Alan Harrison’s 10 Bold Fantasy Predictions for 2013
Like some of the other newer writers here at RotoGraphs, this is my first entry in the Bold Predictions.
Here’s to hoping .300 is still good enough for the Hall of Fame.
Feast up commenters!
10. Despite injury, Adam Eaton will still steal 40+ bases.
Not exactly BOLD, I know. Trying to ease y’all into this. But if Eaton returns by mid-May or earlier as advertised, he’ll still have enough time to wreak havoc on the basepaths.
9. Andrelton Simmons will score 80 runs, swipe 25 bags.
The Braves shortstop is more known for his leather, but with a full-season leading off in front of Heyward and the Upton brothers, Simmons should really flourish. In addition to the 80 runs and 25 swipes, Simmons could chip in a .275 or better batting average, giving those a nice return who selected him in the late-rounds of their fantasy drafts.
8. Jordan Zimmermann to finish ‘13 as a top 15 fantasy starter.
For the second year in a row the Nationals’ right-hander will increase his strikeout rate and keep his ERA under 3.00, but is the beneficiary of more run support which increases his win total to 16. The Nationals finish with two hurlers (Stephen Strasburg) in the top 15 and both names will show up on Cy Young ballots at the conclusion of the 2013 campaign.
7. Jay Bruce outperforms Giancarlo Stanton.
Bruce’s home run and RBI totals have increased in each of the past four years. Now entering his age 26 season, the Reds’ outfielder is primed for his first 40 homer, 100 RBI campaign in the Majors. Oh, and he’ll outperform Giancarlo Stanton in fantasy who is being drafted about two rounds ahead of him.
6. Mike Trout will not be a top 25 fantasy player in 2013
Yes, I know our own Jeff Zimmerman noted Trout would not be a top 15 fantasy player this season, but I think he’ll “fall” even further. Trout will struggle to match his runs scored and stolen base totals — even in a full-season — and are the power numbers from ’12 sustainable? I’m not so sure. A 21.5% HR/FB% will likely come back to earth and Trout will finish with about 20 homers and 75 RBI, just outside of the top 25 overall.
5. Wilton Lopez will lead the Rockies in saves.
There are a few other names I like in the Rockies bullpen, such as Rex Brothers and Matt Belisle, but I went with the former Astro instead. When Rafael Betancourt gets traded before the deadline (another BOLD prediction!), Lopez’s worm burning skills (55% GB%) and 6.75 K/BB will leapfrog him into ninth-inning duties.
4. Jose Fernandez is the most valuable fantasy starter in Miami, post All-Star Break.
The 20-year-old Cuban defector went 14-1 with a 1.75 ERA (0.93 WHIP) and a 4.5 K/BB between two levels of A ball in 2012. He’s got an insane arsenal — an overpowering four-seamer (that touches 99 mph), a groundout inducing two-seamer, two breaking pitches and a plus change — that he commands well and isn’t afraid to throw. He’ll start the season on the farm polishing his offerings, but don’t be surprised if the confident youngster packs his bags for the Majors mid-summer and becomes the biggest fish in Miami not named Giancarlo.
3. Your National League strikeout leader will be: Jeff Samardzija
The former Notre Dame football star is developing into a monster on the mound. In each of the last three seasons, he’s increased his strikeout percentage while reducing the amount of free passess allowed. In just 28 starts in twenty-twelve, Samardzija whiffed 180 batters — and with a full-season of starts on the docket, the right-hander should easily eclipse the 200 plateau and challenge for the National League lead.
2. Billy Hamilton to lead the Reds, and the National League, in stolen bases in ‘13.
This isn’t saying much considering the team’s 2012 leader in swipes, Drew Stubbs (30), was shipped off to the Indians in the offseason leaving newly-acquired Shin-Soo Choo (21) and Brandon Phillips (15) as the team’s biggest base-stealing threats in the starting lineup. But with Hamilton getting a mid-summer cup-of-coffee after ironing out some defensive wrinkles, he could potentially take over the team and league lead in swipes during a homestand against the Metropolitans in late-September.
