Episode 13
Today’s episode of The Sleeper and the Bust stars yours truly and features RotoGraphs editor Eno Sarris. We continue our discussion of the updated consensus rankings, this time with the middle infielders and third base.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @mikepodhorzer or @enosarris on Twitter and tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

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Approximately 42 min of joyous analysis.

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Should you short stop or just stop short? This year the position feels like it’s an injury magnet, even if the evidence doesn’t necessarily point to shortstops being injured more often.

But there you have Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes and Derek Jeter dropping because of injury. That’s allowed players that are not even performing well — Asdrubal Cabrera, I’m looking at you — to move up just because they didn’t go down with an ailment. Health is a thing. Troy Tulowitzki always had number one talent, and his health makes him number one now.

That isn’t to say that there aren’t any superlative performances that have pushed the needle. Ian Desmond is proving last year was no fluke, Josh Rutledge has shown enough power and speed for most of us to believe, and Jean Segura — though not a 25 homer hitting shortstop — has exceeded even our semi-lofty expectations. Maybe Andrelton Simmons will be next.

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A little light on the injury news front. I will look at one pitcher coming back from the DL and the Zone% values for DL pitchers.

• Zack Greinke returned from his post fight DL trip. He struck out four batters, walked none in just over five innings of work. A couple of signs point to him not being 100% though. First, the 29-year-old’s average fastball is down 1.5 mph from last season.

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Signing with the Tampa Bay Rays can immediately boost a player’s stock. Because the Rays have had success with free-agent additions in recent years, and are considered one of the game’s smarter franchises, fantasy owners tend to take notice when they bring a player to town. The track record of success does justify the excitement. In recent seasons, the Rays have turned around Kyle Farnsworth, Casey Kotchman, Fernando Rodney, Carlos Pena and Ben Zobrist, to name a few. Guys who had little to no fantasy value in the past have been key contributors on fantasy rosters with the Rays. This offseason was no different. Roberto Hernandez received some Rays’ buzz immediately after he signed, and has shown some signs of life recently. While Kelly Johnson rightfully avoided that excitement, he may also deserve a look in fantasy leagues.

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Over his past 28 starts, Mike Minor has a 2.75 ERA. That is just under a full season worth of starts with a miniscule ERA, so I think it is about time Minor is taken a bit more seriously. Even amongst the Braves crowd, and I know because I am entrenched in it, he is looked at among many as a back end type who is on a hot streak. People are just waiting for him to explode and revert back to the Minor of old.

Given his peripheral metrics, there is reason to expect that to happen. His BABIP has been suppressed over the past two seasons, with a .252 mark last year and a .239 this season. While those numbers are unsustainable, the fact that he allows the most fly balls in baseball should let him continue to post low BABIPs even with high home run rates.
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With the updated catcher rankings recently released and thoughts beginning to turn towards another set of tiers being issued at the end of the month, it’s time to look at a couple of backstops who had us a bit concerned after a tough month of April. A highly coveted choice on draft day, Salvador Perez was expected to do great things this year but struggled mightily at the plate to open the season, leaving many who grabbed him relatively early in their draft (eighth round or so) wondering if they made a mistake. Meanwhile, A.J. Ellis, who had an outstanding breakout season last year, was also counted on to produce with some consistency at the plate, but failed to show any semblance of power he once displayed and also struggled to hit with any regularity. But with the calendar flipping to May, both have caught fire and those owners who were ready to hit the panic button can start to breathe a little easier. Read the rest of this entry »

I jinxed it. Got all fat and happy with a couple of weeks of success and trusted my gut a little too much. Straily fail, Marcum (continued) fail, Slowey mega-fail. Do I still believe in these guys? Not really with Slowey, but I stand by the fact that Straily has plus talent (though he’ll be sent down soon after another bad start Wednesday), while Marcum is still working his way through myriad problems. Onward and upward, streamers. Trust me one more time, as we may have a format change for next week. (And hey, if you want some confirmation I’m not completely full of it, I AM doing well in Fangraphs the Game for starting pitchers. It’s something, I guess.) As always, I aim for 50/25/15/5 ownership, roughly, when the streamers available allow.

Edwin Jackson (25% owned) – I recommended him last weekend and he did us no harm, so let’s roll the dice again, shall we? The Mets strike out at an above-average clip and are a below-average offense. They do take a fair number of walks, though, and Jackson’s control is yet to come into form this season (9.9% walk rate, his highest since 2007). Still, Jackson gets the strikeouts you seek and has a 3.50 FIP and 3.70 xFIP sitting below his 6.02 ERA. He’s not the best bet for a win thanks to anemic run support from his Cubs, but he should be safe for the ratios and punch-outs.
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Houston Astros outfield prospect George Springer has some of the loudest tools in the minor leagues. He’s a fantastic athlete with a combination of power and speed that’s rarely found in a player drafted out of college – and a cold weather college at that. Springer has put up some exciting numbers as a professional and offers hope for both fantasy owners and an Astros franchise that really could use some good news.

The Breakdown

The New Britain, Connecticut native attended Avon Old Farms School. Avon has been one of the better high school baseball programs in the state in recent years and has sent many players on to Division 1 programs. The Minnesota Twins were intrigued by the raw tools and gave the outfielder a look in the 48th round. Springer didn’t sign and ended up going to UConn as expected. He hit well as a freshman (.358/.454/.679 with 16 home runs) and never stopped hitting for the Huskies. Scouts flocked to the Storrs campus to see Springer along with teammates Mike Olt, Matt Barnes and Nick Ahmed. Springer didn’t disappoint and then also wowed scouting directors on the Cape. He had worked his way into consideration for the top half of the 1st round as a Junior, and the Astros ended up nabbing him with the 11th overall pick. Springer destroyed the California League last season to the tune of .316/.398/.557. He’s off to one of the best starts of any minor leaguer this year with 13 home runs already for Double-A Corpus Christi. The flip side of the coin here is that both those leagues are hitter-friendly and strikeouts have been frequent. Read the rest of this entry »

Let’s take another dive into the free agent pool,
With the hopes of finding a hitter with more than one tool,
So you don’t end up looking like a fool.

You may find more of Pod’s Poems on the forthcoming PoemGraphs, where we calculate RARP (rhymes above replacement poet) and discuss the ridiculousness of haikus (really, a poem that doesn’t rhyme? that’s NOT a poem).

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Third base is slowly creeping up on first base in terms of production. At least in standard twelve team leagues, look at the elite guys. One of them used to be an elite first baseman even. Where you might suffer a little in power when compared to the first basemen, you add a little speed with David Wright and Chase Headley. And where some first basemen make you choose between power and batting average, third base has some guys like Adrian Beltre and Aramis Ramirez that are good in both categories.

That said, once you drop out of the top ten, there’s been plenty of movement. New stars are on the rise — Manny Machado and Nolan Arenado skyrocketed — and some young players have cemented their status — Kyle Seager and Josh Donaldson come to mind. Mike Moustakas is missing some power, Ryan Zimmerman can’t get healthy, and Hanley Ramirez boasts both problems.

Still, this is a position that is likely owned into the low 20s even in twelve-team mixed leagues, because third basemen make decent corner infield fillers, and occasionally even man a utility spot.

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