Yasmani Grandal: Waiver Wire
There were a pair of catchers caught violating Major League Baseball’s substance abuse policy this offseason but, because of the rather odd split between amphetamines and other drugs of abuse, Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz has 56 PAs in 16 games under his belt already this season while Yasmani Grandal is still a week away from joining the Padres for the first time this season.
Setting aside the issues I have with MLB’s differentiation between amphetamines and things like testosterone, Ruiz hasn’t exactly set the world on fire in his return from suspension, which probably helps those looking to target Grandal, since no one is looking to cash in on the next Chooch at this moment. Grandal is owned in just 3 percent of Yahoo! leagues and less than 0.5 percent of ESPN leagues, so there’s a very good chance he’s available. Those in two-catcher leagues should definitely look his way, since unlike most of the chaff on the wire, Grandal has a high ceiling and a decent shot of hitting it.
There isn’t much of an upside to losing 50 games from a catcher many were preliminarily targeting as a strong sleeper option, but the time off did give Grandal a chance to fully rest the oblique injury that sidelined him and some inflammation in his finger that apparently bothered him greatly at the end of last season. The extra time off should mean that come May 28, Grandal will be healthy and ready to contribute immediately.
Though an .821 OPS is hardly a terrible mark for a catcher, Grandal’s performance from the left side was notably lower than his performance from the right side, where he posted a .971 OPS. I’m somewhat skeptical of his ability to post an OPS over .900 from both sides of the plate over the course of 100 games, healthy fingers or not, but a better grip on the bat may help mitigate what regression does show up when he starts seeing consistent time behind the plate. His talent is undeniable, but PETCO Park does him absolutely no favors with respect to his slugging percentage and home run potential.
The biggest thing keeping me from recommending Grandal in all but the shallowest formats is the unknown distribution of playing time. It’s a virtual certainty that Grandal will see consistent time against left-handed pitching as current starter Nick Hundley is being dominated to the tune of an .111/.200/.111 line in 40 PA. If Grandal can hit anywhere close to the .308/.356/.615 line he had against portsiders last year, which will be a substantial upgrade for the Padres. What happens with a right-hander is far less cut and dry, however. Grandal hit them reasonably well last season, with a .293/.407/.414 line against them in 167 PA, but Hundley has proven that he can hit them this season with a .289/.322/.506 split so far in 91 PA.
My hunch is that we’ll see something close to a strict platoon split for the next few weeks with Grandal starting against left-handed starters and Hundley covering against right-handed starters. It’s a good way to get Grandal a relatively consistent number of at-bats without throwing him right back into the grind of a full major league season since he hasn’t had the benefit of spring training to prepare him. This may even be good news for his head-to-head value, since PETCO plays only a hair below average for right-handed power hitters, while it suppresses left-handed home runs far more noticeably. Instead of getting his second-rate production, owners are likely – for better or worse – to either see Grandal at his best or not at all. It does mean that he can’t be the sole catcher on a roster yet, but I wouldn’t drop any established catcher for him, even with the current struggles of someone like Jonathan Lucroy.
Dan enjoys black tea, imperial IPAs, and any competition that can be loosely judged a sport. Follow him on Twitter.
This may be silly but you’d rather have Salty over Grandal ROS, right? JS has been mashing in May and Hundley is still lurking in San Diego so I don’t know if Grandal would be useful in one catcher leagues for a while.
For the time being, yeah, I’d keep Salty. Once Grandal gets the job full-time, it might be worth reevaluating, but that’ll be a few weeks at the earliest.
Do you have a thought on Grandal vs. Zunino in a dynasty league?
I very much wish I knew when Zunino was going to come up, but the Mariners are a bit of a mystery to me. My inclination is to stick with Zunino (I’m actually making this same choice in a deep keeper) at least until Grandal has a stranglehold on the playing time.
What about someone who’s not yet established, but has equal upside and is struggling, namely Jesus Montero?
That’s a pretty tempting switch. If you have another piece to drop so that you’re not bereft of a catcher for a week and have someone to slot in when Grandal is on the bench, that’s the direction I’d go. If it’s a straight swap, I’m less keen on it, but it’s not the worst idea in the world.
For anyone to answer: How much longer can I expect Miguel Montero to be terrible? Thanks.
I dropped Montero yesterday for Grandal myself and no, I don’t have another catcher on my roster.
I’m holding on to Montero. His suckitude is almost all batted-ball driven. BABIP is about a hundred points lower than normal. Ks, walks, and swing rates are consistent from prior years.
