Aw come on. I thought that was one of the better and more appropriate puns/play on words we could have used for Jurickson Profar, the latest rookie sensation to make a splash in the big leagues this season. Would you have preferred “Profar, So Good”? How about “Profar Away”? “A Bridge Profar”? Well how about “I Went To The Jurickson Store And They Were All Out of You”? I could probably continue this for a few more paragraphs, but all I’m really trying to do is distract you to the point where your enthusiasm for Profar’s arrival is tempered. Why? Because this isn’t going to last, people. Rein it in. As excited as you are to have Profar finally arrive, you need to relax because he is more than likely to be gone as quickly as he came. Read the rest of this entry »

Here at RotoGraphs, we receive a lot of would you trade/drop questions from readers. In response, we figure an article focusing on which players we are buying or selling might be helpful for the readership. So, let’s give this a shot. Let us know what you think in the comments.

Fantasy owners should have a decent grasp on their team by May. At this point in the year, sleepers have had a month to show they were worth a draft pick, and older players have shown signs of decline. While not perfect, both BABIP and FIP/xFIP can give you an idea of whether certain performances are sustainable going forward. On top of evaluating their own teams, fantasy owners can target buy-low players from other teams, making a move that will greatly impact the outcome of their leagues. Andrew Cashner and Marco Estrada may have gotten off to different starts, but neither player should be valued based strictly on their performances this season.

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It’s deep league waiver wire day, which is obviously the best day of the week. Apologies to my NL-Only league friends, only American Leaguers today.

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Today’s Roto Riteup celebrates the birth of T. Boone Pickens, whose home state of Oklahoma could really use some love right now.

On today’s agenda:
1. Carlos Ruiz can’t avoid the DL
2. Samuel Deduno heads to Minnesota
3. Logan Morrison rehabbing
4. Josh Johnson rehabbing

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• A day after blowing his third consecutive save chance, Jim Johnson pitched a scoreless tenth inning against the Yankees in a tie game this evening. Although it obviously wasn’t a save opportunity, Johnson was the pitcher of record when Nate McLouth hit the walk-off home run and before the game, Buck Showalter said that Johnson would still be used as the closer. While Johnson can’t really afford to blow another three consecutive saves, he’s still the man in the back of the bullpen with the support of his manager. Behind Johnson is Darren O’Day, who has been fantastic in 2013 (and 2012) with a 1.74 ERA, 3.56 FIP and a 9.58 K/9 on the season. O’Days control has left him a little this year with a 10.1 BB% after posting  a 5.3% BB% in 2012 and 6.8% in 2011 but if he can regress back to those normals this year, he should have the fancy peripherals to match the ERA.

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Episode 15
Today’s episode of The Sleeper and the Bust stars yours truly and features RotoGraphs editor Eno Sarris. We finish discussing our updated consensus rankings with the starting pitchers and outfielders. Oh, and don’t miss my Larry David impression!

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @mikepodhorzer or @enosarris on Twitter and tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Approximately 36 min of joyous analysis.

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It has been 40 starts for Jake Peavy since the start of 2012 and his ERA is right at 3.35. While that is a far cry away from his Cy Young caliber seasons in the mid-2000’s, his consistency and reliability has really propelled him to become an undervalued fantasy asset over the past two seasons. Since there is always a fear of injury around Peavy, prospective owners are sometimes weary to pull the trigger or draft Peavy, but I think that makes Peavy a great buy at this point.
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There were a pair of catchers caught violating Major League Baseball’s substance abuse policy this offseason but, because of the rather odd split between amphetamines and other drugs of abuse, Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz has 56 PAs in 16 games under his belt already this season while Yasmani Grandal is still a week away from joining the Padres for the first time this season.

Setting aside the issues I have with MLB’s differentiation between amphetamines and things like testosterone, Ruiz hasn’t exactly set the world on fire in his return from suspension, which probably helps those looking to target Grandal, since no one is looking to cash in on the next Chooch at this moment. Grandal is owned in just 3 percent of Yahoo! leagues and less than 0.5 percent of ESPN leagues, so there’s a very good chance he’s available. Those in two-catcher leagues should definitely look his way, since unlike most of the chaff on the wire, Grandal has a high ceiling and a decent shot of hitting it. Read the rest of this entry »

We’re going to do something a little different here. The Bullpen Report guys — Alan Harrison, Benjamin Pasinkoff and Colin Zarzycki — are knee-deep in every bullpen every night, just to update you. So they’re in a great position to rank relievers when it comes to 5×5 roto leagues.

So they’ve got the keys to the car, and now they get to wreck it.

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Yes, the sell highiest. The easiest way to identify buy low and sell high candidates among starting pitchers is to export the advanced tab of the leader board into Excel and then simply subtract the pitcher’s SIERA from his ERA. Sort and voilà, you now have your list of pitchers who are most outperforming and underperforming their SIERA marks. Of course, you shouldn’t blindly take that list as gospel, as some pitchers have proven that they can consistently post ERAs higher or lower than their SIERAs. But it’s the quickest way to generate a list of names for further analysis.

After performing this exercise, Matt Moore was not the biggest SIERA outperformer. But, given his name value and preseason draft cost, he is the one most worth shopping. He currently ranks eighth among all qualified starters in ERA outperformance, with a 4.11 SIERA versus a 2.29 ERA. While that alone should make him a sell high candidate, there are additional warning signs beneath the surface.

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