Episode 12
Today’s episode of The Sleeper and the Bust stars yours truly and features RotoGraphs editor Eno Sarris. We discuss the updated consensus rankings at catcher and shortstop and answered our first Twitter question.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @mikepodhorzer or @enosarris on Twitter and tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Approximately 44 min of joyous analysis.

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Chris Carter (ESPN: 21.7 percent owned; Yahoo!: 23 percent owned)

In the minor leagues, he never had a full season OPS under .800, nor has he hit fewer than 10 home runs in a season, yet Chris Carter has also never played even half a season in the majors. His power is not really up for discussion; he has hit at every level, including the majors, but his ability to contribute beyond 25-30 home runs a season is what has kept him from getting a serious shot in the majors until this year.

The move to Houston in the offseason was good for Carter’s value in a couple ways. First, unlike Oakland, who has designs on competing for the AL West title again this year, the Astros have a greater incentive to see what he can do given a full year of playing time than they have to sit him if he hits an extended cold spell. Second, given that the vast majority of Carter’s value comes from his HR and RBI potential, heading from one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the majors to a far more hitter-friendly one should be a boon for his value. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s time for the updated catcher ranks.

I do actually like the process of ranking players. It’s enjoyable to weight different inputs, and consider a player’s long-term track record as well as their short-term work. I like taking a look at the few things that stabilize quickly — contact and swing rates, and (soon) batted ball mix — and looking for legitimate change in the early season.

But it does seem to get us all riled up. And that can be exhausting.

It’s cool, it’s the way of the world. But the number one thing that seems to drive a lot of the discussion is power. And almost every power metric takes a long time to stabilize. Hit a couple of home runs and suddenly your ISO looks fine. Drive a few balls and your batted ball distance improves. As the weather improves, the balls go further.

So it’s not that worrisome to me that Jonathan Lucroy’s power is down. You didn’t own him for power anyway, and he’s still just as likely to hit ten out. Brian McCann doesn’t jump in the rankings because of the homers — well not because of the homers themselves, but because they represent possibly decent health — and Miguel Montero looks to be about the same as ever (with a ground-ball asterisk).

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Earlier this year, I finally derived an official equation that highlighted the value batted ball distance has and its strong correlation with home runs. While we still don’t have a lot of vital information, such as how quickly batted ball distance stabilizes, it is probably still worth taking a peek at the leader board. It might very well explain some of the early home run spikes. Whether or not the hitter will continue hitting balls that far on average is unknown, but it will at least validate what has already happened.

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It’s time to update the rankings!

Hopefully these rankings will allow you to find your own buy-low and sell-high opportunities. The disagreements between our different rankers should help. Jeff Zimmerman’s rankings are largely built upon a mix of Steamer and ZiPs, Zach Sanders has his own secret sauce, and Mike Podhorzer and I are a little more intuitive, even while we both use the projections as a basis. Hopefully we are representative of the different types of fantasy managers out there.

The first basemen shuffled the cards around a bit, but the elite are still the elite… except for one Anthony Rizzo, who is zooming up the ranks. To the point where we are wondering if he’s the number one fantasy first baseman going forward. Well, someone knew it was coming, and yet that same someone wouldn’t yet make Rizzo the number one guy. There are still the matter of his strikeouts and his final batting average.

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Today’s Roto Riteup was written while the latest Nerdist podcast (warning: language) episode played through the speakers. The guest for that particular episode was fellow South Korean Steven Yeun, star on The Walking Dead, but perhaps more recognizable as being a former Kalamazoo, Michigan resident. Perhaps one day Steven, Adam Rosales, and the present author will meet up. A man can dream.

On today’s agenda:
1. Justin Masterson is maddening
2. The return of Neil Walker
3. Curtis Granderson may return today
4. Aaron Hicks flashes his power
5. Austin Jackson and Avisail Garcia
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• Edward Mujica recorded his 10th save of the season tonight, throwing a perfect ninth inning against the Mets. In 15 innings pitched Mujica has struck out 15 batters and continued his strike throwing ways by only issuing one free pass, good for a 15.00 K/BB. Not bad. It goes without say that there is regression coming for Mujica as he won’t maintain a .172 BABIP or a 96.8% Left On Base Percentage all year, but you can’t deny he’s pitching quite well with a particularly strong grip on the roll at the moment. Behind Mujica for saves is the young Trevor Rosenthal, who after struggling earlier this season has brought his ERA down to 2.84 and after two strikeouts tonight, he now has 27 in 19 innings pitched with only five walks.  As the eighth inning guy in St. Louis, Rosenthal is a great source for holds who can help your ratios and strikeout totals, and if anything were to happen to Mujica, he’d see the ninth inning again.

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Another few days, a few more injuries. I have three pitchers coming off the DL to examine. Also, I am going to look at a few players dealing with injuries.

• Francisco Liriano’s first start was outstanding with a 9 Ks in 5.1 innings. His velocity was consistent with previous seasons.

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Everyone knows Anthony Rizzo is one of the premier young first baseman in the league today, saying such is certainly not stepping out on any limbs. The question of how high he should be valued is a worthwhile discussion, however. As a first baseman, he is supposed to mash. A .280 average and .352 on base percentage are far from elite, but his home run prowess and sudden willingness to run may make Rizzo one of the top fantasy players in baseball this season.
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In professional golf, Saturday is dubbed “Moving Day” because players must go low to give themselves a chance on the final day. Without positioning themselves near the top of the leaderboard with a good round on Saturday, it becomes very difficult to challenge for a championship.

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