My Tout Wars Team
Last night, I participated in the other division of expert drafts, Tout Wars. If you recall, in mid-February I partook in the LABR mixed online draft league for the second year after its inaugural 2012 season. Not surprisingly, Tout Wars wanted a piece of the online snake draft action as well and started up their own version this year. When I received the invite to take part in Tout Wars, I was super excited, as it was my goal since I started my fantasy baseball writing career. The format is essentially the same as LABR, with one big difference — it counts OBP instead of AVG. It is a 15-team league with the standard 23-man rosters and a 4 man bench. The reserve roster is smaller than the six allowed in LABR. Interestingly, and strangely, Eno Sarris is also a member of the league. Without further ado, let’s see how I did.
But before I jump ahead to my team, there were two questions I had heading into this draft. First, I always use ADP data, as you are well aware. But, there is no ADP information available for a 15-team OBP league. So do I still use the NFBC data in which owners were drafting players based on their batting average? I decided to add the ADP data to my spreadsheet anyway just in case, as at the very least, it should come in handy for pitchers.
The other question I had was whether the members of Tout Wars would accurately make the valuation changes necessary given the change in stat category. Obviously, I had to assume that everyone would be drafting properly and the selection of players would reflect the use of OBP instead of AVG.
So with those questions out of the way, let’s finally get into the drafting fun. The lack of truly reliable ADP did make it somewhat challenging. There were times when I wasn’t sure if it was too early to take a player and whether I would be able to snag him the following round. There were times when less obvious players enjoyed a value boost from the use of OBP that I wasn’t sure everyone else would be keen on. Do I let the player sit atop my rankings for a while or just draft him, potentially eating up my potential for profit?
From the very beginning, it was pretty obvious that a handful of owners were drafting as if it were a traditional 5×5 league that uses AVG instead of OBP. Not all the owners of course, as many of them made picks that would only be made in an OBP league. Other picks just made me scratch my head — they were questionable even in a traditional 5×5, but the switch to OBP made the selections even stranger.
So you should know my strategy by now — lots of hitting early, draft a pitcher or two late in the first 10 rounds, finish up my hitting, and then fill up the rest of my pitching staff and reserve list with my breakout candidates and sleepers, assuming I will hit on a few. I think it worked out beautifully and am quite happy with my team, especially my offense. Let’s see if you agree.
Oh, I picked 7th.
My Winning Squad (Round):
C: Yadier Molina (7)
C: Chris Iannetta (21)
I really wanted and expected to draft Mike Napoli here, but he went with the first pick in the 7th round, so I settled on Molina. Iannetta, who I already apparently like more in traditional 5×5, gets a huge boost from the switch to OBP.
1B: Joey Votto (1)
Would have been by far the OBP leader in baseball if he didn’t get hurt last year. I was debating between he and Prince Fielder, but I had Votto worth a couple bucks more and although he’s probably a bigger risk due to the injury factor, I think he has some more upside to my projection than Fielder does.
3B: Kevin Youkilis (15)
Not the OBP monster he used to be, but remains in a good situation in the middle of the Yankees order. I had keyed in on drafting Mark Reynolds, since at the time I wanted more power, but he was literally taken the pick before me.
CI: Chris Carter (17)
A perfect example of not knowing how long I could wait to draft him. His ADP was something ridiculous like the 24th round, but predictably he has been drafted within a huge range. When I took him, Eno was annoyed, which makes me believe he would not have lasted much longer. Once again, he gets a nice boost from the switch to OBP and provides me with what I had wanted to get from Reynolds.
2B: Ian Kinsler (2)
Should have a pretty solid OBP for a second baseman. Robinson Cano actually gets hurt a lot from the category switch and so I had Kinsler valued just a buck and a half less.
SS: Derek Jeter (12)
Shortstops tended to get drafted much earlier here, with the move to OBP seemingly being ignored. The options thinned quickly, but Jeter lasted a while and provides a little of everything, while offering one of the best OBP marks at the position.
MI: Chase Utley (8)
Very possibly too early on Utley, but he also gets a nice boost from OBP and we haven’t heard of any injury issues at all so far. I feel quite optimistic that he will record the most at-bats he has since 2009.
OF: Matt Holliday (3)
Old boring vet? I seem to draft him in a lot of leagues every year. Consistently reliable and a strong 4-category performer.