1. B.J. Upton, Justin Upton and Jason Heyward will go 100/70.
The three amigos went a combined 72/70 last year while missing just over 30 games. But in 2013 they come together like Voltron to reach the combined 100/70 plateau while yielding at least one MVP candidate. Oh, and they very well may combine for 500 strikeouts as well.
In addition to contributing to the RotoGraphs blog, you can find Alan at his own site, TheFantasyFix.com and follow his nonsense on Twitter @TheFantasyFix.
The problem with your Trout assessment is this: 22 HR and 76 RBI will acommpany what is likely 100+ runs, a decent average and probably 40 steals. That’s not a top 25 player? Hmmm. Or maybe you think he falls terribly under those totals?
He’s not sniffing 22 HRs, no.
Have to agree. I was thinking the same thing upon reading that statement. He even admits the runs and steals will be there, Trout would have to end up with a horrible average to not make the top 25.
Right, had to make some adjustments to my “wording,” but still feel he doesn’t finish among the top 25 overall.
AVG:.292 HR:31 R:99 RBI:105 SB:1
AVG:.285 HR:20 R:110 RBI:75 SB:37
Compare. 1st one is Prince Fielder’s Steamer projection. 2nd one is a reasonable Trout guesstimate. Even if Trout has a major regression, he still would be near top 10 talent.
I don’t think the Trout predictions makes sense. You say that he will “be able to match his runs scored and stolen base totals in a full-season,” and hit 22 HR and 76 RBI. You didn’t mention batting average, but even if he regresses there quite heavily and hits .280, that combined with 129 runs, 22 HR, 76 RBIs, and 49 steals has to be top 25, right?
I do think it’s plausible that Trout has a major sophomore slump. However, matching his run and steal totals from 2012 would most likely put him in first place in 2 categories. It’d be hard for him to do that and not be top 25 overall.
Errr…will have to adjust my projections.
That’s better.
Although, as someone who will own Trout for the next 3 years in an AL only league, I hope you’re wrong!
I think the Trout risk has less to do with production and more to do with being an injury risk. He’s a hustle guy, running a lot, and bulked up a bit over the winter. I could see him falling outside of the top 25, but only because he’s injured sliding or running into an OF wall and misses a month of production
Well that’s just silly. If you are going to project injury on someone who hasn’t ever had a problem with it you go from bold to imaginary
An interesting bunch of predictions . I think I disagree with every one of them except possibly Simmons .
Thanks for reading, dirick! Being the last of the RG team to chip in my BOLD predicitons wasn’t easy. Had to go really BOLD on some. Here’s to hoping that at least the Simmons projection is correct! Cheers!
I think the Braves OF prediction is very possible.
Thanks bud! Sure hope it works out! Thanks for reading.
jeez, jay bruce is only going to be 26?
Yup. Similarly baffling, Freeman is only 23 as is bumgarner. All 3 should provide robust lines: rotobanter.com/ballsyforecast. Should have added Bruce to this list bc I agree with Allen based on the Runs Produced.
Yup, same age as Felix!
Incredible, isn’t it?
Hey guys, I really enjoyed the this Bold Projection series. So much of modern analysis is based on everybody regressing to the mean (and rightfully so), but that sometimes tends to obscure the fact that surprising things happen in baseball–guys grow up, break out, have career years, etc. It’s good to think outside the box, even to play the hunch once in a while. Good stuff! BTW, Matt Harvey will be this year’s breakout pitcher.
Samardzija leading the league in K’s. Bold indeed, he will have to outperform some big names
I could see it, except for than one Washington guy.
If Trout hits .280 with 20 HR and 75 RBI (along with 100 runs and 40 SBs) he’ll probably be a top 10 player. That’s why Trout is so awesome. I personally don’t think he regresses all that much (outside of BA), but even if he does regress he’s a near lock to be among the top performers yet again.
So you think Zim will have a better season than Gio in Washington?
Guess my Jose Fernandez prediction is already wrong since he made the team out of camp? Rats!
He can still be the best Marlins pitcher in the 2nd half, though this move probably makes it more likely he’s shut down late in the year.
Oh, that Mike Trout, there’ll sure be a lot of guys ahead of him…