Happy birthday to my older sister! Sis, if you read this, I’ll wonder how you stumbled across FanGraphs in the first place.
On today’s agenda:
1. The return of A.J. Pierzynski
2. Closer by committee in Miami
3. Adam Eaton to Triple-A, next stop Arizona?
4. Ryan Vogelsong’s broken hand
5. Carlos Ruiz to the 15-day disabled list
• Vinnie Pestano, Chris Perez and Joe Smith each gave up an earned run in the eighth, ninth and tenth innings respectively this afternoon against Seattle and in the bottom half of the tenth the Indians took back the lead, netting Joe Smith his second win of the season. Although Pestano blew the save today, back from the DL he’s slotted again into his usual set up/eighth inning role ahead of Chris Perez. Perez has struggled a tad of late, giving up a run today and blowing the save in his last appearance this weekend but his hold on the job remains secure.
In the same game, Tom Wilhelmsen blew a save of his own (his first of the year) in the ninth inning allowing a run to score via his own fielding error. On the season, Wilhelmsen’s strikeout rate (20%) is less than what we would expect thus far given his career (24.7% K%) but he’s still pitching to a 0.47 ERA and 2.24 FIP and remains in the upper half of closing options in fantasy baseball. Before the season I suspected Wilhelmsen to be a potential trade target and while that could still be a possibility, the Mariners are playing close to .500 ball and I’ve yet to hear any trade rumors/whispers. If anything were to happen however, Carter Capps and Charlie Furbush would look to take over.
Just one pitcher coming back from the DL to check velocity on, so I dug a little deeper into a few other players.
• One of favorite setup men, Vinnie Pestano, returned from the disabled list. His fastball velocity is off a couple mph from appearances earlier in the season.
We’re coming to an end of the series! We’ve pushed the consensus bullpen ranks over to the Bullpen Report guys, so they’ll have that to you soon. But for these four rankers, this episode is drawing to a halt. You can find all the updated ranks on your right, linked in that helpful little box.
The ranks, and the comments, have provided us with content for the coming weeks. Thank you for communicating which players are the most divisive. That allows us to know exactly which players we should be breaking down, RotoGraphs style. Add to that our timely coverage of players in the news, and we’re set.
Pitching changes on a dime though. While hitters give us their customary four or five plate appearances in a game, pitchers give us roughly five times that information every time they appear. So it’s fair that we break down every appearance for them and weight recent work heavily. And yet, every pitcher has a baseline, and we know how luck, park and weather factors can influence any one matchup. So we have to keep their careers in mind.
Earlier this month, I updated the second base tiered rankings and opined that Tier One consisted of Robinson Cano, Dustin Pedroia and Ian Kinsler. That’s not really a controversial grouping, especially given the three currently lead qualified second basemen across the league in wOBA. They’re three ducks in a row atop the stat sheets.
And fourth in wOBA is … Matt Carpenter?
Predicting the future performance of baseball players is a wildly frustrating endeavor. When projecting a hitter’s stat line, it’s impossible to account for the player having a BABIP that’s nowhere close to their career average. When projecting a pitcher, it’s hard to know when their HR/FB rate is going to swing drastically away from their career average. The shifts in “luck” make projecting seem like a fool’s errand at times.
But it may be even more frustrating when something within the player’s control changes completely. When predicting the future, you largely have to rely on the assumption that what the player puts into the equation will remain relatively the same. But of course that’s not the case. Hitters will lose plate discipline out of nowhere. Pitchers will lose the ability to induce swings and misses. It just happens. But it’s often very hard to know when those changes are going to happen.
Another example of the input changing is a shift in the mix of pitches a pitcher will use. Read the rest of this entry »
It’s easy to make buy low and sell high calls. Anyone could compare a player’s current season ranking with his preseason and blindly advise fantasy owners to acquire or trade away said player. While that advice sometimes does have value, perhaps more beneficial is identifying players you should not attempt to buy at a discount or trade away at an assumed profit. That is why we sometimes have the “Not a Sleeper, Not a Bust” segment on The Sleeper and the Bust podcast, as we highlight players who should not be purchased at a discount (and are therefore Not a Sleeper) or sold high (and are therefore Not a Bust). So sticking with the Not a Sleeper theme, this is why I am not buying B.J. Upton.
Today’s Roto Riteup aims to start your week off with magic and general deliciousness.
On today’s agenda:
1. Jake Odorizzi gets the call
2. Chris Archer, Alex Torres stuck in Triple-A
3. Here comes Jurickson Profar
4. Minor injury notes
• Well, the closer merry-go-round in Los Angeles seems to be getting more interesting by the day. Less than 24 hours removed from Kenley Jansen’s minor meltdown while trying to hold a close lead, he struggled in the eighth again. This time, Brandon League was called upon to try and put out the fire while wrapping up a multi-inning save. He did neither, allowing both inherited runners to score and allowing two of his own to cross the plate. LA Time beat writer Dylan Hernandez insinuated after that game that, had League snuck out of that jam, Matt Guerrier would have pitched the ninth, although it’s unlikely that was the plan before League entered.
Episode 14
Today’s episode of The Sleeper and the Bust stars yours truly and features RotoGraphs contributor J.P. Breen. We discuss a headline-making call-up, a struggling first-rounder and pitchers galore..
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @mikepodhorzer or @enosarris on Twitter and tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.
You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.
Approximately 39 min of joyous analysis.
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