five players who are very young for their levels but who we shouldn’t give up hope on. All five have average or worse statlines but could still evolve into big MLB assets.

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