OF: Desmond Jennings (4)
Lots of excitement and upside here. He has shown some excellent walk rates in the minors, so with OBP the category, no need to concern yourself with a potential .250 average. A 15-40 season is well within reach.
OF: Shin-Soo Choo (5)
One of the biggest beneficiaries of the switch to OBP. It’s funny because he has typically been overvalued in all the leagues I have drafted in so far, but with a career .381 OBP and a move to a much more hitter friendly venue, he’s an underrated strong option.
OF: Carlos Gomez (14)
Yes, the OBP will suck, but I had him valued as an 8th rounder, so I could not just keep passing him up. Initially, I didn’t want to draft another outfielder, but as he continued to sit atop my rankings, eventually I was forced to cave for that potential 20-40 season.
OF: Justin Ruggiano (16)
A Podhorzer team wouldn’t be complete with Ruggiano on it. I drafted him in the 18th round in the LABR league, and his value didn’t change much from OBP. Maybe I could have waited another round or two, but at that point in the draft, no one screamed to me that they had to be drafted.
U: Lorenzo Cain (20)
How he lasted until the 20th, I do not know. I didn’t have any intention of drafting another power/speed combo guy, but the opportunity presented itself and I simply could not pass up on the value.
P: C.C. Sabathia (6)
Round six for a pitcher?! I know, I know. Early on, I was considering really diverting from my strategy and drafting Cliff Lee if he fell a little further. That didn’t happen and Sabathia’s name kept staring at me in the face from atop my rankings. I felt maybe I should take a near-ace for a change so my pitching staff has at least one 200-inning guy. Of course, he has old age and injury issues of his own, but that’s why he fell all the way to the ninth pick of the sixth round to begin with. Crossing my fingers he is completely healthy and remains so all season.
P: Tim Lincecum (9)
I was able to wait another round to grab Lincecum this time after selecting him in the 8th in LABR. I had no idea everyone was this down on him. Heck, Roy Halladay seems to be going a lot earlier in every draft (he went in the 4th in this one) and he is much older and actually dealt with injuries last year. I think Lincecum’s chances for a bounce back are much, much greater.
P: Dan Haren (10)
Why stop at just Lincecum as a rebound candidate when I could pair him with another in the form of Haren?! I will talk about Haren more in a future “Pod’s Picks” posting, but bottom line is the move to the National League combined with better luck should lead to a rebound.
P: Sergio Romo (11)
P: Glen Perkins (13)
As the various closer runs were occurring, I avoided them and just picked up the best of what was left. I am happy with these two.
P: Matt Garza (18)
Yes, he’s injured and will likely miss the first month. But, 18th round?! I simply couldn’t pass that up, especially since we have an unlimited DL, so I could immediately replace him.
P: Andrew Cashner (19)
Like Ruggiano’s appearance above, this wouldn’t be a proper Pod team without Cashner on it. If he does not join every one of my teams this season, you are given my permission to stop reading my articles, because clearly I messed up. He now might be ready for opening day, so his price could start creeping up.
P: Trevor Bauer (23)
The same spot I plucked him in LABR. This late, it’s really just an upside and hope pick. I think he will greatly benefit from the expected superb outfield defense in Cleveland.
P: Chad Billingsley (24)
Similar to my thought process regarding Garza, I had no interest in Billingsley in the teen rounds, but when you get into round 24, I simply had to take a shot. I have no expectations of a full season, but if he can pitch well until he needs that imminent TJ surgery, then I’ll be happy.
BN: Drew Stubbs (22)
BN: Frank Francisco (25)
BN: Chris Archer (26)
BN: Wily Peralta (27)
I never thought Drew Stubbs would end up on any of my teams, ever, but as he still remained out there in round 22, I simply had to add him to my bench before even filling my active roster. I have him valued the same as Cain at nearly $10, and trust me, I’m not a Stubbs fan. I keep adding Franky Frank to my teams as well. If he is actually healthy, I think he will bounce back and close games…successfully. If not, to free agency he goes and nothing lost.
Archer and Peralta are some of my sleeper names with good strikeout potential. I drafted Peralta’s competition Mark Rogers in LABR and generally prefer him, but to my shock, another owner liked Rogers’ upside just as much as I did and scooped him up in the 24th round.