A number of his scouting reports say his left-handed swing is much better than his right-handed swing. So maybe those 2012 splits were just an aberration on a small sample?
It’s certainly possible. As much as I trust the scouting reports, and they’re probably not wrong, I’ll be interested to see how things look after a year’s worth of plate appearances.
yasmani is born lefty.
Reading the article I was planning on asking if I should drop Lucroy to pick up Grandal, good thing I read all the way to the end. Either would be a back up for Mauer. I’ll keep an eye on Grandal
Listen, drop Lucroy in a second for Grandal. Grandal will be top 10 Catcher the rest of the way, probably top 5 in the 2nd half.
He’s being seriously underrated; the best player the Padres got for Mat Latos.
There is a lot of talk about the Petco factor for Grandal, but the demensions have changed this year with the fence moving in. Not sure of the effect as the sample size is probably to small, but the negative park factor shouldnt be as bad this year as last. Also, Hundley has been a disaster the last month so unless he starts hitting like he did the first 3 weeks of the season, I dont see the Padres sticking with him for very long.
It’s not as dire as it was, but it’s still suppressing left-handed power. Lefties only have a 71 home run park factor there right now, and while it may improve in warmer weather, Coors Field it ain’t.
Should I consider dumping Salvador Perez for Grandal? I’ve been waiting and waiting on Perez, but other than a good avg he’s an empty suit. No power, inconsistent line up position limiting effectiveness in the counting stats. Is Grandal an upgrade over Perez, Doumit, Ellis, Martin?
have the same problem. and the second i hear grandals a few days away, i’m not even hesitating to make that switch. had grandal last year and was as happy as can be with him as my #1 catcher. once he plays everyday, he’s a top 5 catcher without question. has Santana type talent. incredible plate discipline with a little less power than santana.
i can’t even believe hundley vs Grandal for PT is even a debate. 5 years ago Grandal was looked at as the best offensive catcher to come out of college since Mauer. this guy is an advanced cleanup type hitter that happens to play catcher. if you prorate his career stats to the average catcher season which is about 475 ab’s. you get 70R 20HR 90 RBI 75BB 95K about a .300 avg and .865 ops. and thats from a 24 year old with less than 200 career abs. Hundley is a bum, no more no less. if he even steals more than a start per week at the expense of Grandal, that’s terrible. Hundley has a career slash line of .238/.297/.390/.687 line. grandal has a .297/.394/.469/.863 line. his OBP is a hundred pts higher. thats a 200 pt advantage in OPS. Hundley is and should be a backup to someone with Grandals offensive potential. plus Grandal should be getting at least 100 ab’s at 1st because that bat plays anywhere. just saying.
Mauer was drafted out of high school. Also, trying to project his stat line in 200 career abs over a full season is idiotic. You’re either new to fangraphs and the whole sabermetrics thing…or you’ve somehow completely missed the point.
Hey Dan,
On the topic of catchers, would you drop Miguel Montero for McCann? I keep waiting for Montero to rebound, and it would feel good to drop him, but I am slightly worried about the situation with Gattis in Atlanta.
Thanks!
Yes, I would make that move immediately.
Yeah, I’d pick up McCann. Gattis is going to get his PAs, but his bat plays at positions other than catcher, so my guess is that the Braves will find creative ways to keep both bats in the order rather than sub one for the other.
Okay. Thank you!
Avila, dead to me. Grandal in.
Should I drop Doumit for Grandal?
I’ll admit a passive dislike for Doumit which might color my view here, but I would. Doumit’s playing time is just as insecure as Grandal’s, but where Grandal may earn himself the full-time job, the Twins aren’t likely to promise Doumit consistent PAs if people like Collabello and Parmelee start hitting.
Should I drop Miguel Montero for Grandal? Salty is available on the waiver as well but I feel like Montero has to pick it up at some point right?
to anyone: i have a spot currently opened on my roster (supposed to be for adam eaton returning from the DL) but since he’s been setback now should i pick up grandal? keep in mind i have jurickson profar as my starting second baseman so i may have to get someone else assuming he gets sent back down. Once he comes back i could drop hosmer and move santana from catcher to first and have grandal start.. is that an advisable move? thanks
I’m in a dynasty league with 2 catcher spots, I have Buck and Evan Gattis. Should i stash Grandel as most likely, Buck may not have the same 2nd half or start lose time with d’Arnaud coming up?