Night one is in the books! Only one game tonight, but hallelujah, baseball’s back! No blown saves or bullpen drama tonight, but the odds are that’s not going to be the case tomorrow!

• Drum roll, please. The season’s first save goes to… Erik Bedard? If I was a wittier Rotographs writer, I’d make some elaborate April Fool’s quip about rushing to your wire to pick up Bedard (maybe while messing around with the closer grid), but there’s a reason I’ll never be allowed to write for NotGraphs. Bedard piggybacked off starter Bud Norris; throwing 3 1/3 scoreless innings and satisfying the last option in MLB Rule 10.19 (a pitcher can earn a save by finishing a game effectively while pitching 3+ innings). Congrats to you if you backed into a “SV” while actually starting Bedard at the back end of your fantasy rotation. Don’t be offended that I’m taking the under on 0.5 saves the rest of the way, though.

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Ladies and gentlemen, today is the day that the games matters. Make sure you set your lineups and to start keeping track of your innings or games started limits.

On today’s agenda:
1. Collin Cowgill as the New York Mets’ starting center fielder
2. A Texas Ranger gets the green light on the base path
3.The Arizona Diamondbacks finally choose their fifth starter
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• Bruce Rondon was optioned to AAA Thursday, ending speculation as to whether the flamethrowing, but wild, 22-year-old was going to break camp as the Tigers closer. Rondon didn’t help his case by allowing 17 hits and nine walks in 12.1 innings this spring, but has a live enough arm that he should climb into the Tigers bullpen at some point (whether or not as closer remains to be seen).

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Two things that are generally overrated: Five Guys and Nutella
Two things that are impossibly underrated: The weekend and naps — especially naps on the weekend
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Like some of the other newer writers here at RotoGraphs, this is my first entry in the Bold Predictions.

Here’s to hoping .300 is still good enough for the Hall of Fame.

Feast up commenters!

10. Despite injury, Adam Eaton will still steal 40+ bases.

Not exactly BOLD, I know. Trying to ease y’all into this. But if Eaton returns by mid-May or earlier as advertised, he’ll still have enough time to wreak havoc on the basepaths.

9. Andrelton Simmons will score 80 runs, swipe 25 bags.

The Braves shortstop is more known for his leather, but with a full-season leading off in front of Heyward and the Upton brothers, Simmons should really flourish. In addition to the 80 runs and 25 swipes, Simmons could chip in a .275 or better batting average, giving those a nice return who selected him in the late-rounds of their fantasy drafts.

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After reading my ten hopefully-bold-enough predictions for the upcoming season, be sure to peruse the other Bold Prediction articles that have been published this week. We can then reconvene once the regular season has ended and discuss just how foolish the majority of these predictions proved to be.

It’ll be fun. Kind of.

(1) Starlin Castro will see his batting average fall under .275.

Although I love the power/speed combination offered by Castro and he just turned 23 last weekend, I’m worried his poor plate discipline will rise up and continue to take a bite out of his batting average this season. Consider this: his O-Swing% rose to 37.4% in 2012, while his strikeout rate, swinging-strike rate and swing percentage all increased in a similar fashion for the second-consecutive season. Sure, he’s young and has ample time to develop his skills, but those peripheral numbers are not trending in the right direction. Every projection model on his FanGraphs player page has him hitting over .290. I’m not so certain we’ll see that in 2013.

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Being the team player that I am — as well as a glutton for punishment from the comments section — I am about to share with you the reasons why you’ll win your league this season. These are my highly coveted secrets of the trade. Normally a transaction of this magnitude is done in a shady alley in the dead of the night, involving non-sequential bills and lots of glances over my shoulder. I guess in theory you could be reading this in a shady alley in the dead of night, but I digress. These are my 10 bold predictions for the 2013 fantasy season.
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I’ll be honest with you friends: I don’t love my bold predictions as much as I did last year. But I did spend a lot of time researching them so I think I have at least a somewhat decent statistical backing to what I see here.

And similarly, these aren’t bets I’d take with the money straight up. If I were in Las Vegas — perish the thought — I’d take these bets if I got pretty good odds. In spots where I don’t really have a strong fantasy angle — ROTOgraphs, after all — I’ll try throw in a little somethin’ somethin’ that I might see which could help. Read the rest of this entry »

Yeah, I just used a Pat Benetar song for a post title. If that song was playing, I feel like I should be at the Skate Deck, tube socks pulled high, just praying Tracy Piercy would come over and say hi to me. I’ve hit rock bottom. And third basemen are entirely to blame for my condition.

I have third base as kind of my “beat” here at RotoGraphs. I’ve written a lot about third basemen for the last two seasons. I’ve grown quite fond of many of them. And this year, they’re breaking my heart.

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If you haven’t drafted your fantasy team yet, then sit back and enjoy the fact that there simply isn’t enough time for you to be the moron at whom I am directing this post. If you have, then I implore you…DON’T BE THAT GUY!

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