Overall, I am excited about my offense, though with a small bench and only one bench hitter, dealing with injuries is going to be fun. My pitching, as usual, is the big question. Like my LABR team’s staff, it has big upside, but lots of question marks.
Okay, I’m done, now rip me apart!
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
Love the Votto and Holliday and Choo picks in this format. Jennings might be have a crappy OBP, but will be decent all around. A lot of bounce back pitchers I see. Some injury risks is my biggest takeaway with Youk, Kinsler, Choo. But a solid team. Good luck.
don’t love the pitching staff but you’ll get Ks that’s for sure!
Utley and Carter were targets of mine, and I thought Utley would last a bit longer. Nice pick with both.
I honestly didn’t weight the OBP vs BA change too heavily, but after looking at my draft results, I was happy to grab some solid OBP guys in Craig, McCann, Stanton will walk a ton this year, Gordon, Swisher and Murphy.
I am just rooting for an injury in the STL outfield now to enable Tavares to get some playing time.
Good luck!
Ray
I like it overall. Votto over Fielder seems like an easy call with this setup.
I think your pitching could be pretty ugly though even if Lincecum does bounce back but that could just be because I think there is no chance Bauer is going to be worth starting at any point in the year and no chance that Billingsley stays healthy and I’m dubious about Garza not missing a huge chunk of time. There is just way too much risk in that rotation for a league like Tout where it is hard to find quality pitching on the wire.
I still disagree with you on the Indians you targeted though~. Stubbs and Reynolds are not going to be good for that team, the park is just too brutal on righties and inflates Ks, completely wrong situation for two guys who are already marginal players.
Yeah, I pretty much hate Reynolds this year, but in an OBP league, valued him as an early teens pick. With AVG, he’s close to worthless.
You might be wrong about Cano & Kinsler…
Last year, Cano’s walk rate was 8.8% vs 8.2% for Kinsler. Career rates are a different story though. But the OBP format doesn’t hurt Cano’s value that much.
Yeah. Last year, cano was 13th overall in ba, and… 14th in obp.
His 3 year obp average is .370, 22nd among qualified players. Kinsler is 64 at .350. Sure, there’s some drop off there, since cano is consistently around the top 10 in ba, but cano is still a lot
Better than kinsler in obp.
Plus with nobody else who can hit in the Yankees lineup they’ll just start walking Cano! I’m only half kidding!
You can’t look it at that way. You need to compare Cano’s average relative to middle infield to his OBP relative to middle infield. His average is much better since he hits .300, but his OBP isn’t as special.
Thanks for the clarification. The ba and obp distribution for ss and 2b over the last 3 years is basically the same, with the biggest difference being that cano is on an island in ba, while there are 3 guys whos obp match up with him. So i guess i disagree more with the categorization that cano loses a lot of value (though he does lose some), when it’s more that kinsler has huge gains from the format.The insight into the method is appreciated.
Yeah, maybe it was my use of the word “a lot”. Cano lost like $4 of value and was clearly not worthy of a 4th overall pick, which is where he was taken.
I think I like a different crew of later-round players than you (aside from Cashner, whom I will not lose out on). I’m with you almost 100% on your early-round picks though, 1 through 15 (I’m lukewarm on the Jeter pick).
Wow, Votto at 7th overall in an OBP league is solid gold. He should have been no lower than 2nd or 3rd.
The hitting looks great. I am not a fan of the pitching. Both of your comeback candidates have lost significant velocity over the years. As you know, velocity doesn’t usually return so they will either learn to pitch with diminished stuff (and get diminished results) or be a complete disaster like last year. Kind of a lose/lose. Garza just doesn’t seem on track to recover at all and Billingsley is TJ surgery waiting to happen. I do like the Cashner pick and he should return by opening day or just miss a start.
We all know the truism that you won’t win a league with your first several draft picks but you surely can lose one with them .The winning strategy seems to be —take it safe early on and then take risks on upside with the later picks . That looks like what you have done and if a few of your risks work out you look golden .Taking safe 15th round talent in the 15th round is not a very likely winning strategy .
Kinsler looks like a huge risk as a 2nd rounder, though it would help to know the specific slots in the first 3 rounds. The difference between the #16 and #30 pick is probably bigger than the difference between a 15th rounder and a 25th rounder.
