Updated Consensus Ranks: Relief Pitchers
We’re going to do something a little different here. The Bullpen Report guys — Alan Harrison, Benjamin Pasinkoff and Colin Zarzycki — are knee-deep in every bullpen every night, just to update you. So they’re in a great position to rank relievers when it comes to 5×5 roto leagues.
So they’ve got the keys to the car, and now they get to wreck it.
We all know reliever rankings have the shortest shelf life. One of these guys blows three saves in a row and he just completely falls off the rankings. And yet, even for established relievers that will survive all year, it’s useful to stack them up against each other. Because relievers do contribute in categories other than saves — if you have three Jim Johnsons and I have three Joe Nathans, you’re going to cede me around 60 strikeouts. That would be painful in the final calculation.
Who catches your eye today?
With the color-coding we hope to highlight the biggest movers. That definition changes as you follow the ranks down the list — players had to move more to register a color change as you near the bottom of the list. In this case, these new rankings were done by different people than the last rankings, so keep that in mind. These are rest-of-season rankings for 5×5 roto.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
List actually looks super solid on my first pass through guys, nice work.
My only gripe: it would be cool if it could go about twice as deep to help people in Holds leagues. It seems to me that FanGraph’s demographics are increasingly involved in those leagues which very much value the middle relievers.
You should see a holds rankings piece from Alan Harrison at some point, which should help flush that bit out. And I think the chart on the BR is good for that too.
Yea, I can post a holds rankings piece this week. Check back Thursday morning. Thanks for the suggestion.
Awesome. I’ve been waiting for a holds piece all year. There just isn’t anything out there. I imagine these rankings would change in holds leagues, as someone like Melancon may become more valuable because of his numbers, despite his low chances of becoming a closer (and conversely someone like Marmol..shudder…will have little value given the fact that his only plus is that he might become a closer someday.
I typically publish my “Scheming For Relief” column on Thursdays which revolves around middle relievers and holds.
Yes, a holds article will be valuable. Sometimes analysts forget that owners in holds leagues may not want a valuable holds guy to get promoted to closer when they rank.
I too am in a league that counts holds. As a result, I’d rank Melancon about 10 spots higher. And have Tanner Scheppers ranked.
Actually, I’d do that anyway, even for this list, which is biased for saves. Both of those pitchers have been dominating and are clear next-in-lines. And even in standard leagues, they will help with stats. The only negatives would be that the closers on their teams have been solid (no current possibility to become closer) and ROS factors.
I look forward to seeing the extended reliever rankings. I like those “scheming for relief” articles too.
Don’t publish too much on it though, as I can’t have the other owners in my holds league figuring this stuff out.
Great ranks overall, but why has Jim Johnson moved up after three blown saves this week?
Because the 1.5 months before that were stupid good and Rodney has shown no signs of being any kind of consistently descent. That 1 jump makes him green. Who is below him that you would rather have?
I’m sorry but Jansen is a top 10 CL not 28 and Freiri is top 15 as well
I’ve owned Frieri in a fantasy league for 2 years, and wouldn’t rate him anywhere near top 15. Love his deceptive windup. Hate his walks. Dude has work to do before he’s elite. What I can’t figure out is why Scioscia is using him for 4 and 5 out saves. You want the bases empty when this guy enters the game, considering his walkerish ways.
Jansen isn’t even a closer. The rankings obviously are incorporating the risk of him not being the guy — it doesn’t matter how good he is if he’s pitching the 8th inning and not the 9th.
If he is “officially” handed the job I am sure he would shoot up the ranks.
I do agree with you that Frieri though is criminally underrated. Yes the walks are scary (and keep him from having an elite WHIP) but the strikeout rate is ridiculous and he’s demonstrated an ability to post great ERA’s with his pitching style. And he’s got the job, and Ryan Madsen is nowhere close to returning. IMO they are factoring in way too much risk there. For example how is he that far below Holland, a guy with a similar high K / high BB profile?
Pretty sure he meant Casey
If he meant Casey he wouldn’t have said he was ranked 28?
Always surprised at the lack of love Janssen gets. I’d have him 8th without question.
Mark Melancon #43? I presume Saves are a huge criteria?
Dude has been nasty, even going back to his last-half of 2012. Great value at #43, in any event.
Solid list, guys.
CD
Of course saves are a huge criteria, it’s a closer ranking. Read the intro — this assumes 5×5 leagues. And Eno noted in the comments that a separate ranking would be released for holds leagues.
Yes, he did. *After* my post, Batpig. Relax.
Like I said, good list, guys. Melancon – when accounting for holds and performance – is higher than 43.
CD
It actually says “relief pitcher” rankings, not “closer” rankings.
Calmer than you are. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P5VT-ofxdh4
All of the consensus ranking articles are for 5×5 leagues.
You should add JZ’s rankings so we can enjoy 40 outraged comments denigrating your credibility and predicting the end of all that is good in the world.
Yup. Rankings look good but where’s the… panic? The excitement? The debate? The furor? Now they’re just plain old boring rankings 😉
surprised at the low ranking for Balfour (and also Frieri, but that was mentioned above).
You could do pretty well at an auction just buying the #15-#25 ranked closers and using your surplus to buy expensive hitters not named Josh Hamilton.
Or Matt Kemp.
Hey Guys,
I put out an OTB for a closer and one of the other owners has come back with an idea about Madson.
Assuming Madson is healthy what are the odds that he supplants Ernesto Frieri?
Thanks.
I would stay away. He’s already had multiple setbacks and now they are saying his return is “several weeks” away. In the meantime Frieri has dominant numbers and there is no reason to think he will lose the job to Madson even if/when he comes back healthy.
If you can get him for pennies on the dollar and stash him on the DL then sure, but I wouldn’t invest anything important in Madson at this point.
Thanks, Appreciate the response. Your points make sense.
Henderson and Parnell (4 wins!) finally getting some respect.
I don’t hate Parnell but I hope the wins didn’t factor into his ranking. Those were luck based, or as bad, based on blowing his own save at least twice. That’s not a feature
1,5,10,14,21,22,23 in my 6×6 roto all reliever strategy…not bad
I’m in a league with 9 pitcher slots, no destination for starter or reliever. If I stockpile top line relievers paired with some big name starters I have (Zimmermann price sabathia) do you think this strategy would be more effective than a more traditional pitching lineup? I currently start 5 sp and 4 rp
You’re asking if pairing top relievers with top starters is a good strategy? Is that a serious question?
How is this different from the “traditional” pitching lineup strategy? Isn’t the goal to always have good pitchers?
That’s in a standard scoring league on espn
If you take BOTH Joel Peralta and Vinnie Pestano combined…what percentage chance is there that at least one of them overtakes the respective closers on their teams and wins the closer job?
Thanks.
Grilli should be MINIMUM top-3