In 2012, the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen proved two things: the closer job is, as always, subject to change; and it’s not especially difficult to protect a three-run lead for three outs.

When the Jays dealt prospect Nestor Molina to the Chicago White Sox for Sergio Santos in the offseason, the closer job looked to belong to the former Blue Jays’ minor league shortstop. Five innings and two blown saves later and Santos was done for the year due to shoulder surgery. Enter Casey Janssen, a perfectly adequate but unsensational reliever to that point in his career (he was coming off a 2.26 ERA/2.45 FIP season in 2011 but had been merely league average across four seasons prior to that).

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Times are changing for the Yankees bullpen, which will officially be without Mariano Rivera starting next season. The future Hall of Famer confirmed the 2013 season will be his last as a player over the weekend, but the club and its fans got a sneak preview of what life without Mo will be like last summer. Rivera threw only 8.1 innings before blowing his knee in a freak (fly ball!) shagging injury in early-May. Rafael Soriano stepped in and saved 42 games, but was allowed to leave as a free agent this winter.

For now, the team’s bullpen will resemble their bullpens of the last three or four years. There is a new face or two and a player coming back from injury, but the core is unchanged. That’s generally good news for fantasy owners.

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The AL East is up for grabs this year, and the Tampa Bay Rays are poised to compete once again. This year, the team has sacrificed James Shields and Wade Davis in hopes of extending their window to compete, but have also revamped most of their infield. There’s some value in the 2013 Rays infield, so long as a fantasy owner keeps expectations low … or gets Evan Longoria.

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Back when we launched FG+ earlier this year, I included a table that put dollar values on players for year one and future year ottoneu leagues. Since then, I have mentioned a few times that I wanted to refresh those values with new projections.

Well, I have auctions coming up the next two weekends and finally got my act together to get my spreadsheets in shape; today, I release them into the wild!

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Last night, I participated in the other division of expert drafts, Tout Wars. If you recall, in mid-February I partook in the LABR mixed online draft league for the second year after its inaugural 2012 season. Not surprisingly, Tout Wars wanted a piece of the online snake draft action as well and started up their own version this year. When I received the invite to take part in Tout Wars, I was super excited, as it was my goal since I started my fantasy baseball writing career. The format is essentially the same as LABR, with one big difference — it counts OBP instead of AVG. It is a 15-team league with the standard 23-man rosters and a 4 man bench. The reserve roster is smaller than the six allowed in LABR. Interestingly, and strangely, Eno Sarris is also a member of the league. Without further ado, let’s see how I did.

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As much as I’m sure we’re all enjoying the WBC, I humbly suggest that you go and purchase the newest StarCraft II expansion, Heart of the Swarm. Given that I am 100% South Korean, it is my duty to inform you that the game is now live here in North America.
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Here are a couple of good articles related to injuries. The first is by Doug Thorburn at Baseball Prospectus where he looks at mechanics, injuries and velocity loss. The second article examines how the White Sox have been able to keep a healthy pitching staff over the years.

Recent injury data

 • Zack Greinke is experiencing some elbow issues and is headed to L.A. for some tests. No reason to draft or pay full value for him until his status has cleared up.

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The Indians’ outfield underperformed last season, posting a combined .315 wOBA and only hitting 44 home runs. Such a lack of production led to a major overhaul. Shin-Soo Choo was shipped to in-state foe Cincinnati in a three-team trade that brought Drew Stubbs (amongst others) to Cleveland, the club chose to part ways with Johnny Damon and Shelley Duncan, and the Indians also dipped into the free agent market by signing Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher to multi-year deals.

The flurry of transactions should result in an improved offense for the Indians for fantasy owners.

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Last week was all about the consensus ranks. This week, you’ll see some tiered ranks as we also try to finish up the depth chart discussion. But before we move on too quickly, I thought it would be interesting and informative for me to pick out the players that I liked and disliked more than the other analysts involved in the consensus ranks. Hopefully I’ll have a short, concise reason for my rankings in each case. Hopefully.

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It’s so tempting when discussing the Reds rotation to gloss over the front end in favor of Aroldis Chapman. He’s definitely the dominant storyline with this team, but whether he becomes a dominant starter is far less clear. Thankfully for the Reds, they aren’t counting on him to lead the rotation, just to fall in behind Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos, who are underrated as a top-of-the-rotation pair. There are a few pairs I like better – Clayton Kershaw/ Zack Greinke and Stephen Strasburg/Gio Gonzalez chiefly among them – but the Reds are hardly wanting for quality with those two.

Projected Rotation

Johnny Cueto
Mat Latos
Aroldis Chapman
Homer Bailey
Bronson Arroyo

Waiting in the Wings

Mike Leake
Tony Cingrani
Armando Galarraga Read the rest of this entry »