But Kinsler I have overall #58. He had a fairly mediocre season, and while not old, some players age quicker than others. I always ask the question, what if last year is really true. His OPS went from .382 to .355 to .326, while his K/W reversed dramatically. And he has had a poor ST, though I wouldn’t give it a material weight, it does tend to reinforce a mediocre 2012. I have no idea how you expect him to out-perform either Pedroia or Zobrist.
It’s all easier in retrospect, but you could have had Posey and Zobrist instead of Kinsler and Holliday. I really don’t see those two sets of players being that close.
And Lincecum is a straight gamble.
Remember, it’s an OBP league. Kinsler gains value in this format. Ahh, I assume you meant OBP when you typed OPS. Amazingly, all the projection systems are projecting a mid-.340 OBP from Kinsler, which is very solid for a second baseman. I had him valued just a bit more than Pedroia, and Pedroia a bit more than Zobrist. I think he also clearly has the most upside of the 3. I don’t see why ST stats should be given any weight whatsoever. It’s meaningless for veterans. I’m much, much rather have the Kinsler combo. Taking a catcher so early is a huge risk in itself, and then I’d prob get knocked for that!
Yes, that was supposed to be OBP, muscle memory issues abound. All projection systems project a mid-.360 OPS from Zobrist, and low-.360s for Pedroia.
Better BA, OBP, OPS, and SLG, plus more PAs, plus better positioning value.
Not to rub it in, but you almost couldn’t have been right with Kinsler/Holliday over Zobrist/Posey.
Kinsler has been a disappointment mostly because he has been injured. Zobrist has been a disappointment himself and Holliday has also earned less value than expected. Of course, it doesn’t really matter because I’m in first and have been for the past couple of months. So clearly other things have worked out.
Interesting team, Mike. Like the offense though I think you look a bit light on power (especially for you). You’re rolling the dice on SP – loved the Sabathia pick (preferred him to Grey’s Chapman pick) but way too many question marks/injury risks for my taste. And with 15 teams and $100 FAAB, it’s going to be hard to backfill multiple SP spots if/when necessary…
Just ran my team projections and am forecasting 264 homers. That’s prob a bit higher than others would project for me due to me being more bullish on Ruggiano and projecting a bit more health for Utley than others I’m sure.
Yup, pitching staff that way by design. The fewer reserves makes it more challenging, but I’d rather have a top offense and worry about pitching in-season than being mediocre everywhere.
Looking forward to Grey’s recap.
FWIW, my post-draft analysis has you with the 4th most valuable team with above-average offense and slightly below average pitching which fits your general drafting objectives. Just think you could’ve minimized some pitching risk by not taking multiple guys on the wrong side of the FBv curve (Lincecum, Haren) and whose health/playing time has question marks (Garza, Cashner, Bauer, Billingsley, Archer, Peralta). It’s conceivable that you have only 3 SPs pitching in the major leagues in April. Keep your fingers cross on C-Bills (whom I drafted on some teams) and that at least one of Bauer/Peralta/Cashner start in April…
That’s good to know. It’s always valuable to hear projections from other league members, since of course unless I really screwed up, I’m going to project myself for the best team using my own projections.
Lincecum was hitting 92-94 mph yesterday, which is awesome. Haren was also hitting 89-91 and touched 93, so his velocity looks to rebound as well. But yeah, lots of question marks!
I play a 16 team OBP league with OF seperated into LF CF RF. I am going to be left with the choice of Cespedes and Kinsler in my 3rd round… any thoughts Pod (or anyone for that matter)? Keep in mind the scarcity of LF is a pretty big deal which inflates Cespedes’ value a bit. Any comments would be much appreciated, I’m pulling my hair out over it.
I can’t value players in league formats I don’t play in. Input your settings into Last Player Picked and it should give you an idea. I’d just be guessing since I’ve never played in a league that splits the outfield slots. http://lastplayerpicked.zxq.net/
I’d definitely take Cespedes, even without a boost from your league settings. He looks to be in line for a huge season. Be sure to grab Zobrist in the fifth, if possible. Criminally underrated, especially with Shortstop eligibility now. Should finish top 3 Shortstop, top 5 2nd base.
Thanks! Very helpful site I did not know about. I’ll keep all this in mind while I stress for the next 12 days.